Building influence: China's Belt and Road Initiative and the geopolitics of infrastructure
Over the past decade, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has redrawn physical, economic, and political maps. From ports in the Indian Ocean to...
Geo-economic Resilience: Collective Measures Against the Weaponisation of External Dependencies in the NB8 Region
Geo-economic competition and the coercive use of economic statecraft are supplanting the rules-based system of liberal economic exchange. Small economies like the NB8 states are vulnerable to this development, including the potential weaponisation of external dependencies against them. This policy brief proposes measures for NB8 states to prepare for such scenarios and suggests collective policies to enhance geo-economic resilience in the region.
From spending to delivery: Coalition-based governance to scale Europe’s defence industry at speed
Europe’s defence landscape is entering a new and decisive phase – not only in spending, but in how spending is translated into capability. After years of underinvestment, governments are now committing resources at levels once deemed politically impossible, driven by Russia's threat and shifting US priorities. In this brief, we argue that the current model underpinning European defence procurement, production and innovation is ill-suited to a rapidly evolving threat landscape. Instead, Europe needs a governance model built for speed, flexibility and scale.
Poland and Norway facing turbulent times – how can they improve their cooperation?
This seminar explores how Norway and Poland can strengthen their cooperation on security, energy, and human connections in response to increasingly turbulent times.
Where and what is Hamas today?
In this episode of The World Stage, NUPI Senior Researcher Erik Skare explores the complex history and internal dynamics of Hamas with Jeroen Gunn...
Operationalising uncertainty: The automation of threat knowledge and situational awareness
This article examines how automated technologies produce threat knowledge in pursuit of “situational awareness”. Focusing on intrusion detection systems (IDS), it argues that searching for “anomalies” represents not only a technical shift but a sociotechnical reconfiguration. Drawing on interviews with technical operators, engineers, and institutional actors involved in Norway's national IDS, the article shows that anomaly detection does not deliver the seamless oversight or predictive control often promised by automation and Machine Learning. Instead, it produces new forms of uncertainty and interpretive labour warranted by military doctrines of “total security”. By exploring the conditions under which threats become known—a situated awareness—“omniboxing” is conceptualised as a lens to unpack the production of threat knowledge where uncertainty is not eradicated but operationalised. In contrast to Latour's black box, omniboxing acknowledges that while technical operators preserve an unyielding commitment to realising “total security”, technologies are not experienced as settled or self-evident. By foregrounding the ongoing and open-ended interpretive labour of human operators, the article demonstrates how IDS are not neutral tools of detection but are active in constituting what is seen, known, and acted upon as a threat. Situational awareness, often imagined as a means of achieving omniscient oversight, is rather a reflexive and situated process, revealing cybersecurity technologies as sociotechnical configurations rather than technical objects.
Global governance in transition: EU–Japan perspectives
New forms of cooperation are emerging, and countries are increasingly turning to smaller, more flexible alliances to navigate uncertainty. In this...
The Free and Open Indo-Pacific: Economics, Politics, and Norms
Japan’s “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP) strategy aims to promote economic prosperity, peace, free trade, and the rule of law across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Scholars primarily have interpreted FOIP through three lenses: economics, security, and norms. Economically, it reflects Japan’s support for regional connectivity, trade, and infrastructure development as both a growth strategy and a counter to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In security terms, FOIP emphasizes maritime readiness, defense cooperation with like-minded partners, and adherence to international maritime law amid tensions in the South and East China Seas. Normatively, it advances Japan’s values-based diplomacy, promoting democracy, human rights, and a rules-based order in contrast to authoritarian models. Since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe introduced FOIP in 2016, the concept has been adopted and adapted by many and diverse actors, each aligning it with their own strategic aims. This flexibility, unlike the more centralized BRI, is a hallmark of FOIP, resulting in a co-created, evolving, and often strategically ambiguous foreign policy. Dozens of countries from across the world incorporate FOIP language in their foreign and security policies, forming what some may consider a “narrative alliance” in the international system. The scholarship on FOIP is growing rapidly, yet there remain significant theoretical, methodological, and empirical questions unanswered.