The NB8–Ukraine Security Nexus: Shaping Europe’s Future Defence Architecture

Europe’s security order is undergoing a structural transformation against the backdrop of a multipolar world. Russia’s protracted war against Ukraine and its full-scale sub-threshold warfare against Europe are creating a security environment in which mistakes will carry historic consequences. In this emerging security landscape, Ukraine is no longer merely a recipient of security assistance; it is an important contributor to the development of Europe’s defence capacity.

The Nordic-Baltic Eight (NB8)-Ukraine security nexus has the potential to become the operational core of a wider European response to Russia’s long-standing security threat. To achieve this, Ukraine must be integrated into Europe’s emerging security architecture now.

Data from the Everywhere War Tracker underscores the urgency: more than 450 incidents in the Euro-Atlantic region between 2022 and October 2026, in which Russia’s role has been established. At the same time, although every NB8 state concluded a 10-year bilateral security cooperation agreement with Ukraine, turning these agreements into operational partnerships has proved difficult and slow: for instance, a solid rocket fuel plant planned in Denmark by Fire Point has been delayed until 2027.

What else, beyond its battlefield experience, can Ukraine offer Europe? Why might a “frozen” war turn out to be the calm before a larger storm? What role should Ukraine play in European security? You will find the answers to each of these questions in the report “The NB8–Ukraine Security Nexus: Shaping Europe’s Future Defence Architecture”.

The report was prepared by the Sahaidachnyi Security Center (SSC) in cooperation with the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) and the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS) at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs (UI).