From spending to delivery: Coalition-based governance to scale Europe’s defence industry at speed
Europe’s defence landscape is entering a new and decisive phase – not only in spending, but in how spending is translated into capability. After years of underinvestment, governments are now committing resources at levels once deemed politically impossible, driven by Russia's threat and shifting US priorities. In this brief, we argue that the current model underpinning European defence procurement, production and innovation is ill-suited to a rapidly evolving threat landscape. Instead, Europe needs a governance model built for speed, flexibility and scale.
Poland and Norway facing turbulent times – how can they improve their cooperation?
This seminar explores how Norway and Poland can strengthen their cooperation on security, energy, and human connections in response to increasingly turbulent times.
Where and what is Hamas today?
In this episode of The World Stage, NUPI Senior Researcher Erik Skare explores the complex history and internal dynamics of Hamas with Jeroen Gunn...
Operationalising uncertainty: The automation of threat knowledge and situational awareness
This article examines how automated technologies produce threat knowledge in pursuit of “situational awareness”. Focusing on intrusion detection systems (IDS), it argues that searching for “anomalies” represents not only a technical shift but a sociotechnical reconfiguration. Drawing on interviews with technical operators, engineers, and institutional actors involved in Norway's national IDS, the article shows that anomaly detection does not deliver the seamless oversight or predictive control often promised by automation and Machine Learning. Instead, it produces new forms of uncertainty and interpretive labour warranted by military doctrines of “total security”. By exploring the conditions under which threats become known—a situated awareness—“omniboxing” is conceptualised as a lens to unpack the production of threat knowledge where uncertainty is not eradicated but operationalised. In contrast to Latour's black box, omniboxing acknowledges that while technical operators preserve an unyielding commitment to realising “total security”, technologies are not experienced as settled or self-evident. By foregrounding the ongoing and open-ended interpretive labour of human operators, the article demonstrates how IDS are not neutral tools of detection but are active in constituting what is seen, known, and acted upon as a threat. Situational awareness, often imagined as a means of achieving omniscient oversight, is rather a reflexive and situated process, revealing cybersecurity technologies as sociotechnical configurations rather than technical objects.
Global governance in transition: EU–Japan perspectives
New forms of cooperation are emerging, and countries are increasingly turning to smaller, more flexible alliances to navigate uncertainty. In this...
The Free and Open Indo-Pacific: Economics, Politics, and Norms
Japan’s “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP) strategy aims to promote economic prosperity, peace, free trade, and the rule of law across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Scholars primarily have interpreted FOIP through three lenses: economics, security, and norms. Economically, it reflects Japan’s support for regional connectivity, trade, and infrastructure development as both a growth strategy and a counter to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In security terms, FOIP emphasizes maritime readiness, defense cooperation with like-minded partners, and adherence to international maritime law amid tensions in the South and East China Seas. Normatively, it advances Japan’s values-based diplomacy, promoting democracy, human rights, and a rules-based order in contrast to authoritarian models. Since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe introduced FOIP in 2016, the concept has been adopted and adapted by many and diverse actors, each aligning it with their own strategic aims. This flexibility, unlike the more centralized BRI, is a hallmark of FOIP, resulting in a co-created, evolving, and often strategically ambiguous foreign policy. Dozens of countries from across the world incorporate FOIP language in their foreign and security policies, forming what some may consider a “narrative alliance” in the international system. The scholarship on FOIP is growing rapidly, yet there remain significant theoretical, methodological, and empirical questions unanswered.
When jihadists govern: Lessons across the Sahel cases
Fifteen years of international engagement have failed to halt the rise of jihadist insurgency in the Sahel. The Jihadist Governance in the Sahel (JIGOV-Sahel) research project shows that neither the absence of the state nor the insurgents’ ideological commitment alone is the cause. The state is present in ways that generate resistance, and jihadists govern because they fulfil functions the state does not. Norwegian and international strategies should move away from a military-first response and from the restoration of the same state, and towards assistance that strengthens state legitimacy, services, and rule of law in the daily lives of citizens.
Replacing the state
Military action alone is insufficient to defeat jihadist insurgency in northeast Nigeria; ISWAP persists by functioning as a proto-state providing justice and services. Insurgents fill the vacuum left by the state’s failure to provide security and infrastructure in rural areas. Reclaiming authority requires re-placing insurgent governance archi-tectures with predictable state administration. Rapid restoration of services and civilian protection in liberated areas are vital to preventing insurgent return. Reintegration must address returnee expectations shaped by their experience of alternative rule. Note: An updated version was published 8 June 2026.
Gender equality in global climate governance
Gender equality is now formally embedded in global climate governance. Yet in practice, climate policy reflects a divided agenda. Developed countries tend to perform better on gender-balanced participation in climate negotiations, while developing countries more consistently integrate gender into their pledges under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change - Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). This divide is driven by differences in incentives, financing structures, and how countries use their NDCs. For many developing countries, integrating gender into climate policy is closely tied to accessing international climate finance and demonstrating alignment with donor expectations. For developed countries, gender equality is often addressed through domestic policy frameworks, but is less visible in international climate commitments. The result is a fragmented approach in which participation and policy evolve separately, limiting the effectiveness of gender-responsive climate action and reducing opportunities for shared learning across countries.