Center
Norwegian Centre for Geopolitics
Head of Center for Geopolitics
Events
The Centre will strengthen knowledge about international power relations and the positions of the major powers, and how this affects Norway's interests and politics.
The world is in a period of sharp intensification of political and economic rivalry. Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine is an expression of this, but political and economic tensions between the US and China have also increased. The rivalry now takes place under different conditions than in previous historical periods. There is a different distribution of power and geographical focal points, intertwined global investments and trade relations, several institutional players and rapid technological changes.
- PLEASE VISIT THE CENTRE'S MAIN PAGE FOR NEWS, EVENTS AND PUBLICATIONS FROM ALL PARTNERS.
The rivalry will have a strong impact on Norway. Therefore, we must prepare foreign policy responses and strategies based on new forms of geopolitical analysis.
The Centre is led by NUPI's Ole Jacob Sending and is a partnership with the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, UiT – The Arctic University of Norway and the University of Oslo.
Together, the Centre combines country-specific expertise on USA, China, the EU and Russia, regional expertise on the Arctic, Asia, Africa, Europe and America, and expertise on key themes such as security, multilateralism, growth and innovation, and energy and sustainability.
The Norwegian Centre for Geopolitics is financed by the Research Council of Norway.
EVENTS
- USA after the election: Consequences for the Nordics and the geopolitical landscape, at Sentralen, Oslo, 14 November 2024.
- The New Superpower: India's Role in the Arctic, at Youngs, Oslo, 10 October 2024
- Arctic Security Conference 2024, at Litteraturhuset, 12 - 13 September 2024.
- Evolving Linkages Between Indo-Pacific and European Security: Challenges and Their Dynamics at NUPI, 13 September 2024.
- The South Caucasus after 2022: Domestic developments and geopolitical challenges at NUPI, Oslo, 13 September 2024.
- USA, Kina og fremtiden at Sentralen, Oslo, 10 June 2024, 09:00 AM.
- International order and strategy in a new geopolitical era at Sentralen, Oslo, 4 June 2024, 08:30 AM - 12:00 AM. Sign up here.
- Global China and Infrastructure Power, The techno-politics of the ‘China Model’ of development at the University of Oslo, 29 February 2024, 10:15 AM – 11:45 AM.
- The election in Russia - what is it about? A panel conversation about the election in Russia, UiT the Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, 29 February 2024, 18.00 - 19.30.
- Launch of the Centre held on 26 October 2023 (in Norwegian):
PUBLICATIONS
- OP-ED: Fish and geopolitics (in Norwegian), in Framsenteret, by Professor Alf Håkon Hoel, UiT the Arctic University of Norway, Norwegian Centre for Geopolitics, Institute of Marine Research. January 2025.
- OPINION: India's Arctic imperative in The Hindu, by Abhjit Singh and Andreas Østhagen (Fridtjof Nansen Institute), 16 April 2024
- OPINION: Is it time for 'developing' China to start funding UN climate aid? in South China Morning Post, by Gørild Heggelund and Iselin Stensdal, Fridtjof Nansen Institute, 4 February 2024
- OP-ED: China - fish and geopolitics, in Framsenteret, by Professor Alf Håkon Hoel, UiT the Arctic University of Norway, 4 September 2023
OTHER ACTIVITY
- PODCAST: Hva vil Donald Trump med Europa? (Aftenpodden, 18 September 2024)
- PODCAST: How to Become a Hegemon with Daniel Nexon and Ole Jacob Sending:
Articles
Government allocates NOK 45 million to Geopolitics Research Centre led by NUPI
New publications
The Free and Open Indo-Pacific: Economics, Politics, and Norms
Japan’s “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP) strategy aims to promote economic prosperity, peace, free trade, and the rule of law across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Scholars primarily have interpreted FOIP through three lenses: economics, security, and norms. Economically, it reflects Japan’s support for regional connectivity, trade, and infrastructure development as both a growth strategy and a counter to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In security terms, FOIP emphasizes maritime readiness, defense cooperation with like-minded partners, and adherence to international maritime law amid tensions in the South and East China Seas. Normatively, it advances Japan’s values-based diplomacy, promoting democracy, human rights, and a rules-based order in contrast to authoritarian models. Since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe introduced FOIP in 2016, the concept has been adopted and adapted by many and diverse actors, each aligning it with their own strategic aims. This flexibility, unlike the more centralized BRI, is a hallmark of FOIP, resulting in a co-created, evolving, and often strategically ambiguous foreign policy. Dozens of countries from across the world incorporate FOIP language in their foreign and security policies, forming what some may consider a “narrative alliance” in the international system. The scholarship on FOIP is growing rapidly, yet there remain significant theoretical, methodological, and empirical questions unanswered.
