Publications
From possible conflict to wartime cooperation: Laying the foundations of regional cooperation in the Caspian Sea (2002–2018)
This research paper uses snapshots of media coverage in the Caspian states to explore the stateled region-building efforts around the Caspian Sea from 2002–2018. Counter to the dominant conflict thesis in the literature, the findings suggest that the five states have moved towards more comprehensive political and economic cooperation. Relations have gradually been anchored in an understanding of the Caspian Sea as a shared space with multiple interlinkages and dependencies, even describing it as a “sea of peace and friendship”. This depiction is maintained by the Caspian states, also after the Sea became an arena and lifeline for Russia’s war against Ukraine after February 2022. This paper provides background and analysis of the developing regional cooperation and explores in the conclusion how this cooperation has gained new salience in Russia’s response to the sanction regime.
Digital Borders, Global Ties: The EU’s Dual Quest for Cybersecurity and Digital Sovereignty
The EU's approach to ‘digital sovereignty’ and cybersecurity addresses concerns about geopolitical instability, data ownership, and control over critical digital infrastructure. This policy brief highlights the EU’s ambiguous claim to digital sovereignty, which is not only about controlling the internal digital space but also about navigating external dependencies. As the EU seeks to reduce reliance on external actors and increase autonomy in its digital space, it must navigate the risks of isolation from global markets. This creates a delicate balance between strengthening (cyber)security and fostering international cooperation. The forthcoming EU Cyber Resilience Act (CRA) is illustrative of this tension; while the CRA aims to strengthen digital resilience and autonomy, it underscores the need for the EU to protect its digital borders whilst integrated in the global digital economy. This push for autonomy must account for international interdependencies, especially in cybersecurity, where external partnerships remain crucial. Ultimately, the EU must adopt a nuanced approach that aligns ambitions toward digital sovereignty with the realities of an interconnected world.
Kan Trump avslutte krigen?
President-elect Donald Trump’s statements claiming he will end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours have received considerable attention. What is interesting is not the feasibility of achieving this within a day – which no one believes – but rather the fact that he expresses a desire to bring the war to an end. President Biden’s repeated pledges to support Ukraine “for as long as it takes” have been rightly criticized by Republicans and others for lacking strategic vision. Trump, by contrast, appears to seek a plan to conclude the conflict. However, there is a significant difference between the intention to act and the ability to deliver. What, realistically, can Trump do?
Techno-optimism versus Techno-reality: An analysis of internationally funded technological solutions against illegal unreported and unregulated (IU...
Maritime governance has been immersed in growing techno-optimism. Technological developments have largely increased the capacity of states to render legible activities at sea and thus more effectively govern them. One area in which such techno-optimism has gained force but is yet to prove itself is the fight against Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated (IUU) fishing. While technology-aided international cooperation has been crucial in curbing piracy, it has been slower to tame IUU fishing. In this article, we study international projects introducing technology-based solutions against IUU fishing in West Africa. Triangulating project documentation, donor evaluations, interviews, and other secondary sources, we assess how the techno-optimism driving those initiatives meets the techno-reality of their contexts of implementation. We find that, while grounds for optimism are far from unwarranted, realizing the potential of technological solutions against IUU fishing requires securing parallel cooperation that allows states to transform technology-based awareness into action.
No Escape - On the frontlines of Climate Change, Conflict and Forced Displacement
The report, released today by UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, in collaboration with 13 expert organizations, research institutions and refugee-led groups, uses the latest data to show how climate shocks are interacting with conflict, pushing those who are already in danger into even more dire situations. Of the more than 120 million forcibly displaced worldwide, three-quarters live in countries heavily impacted by climate change. Half are in places affected by both conflict and serious climate hazards, such as Ethiopia, Haiti, Myanmar, Somalia, Sudan and Syria. Authors: (in alphabetical order) Rabeb Aloui (YOUNGO), Vicente Anzellini (IDMC), Ashleigh Basel (Alliance/CGIAR), Jana Birner (UNHCR), Oli Brown (Alp Analytica), Alessandro Craparo (Alliance/CGIAR), Cedric De Coning (NUPI), Margot Fortin (IMPACT Initiatives), Ruby Haji-Naif (YOUNGO), Xiao-Fen Hernan (IDMC), Rose Kobusinge (YOUNGO), Ochan Leomoi (Dadaab Response Association), Jasper Linke (IMPACT Initiatives), Sandor Madar (Alp Analytica), Brigitte Melly (Alliance/CGIAR), Giuliana Nicolucci-Altman (Alp Analytica), Henintsoa Onivola Minoarivelo (Alliance/CGIAR), Mohamed Othowa (Community Aid Network), Sylvain Ponserre (IDMC), Jonathan Tsoka (Alliance/ CGIAR), Cascade Tuholske (Montana State University), Jamon Van Den Hoek (Oregon State University), Kira Vinke (DGAP), Jeremy Wetterwald (IMPACT Initiatives), Michelle Yonetani (UNHCR), Andrew Zimmer (Montana State University).
