Norway and Great Power Politics – Geopolitics, Technology and Climate (NISP)

This research programme is structured around three meta-trends: Geopolitical developments, technological development and climate change. Changes within these trends and their effects on the overall strategic importance of the North-Atlantic area and conditions for Norwegian security are examined.

The program consists of five pillars: 1) American technology and doctrine: Implications for strategic stability; 2) Russian «Grand Strategy» in the High North; 3) the Nordic countries’ position in a new security landscape; 4) Norway and the strategic balance between the Great Powers; and 5) implications for Norwegian security-policy and the analytical tools we utilize. The project delivers pertinent in-depth analysis within the five pillars as well as analysis of their collective overall effects.

To a stronger degree then in the past the North-Atlantic area is becoming a full-fledged theater of operations. The area is connected to an Atlantic maritime theater in the West and a continental theater in the South. These developments are an important part of the foundation of the project and influences the production of analysis. In spite of geopolitics’ anchoring in lasting geography, it changes over time due to the emergence of new Great Powers, new essential resources, increased navigability caused by climate change, new technology and new means of communication. The shifts in the geopolitical power dynamics between the West and Russia which manifests themselves profoundly in the North-Atlantic area is pivotal to the project. The recent shift in dynamics between the United States and China is also key, as it will gain greater influence in the region over time. This backdrop underscores the topicality of the project and its’ relevance to Norwegian security policy.