“Ambassador, you’re really spoiling us!” Diplomatic gifts and profligate autocrats
Qatar’s “unconditional” gift of a $400 million Boeing 747-8 to Donald Trump serves as a reminder that states have long used diplomatic gifts to impress others, forge bonds, and secure favorable treatment. However, in an age where citizens and media outlets routinely scrutinize public spending, there is good reason to think that not all governments are able to justify lavishing large sums on such interactions. In this paper, we test the claim that autocracies are less constrained in their diplomatic gift giving due to an absence of domestic accountability mechanisms. To evidence this, the authors draw on a dataset of diplomatic gifts presented to U.S. presidents from 2001 to 2018. The results show that autocratic regimes systematically spend more on diplomatic gifts than do democracies. Supplementary analyses suggest that this is, in part, due to new media in democracies being able to criticize profligate diplomatic practices. Interviews with Norwegian diplomats corroborate the importance of domestic media scrutiny in shaping diplomatic gift giving. The article contributes to scholarship that probes the relationship between regime type and public spending, by showing its relevance to diplomatic interactions.
Energy as a tool of statecraft after Ukraine and Gaza
The wars in Ukraine and Gaza have transformed how energy functions as a tool of statecraft, revealing that contemporary energy-related power extends far beyond the manipulation of commodity trade. Direct targeting of electricity systems, fuel infrastructure, and even nuclear power facilities has become a central feature of warfare, exposing the vulnerability of modern, electrified societies. These attacks, combined with intensified forms of economic coercion such as sanctions, price caps, and market reconfiguration, underscore the inadequacy of the traditional “energy weapon” concept, which focuses narrowly on supply disruptions by exporting states. Instead, the new energy security landscape is shaped by interdependence, infrastructure exposure, cyber risk, and shifts triggered by the global energy transition. As decarbonization advances, vulnerabilities migrate from fuels to technologies, value chains, and critical raw materials, generating new geopolitical asymmetries and strategic dependencies. For European policymakers, these developments demand a reconceptualization of energy security that prioritizes systemic resilience, protection of civilian energy infrastructure, and integrated approaches to economic statecraft, defence planning, and climate policy. Understanding energy as both a strategic asset and a potential target is essential for navigating a future in which energy systems are increasingly central to conflict, coercion, and geopolitical competition.
Japan and Strategic Connectivity: Policies, Partners, and Possibilities
This report analyses the increasingly important role of infrastructure development and connectivity as a central arena of global geopolitical competition, particularly focusing on Japan’s connectivity policy under the banner of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific. The core aim of this report is to explore how Japan seeks to utilise strategic connectivity, specifically through its multi-layered approach, as a pivotal geopolitical instrument to project influence and promote a rules-based order, amidst rising competition with China. The report offers ten actionable policy recommendations, in particular, for the European Union.
Utenrikspolitikkens mål er å gjøre innenrikspolitikken mulig
This policy brief is in Norwegian only.
Non-Western Visions of International Order
The scholarship on the concept of order has been expanding within international relations. The continuous upheaval of world politics first triggered a broad debate on the resilience of the liberal international order (LIO), which then led to scholarship on alternative conceptions of order, especially outside of the West. This review focuses on this body of research on non-Western views of order. It is structured geographically, taking a tour of scholarship from and on East and Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa, South Asia and the Indo-Pacific, and Eurasia. Although each region has its own intellectual traditions, we observe that these views portray the LIO in a less idealized form, exposing its hierarchical and Western-centered nature. However, while pushing for more inclusive and plural arrangements, these critiques have not yet amounted to the articulation of radical alternative ordering projects.
Energy as a tool of statecraft after Ukraine and Gaza
The wars in Ukraine and Gaza have transformed how energy functions as a tool of statecraft, revealing that contemporary energy-related power extends far beyond the manipulation of commodity trade. Direct targeting of electricity systems, fuel infrastructure, and even nuclear power facilities has become a central feature of warfare, exposing the vulnerability of modern, electrified societies. These attacks, combined with intensified forms of economic coercion such as sanctions, price caps, and market reconfiguration, underscore the inadequacy of the traditional “energy weapon” concept, which focuses narrowly on supply disruptions by exporting states. Instead, the new energy security landscape is shaped by interdependence, infrastructure exposure, cyber risk, and shifts triggered by the global energy transition. As decarbonization advances, vulnerabilities migrate from fuels to technologies, value chains, and critical raw materials, generating new geopolitical asymmetries and strategic dependencies. For European policymakers, these developments demand a reconceptualization of energy security that prioritizes systemic resilience, protection of civilian energy infrastructure, and integrated approaches to economic statecraft, defence planning, and climate policy. Understanding energy as both a strategic asset and a potential target is essential for navigating a future in which energy systems are increasingly central to conflict, coercion, and geopolitical competition.