Publications
War in Europe and French Contributions to European Security
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, several European countries have had to reconsider their security and defense policies. This also applies to France. Although the changes in French security and defense policy do not represent a complete break with previous policy, the threat from the East has now gained increased significance for French defense planning as well. The most important changes in French security and defense policy are related to a shift in its policy towards Russia, increased support for Ukraine, and last but not least, a revised threat assessment and a considerable increase in defense budgets. With Russian aggression and uncertainty regarding the long-term U.S. commitment to European security, France’s focus on strategic autonomy has also gained broader support among European allies.
Polen og krigen i Ukraina: Er stemningen i ferd med å snu?
The main aim of this article is to map how the Russian invasion of Ukraine has influenced Polish attitudes and, consequently, Polish politics. The article begins with a thorough review of Polish attitudes toward Ukraine, Ukrainians, and the war. It also analyzes whether Polish attitudes differ from those in other NATO and EU countries. This analysis of attitudes is followed by an eclectic examination of the measures implemented by Polish authorities in response to the war, based on various understandings of the forces shaping international relations, with particular emphasis on explanations rooted in realist, liberal-institutionalist, and constructivist perspectives of international relations.
Fra kullsvart nåtid til grønn fremtid : Vest-Balkans vei mot EUs energimarked og grønn omstilling
Seks land på Vest-Balkan er i ulike stadier av prosessen mot å bli EU-medlemmer: Albania, Bosnia og Hercegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, Nord-Makedonia og Serbia. Disse blir her referert til som “Vest-Balkan 6 (VB6)”. Før medlemskap i EU må en rekke kriterier knyttet til demokrati og rettsstat være oppfylt. I tillegg må landene oppfylle kravene for det indre marked, herunder et velfungerende energimarked. Samtidig må de bidra til en grønn omstilling av energisektoren.
The Maritime Zeitenwende: Germany in the Northern Waters
In this report the authors study recent developments in German maritime defence policy and practice with a particular view on German-Norwegian relations. These relations are crucial, as the current security landscape challenges old geographical domains, particularly a stark division between operations in the Baltic Sea and North Sea. These areas are now being re-defined in and through military activity and technological advancements to address the security situation – including the increasing importance of protecting critical infrastructure – which will further contribute to policy development in the short and longer term.
How to Support Ukraine: Peace Will Require Ukrainian Strength
A revived Western effort to finance Ukraine’s war effort will send a clear message to Russia of the West’s commitment. It may also help revitalize the West’s defense industrial production and leave U.S. and European security on firmer footing. This will be costly, but it is a cost that both the United States and Europe can easily manage. Furthermore, continued Western support should go hand in hand with a renewed effort to address its critical manpower shortages. The war and the world may be currently turning against Ukraine. But this is not a permanent condition. Russia is also suffering greatly, experiencing massive battlefield losses and economic strain. Europe, the United States, and Ukraine can turn the tide of the conflict back in Kyiv’s direction. Doing so is likely the only way to bring Russia to the negotiating table.
Trailblazers in a Warming World? The Agency of African Actors in Climate, Peace, and Security
A growing body of evidence indicates how climate change can, combined with other factors, increase the risk of violent conflict. Such claims have particularly been made in African contexts. This article studies the agency exerted by African actors in shaping international agendas on climate, peace, and security in the cases of (1) the UN Security Council, (2) The African Union and (3) COP27. The analysis shows how this engagement has included diplomacy, discursive innovation, epistemic engagement, and policy coordination. We argue that the continent’s growing geopolitical centrality is enabling African actors to exert a nonaligned foreign policy on their own terms.
Differentiating Hybrid Threats against the High North and Baltic Sea regions
Russia’s grey-zone threats and actions are a major concern for bordering countries who are on the receiving end of such actions, both physical and cyber. This policy brief examines how such hybrid threats affect countries in the High North and Baltic Sea regions and evaluates the challenges related to response and countermeasures. NATO's policy is that the member nations are responsible for building resilience and responding to hybrid threats or attacks. To avoid invalid interpretations or paralysis in assessment and response to such complex and diverse threats, they should be differentiated and dealt with separately rather than boxed into a wide cognitive basket. This Policy Brief is part of the project ‘Norway as an in-between for Russia: Ambivalent space, hybrid measures’ financed by the Norwegian MoD.
How are these two supposed to cooperate?
They don’t have much in common, Donald Trump and Keir Starmer. But does that mean we are about to see a British showdown with the United States? In this op-ed in Dagsavisen, NUPI researchers Øyvind Svendsen and Paul Beaumont raise this question. At first glance, the two leaders appear to be diametrical opposites. On one side, the somewhat rigid social democrat and human rights lawyer Starmer; on the other, the ruthless rule-breaker Trump. Can they cooperate at all? Must the British now break away from their special relationship with their American guiding star?
Winning the Peace: The Role of Agonistic and Adaptive Peacebuilding in Sustaining Social Cohesion in Ukraine
This article analyzes the role that Ukrainian peacebuilders play in contributing to strengthening social cohesion in war-time Ukraine. It studies an initiative to facilitate dialogue between two jurisdictions of the Orthodox church to develop new insights into the role that dialogue facilitation and peace mediation can play as a form of internal peacebuilding. We analyze and assess these dialogue practices in Ukraine from the perspective of two theoretical approaches, namely agonistic peace and adaptive peacebuilding. The efforts of Ukrainian dialogue facilitators and peacebuilders have received little international attention and support, despite the fact that ambitious plans are underway to help rebuild Ukraine, and significant amounts of money are being mobilized for this effort. Our hope is that these efforts will involve the Ukrainian peacebuilding community in their work in order to ensure that their reconstruction efforts are conflict sensitive and peace positive.
The morphology of Putinism: the arrangement of political concepts into a coherent ideology
Scholarly analysis has been divided as to whether Putinism is a coherent ideology. With the decision to invade Ukraine, this question requires reexamination. This article interprets the evolution of Putinism in morphological terms, tracing how political concepts developed into a distinctive ‘thin’ ideology. After interpreting the original formation of Putinism (2000–2012), I unpack how interlinked processes of securitization and culturization reshaped the arrangement of core, adjacent and peripheral concepts. This was preceded by discursive closure between the Kremlin and its ideological antagonists over critical junctures in 2012 and 2014. An emphasis on the reactive, events-driven dynamic of Putinism reveals how it functions as an immanent morale that reinforces preexisting power networks and strives to win the loyalty of the population. Preserving culture and security has become synonymous with maintaining the very existence of the Russian Federation. With the launch of the ‘Special Military Operation’ in February 2022, this ideology was not immediately transformed but rather deployed on a new and more dramatic level. The ideological reconfiguration examined in this article must be understood as a crucial precursor to the decision to escalate the war in Ukraine, which ris reshaping Russia’s political trajectory in dramatic and unpredictable ways.