Did China Bankroll Russia’s Annexation of Crimea? The Role of Sino-Russian Energy Relations
This chapter is an empirical analysis of energy cooperation between China and Russia, centred on the Ukrainian crisis as a defining event of the partnership. Despite China’s officially neutral political stance on Crimea, the increased frequency of meetings to discuss joint energy projects and the signing of the largest energy deal in world history created the impression that China actively stepped in and supplied the necessary financing to get Russia through sanctions over Crimea and the oil price collapse of 2014–2016. The chapter assesses this hypothesis by examining the long-term trends in lending, investments and trade trends between the two countries, and by taking a closer look at Chinese involvement in four concrete energy projects managed by some of the main Russian energy companies: Power of Siberia, Yamal LNG, Vankor and ESPO. While there is evidence of increased Chinese investments in Russia and a surge of Russian oil imports to China after the annexation, the authors conclude that China was not the major force keeping Russia’s wheels turning during the pre- and post-Crimea years. The involvement of China in the major Russian energy projects was planned and negotiated long before the annexation of Crimea. The authors therefore argue that China did not step in to bankroll Russia after Crimea, instead long-term trends in cooperation simply continued. On the other hand, clearly the long-term growth in cooperation between the two countries reduces Russia’s dependency on the West and provides greater elbowroom for its foreign policy.
Free Trade Agreements and Globalisation. In the Shadow of Brexit and Trump. (E-book)
The book provides a comprehensive analysis of free trade agreements (FTAs); their number, content and impact. It examines trade and FTAs for the whole world, split into seven major regions. The book presents a new numerical model of world trade, with results from 110 countries and regions. The results shed light on the impact of FTA, as well as the growth of China and the value of trade in general. The book also contains analysis of the sub-regional impact of trade and trade policy for large nations. It also includes some teaching material.
Free Trade Agreements and Globalisation. In the Shadow of Brexit and Trump.
The book provides a comprehensive analysis of free trade agreements (FTAs); their number, content and impact. It examines trade and FTAs for the whole world, split into seven major regions. The book presents a new numerical model of world trade, with results from 110 countries and regions. The results shed light on the impact of FTA, as well as the growth of China and the value of trade in general. The book also contains analysis of the sub-regional impact of trade and trade policy for large nations. It also includes some teaching material.
Feeding India: Poverty, prices and value chains
With India’s massive poverty, food issues rank high on the policy agenda, including food consumption and food prices, and the income and power distribution along the food value chains. In recent work, NUPI researchers and partners have shed new light on key issues in the field.
Breakfast seminar: Global disorder and distrust – The democratic capitalism in crisis
How can we secure the future of democratic capitalism in a world where you don’t know who to trust?
Somalia: A Political Economy Analysis
Somalia has been without a central authority for more than a quarter century. An entire generation is growing up without experiencing stability and security, basic human rights, and economic prosperity. There is no functioning central government with authority over the entire country, extreme weather impacts the country unmitigated, and social challenges such as corruption are rampant. This bears several risks, such as support for radical Islamist groups, such as Al-Shabaab, posing a threat to domestic and international security, or a brain drain with large number of people fleeing the instability and conflict in Somalia. Informal governance actors, formal local authorities, and the private sector have filled the gaps in providing security, education, and health services. Yet, powerful formal and informal, national as well as international actors have vested interests in a weak state or governance failure, with conflict and instability becoming self-perpetuating. This political economy analysis sheds light on the actors, their interests, and power relationships, thus providing a better understanding of these arrangements and their relation with the wider state-building efforts.
Withdrawal under article 50 TEU: an integration-friendly prosess
Article 50TEU acknowledges the right of Member States to withdraw from the EU, and contains a specific procedure. It also constitutes the legal basis of an exceptional EU competence whose purpose is to ensure that a Member’s departure is “orderly”. This qualification entails the conclusion of an agreement between the parties on the terms of the withdrawal, but also presupposes that the withdrawal does not undermine the integrity of the EU legal order, while contributing to the fulfilment of the Union’s integration objective. The unprecedented exercise of that competence has enriched the law of European integration: core components of the constitutional identity of the EU have been (re)affirmed, the role of its institutions bolstered, and Union membership law further articulated. Paradoxically, withdrawal may therefore be envisaged as an integration-friendly process.
Nordic responses to Brexit: Making the best of a difficult situation
This policy brief examines how the British decision to withdraw from the EU has influenced the political debates in and foreign policies of the five Nordic states – Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden. With the exception of Iceland, all these countries had a stated preference for Britain to remain in the EU – not least due to historical ties and the tendency of Britain and the Nordic countries to have similar approaches to European integration. Three general findings can be highlighted: First, Brexit has featured prominently in political debates in all the Nordic countries since the British referendum, and the causes and consequences of the Brexit vote continue to be discussed with vigour. In all the Nordic countries, Brexit has also stirred debates about their current relationships with the EU, prompting EU critics to demand new privileges or opt-outs. Overall, however, the Nordic governments, supported by a stable majority among their populations, have signalled that they wish to preserve their EU membership or current forms of association models, with the access and benefits these provide. Second, for all the Nordic countries, securing good relations with Britain post-Brexit is a key priority, but they have generally indicated that maintaining good relations with the EU must come first. Finally, the Nordic governments are well aware that Brexit could create a vacuum in EU policy-making, perhaps tipping the balance among internal clusters. Britain has been a highly visible member of the ‘Northern’ grouping in the EU, and its absence is likely to be noticed. As the Nordic countries are about to lose what has at times been a powerful ally in EU decision-making, they may have to forge new coalitions to safeguard their interests.