From ability to defend to willingness to defend – What can Norway learn from Ukraine?

The strong will to defend sparked in Ukraine by Russia’s war of aggression has demonstrated the need for deeper analysis of what willingness to defend is—and how it can be strengthened—including in Norway. Defense capability does not automatically create a willingness to defend. Willingness to resist and defend require a collective sense of belonging, trust in key decision makers and institutions such as the military and intelligence services, and solidarity—that other citizens are also willing to make the sacrifices that a willingness to defend demands. But, as Ukraine demonstrates, such trust does not necessarily have to extend to other parts of the state apparatus or the media.

This study builds on research into Norwegian and Ukrainian willingness to defend, combining knowledge from both countries to propose specific ways Norwegian policy can draw on insights from Ukraine. To address these questions, we will collect new individual-level data through a quantitative and randomized survey in Kyiv in collaboration with local Ukrainian partners. The survey will use a battery of questions derived from findings and hypotheses in research on Ukraine's willingness to defend itself. It will be supplemented by elite interviews in Ukraine and Norway. The interviews with civil service leaders and military structures will map the prevailing hypotheses about what builds willingness to resist and defend at the national level, how it evolves over time (including endurance and resilience), and how factors such as reservists, conscripts, and changes to legal framework influence the willingness to defend. The team brings together leading researchers on defense and security policies in Norway and Ukraine. The final report will present our findings and offer concrete policy recommendations to Norwegian authorities for strengthening resilience and willingness to defend across sectors of Norwegian society.

This project is funded by the Norwegian Ministry of Defense.