Reforming the International Financial Architecture: Chinese Perspectives and Broader Developing Country Interests
The international financial architecture has long been ripe for reform, and several reform tracks are currently evolving with the potential to tackle some of the most debated issues. China, which among the top shareholders in all the architecture’s key institutions, is the world’s second-largest economy and the largest official bilateral creditor, plays a critical role in reform discussions. In this report, we discuss central reform issues and consider the Chinese perspectives and their relevance to broader developing country interests. The report concludes that China is actively involved and supports reform initiatives but is wary of changes that move around the bigger issue of country representation and voting.
Emerging powers, the G20, and reform of multilateral institutions
Emerging powers are becoming increasingly important in the global economy, are being courted for support by both the US and China and make up a powerful bloc within informal governance institutions such as the G20. They also voice increasingly vocal calls for reform of the UN, the World Bank and the IMF. This report analyzes how Brazil, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, and South Africa see key reform issues and how they prioritize among different foreign policy objectives in the context of the agenda of the G20.
Introducing the Latin American Transnational Surveillance (LATS) dataset
Transnational surveillance is a powerful tool in the arsenal of autocrats the world over. Despite its pervasive use in extraterritorial coercion, the systematic study of surveillance of regime opponents beyond national borders remains underdeveloped in political science, primarily due to limited data availability. To help fill this gap, we constructed the Latin American Transnational Surveillance dataset, a micro-level dataset based on declassified foreign surveillance reports produced between 1966 and 1986 by autocratic Brazil. Latin American Transnational Surveillance records the identity, locations, social ties and political activism of 17,000 individual targets of transnational surveillance, the vast majority of whom were tracked in neighbouring countries across Latin America. Drawing on these abundant data, we empirically explore existing theoretical insights about the motivations, methods and consequences of transnational surveillance, a task that would be difficult to do using other sources. We also leverage social network analysis to showcase potential applications of Latin American Transnational Surveillance in the testing of collective-action theories of transnational political violence.
Expelled from the Fairytale: The Impact of the Dissident Legacy on Post-1989 Central European Politics
To understand the political dimension of dissident legacies, we need first to understand the components that “made” the dissidents and follow their reconfiguration after 1989, leading to initial empowerment followed by gradual demise of the liberal post-dissident elite. Dissidence in the form that first appeared in the late 1960s and early 1970s in central and eastern Europe constituted a particular mode of political practice, combining open, non-violent dissent with universalist moral claims. The phenomenon of dissidentism was transnational, as political empowerment of oppositionists was achieved through a particular network of relationships between domestic audiences, repressive regimes, and Western media, social movements, trade unions, political parties, and policymakers. The specificities of the dissidents’ empowerment can partly explain key features of post-dissident politics and the visible backlash against former prominent dissidents, which has contributed to the rise of illiberalism and to democratic backsliding. This article traces the post-1989 trajectories of a few who belonged among central Europe’s most prominent representatives in this symbolic category, to try to explain the causes and character of the swift backlash against them—or as Václav Havel put it, their “expulsion from the fairytale.” Three pillars of dissident political power turned into the roots of their demise. First, critics question the dissidents’ uniqueness and rewrite their master narrative. Further, we see a clash of representations that results from the dissidents’ transnational empowerment, and third, the broader anti-elite and anti-intellectual tendencies that always accompanied dissidence as its shadow became amplified by more recent populist rhetoric.
Addressing the Challenge of Russian Hybrid Warfare the NATO Way:The Case of Norway and Romania
The main objective of this report is to present how NATO has understood and been dealing with the challenge of the Russian political and hybrid warfare. In addition this study examines how two NATO member states, Norway and Romania, have been approaching these questions.