Predictive peacekeeping: opportunities and challenges
The time is ripe for the development of a UN early warning tool that estimates the likelihood of instability, intercommunity clashes and armed violence in areas in which UN peacekeepers operate. However, this development would require at least some initial collaboration between the UN and the scientific world. Scientists have developed advanced analytical tools to predict armed violence in recent years.1 Yet, these conflict prediction tools still cannot be utilized to their full potential because of a relatively poor quality of conflict data. It is precisely in the area of high quality conflict data that the UN has a strong comparative advantage,2 especially now that the Situational Awareness Geospatial Enterprise (SAGE) system is being implemented. SAGE is a web-based database system that allows UN military, police and civilians in UN peace operations (both UN peacekeeping operations and special political missions) to log incidents, events and activities. The development of SAGE has made it possible to leverage state of the art methodological tools to enable predictive peacekeeping. This policy brief provides background to the recent turn to using data in UN peacekeeping missions, suggestions for what an early warning tool based on SAGE data would look like, and discusses the practical and ethical challenges of such an early warning tool.
Militser inntar regjeringskontorene i Irak
Militslederen Muqtada al-Sadr kom seirende ut fra det nylige valget i Irak, og nå tar han trolig med seg Iran-vennlige militser inn i regjering.
Adaptive Mediation
Traditional state-based and determined-design models are ill-equipped to help mediators manage increasingly dynamic, complex and unpredictable violent conflict systems. In this paper we explore an alternative approach, namely an iterative adaptive mediation process that enables the parties to generate solutions themselves, and that responds more nimbly to the challenges posed by complex conflict dynamics. With Adaptive Mediation, the aim of the mediator is to provide the benefits of external intervention without undermining self-organisation. When this approach is applied to conflict analyses, planning, monitoring and evaluation, the ability of mediation processes to navigate uncertainty and adapt to changing dynamics will be enhanced. In order for more resilient and more self-sustainable agreements to emerge, adaptive mediation requires mediators to apply a lighter touch. This encourages greater interdependence among the parties, and discourage dependence upon the mediator. As a result, utilising an adaptive mediation approach should result in generating peace agreements that are more locally-grounded, that are more self-sustainable and that are better able to withstand set-backs and shocks.
The reconfiguration of clientelism and the failure of vote buying in Lebanon
One common demand in the 2011 uprisings in the MENA region was the call for ‘freedom, dignity, and social justice.’ Citizens rallied against corruption and clientelism, which for many protesters were deeply linked to political tyranny. This book takes the phenomenon of the 2011 uprisings as a point of departure for reassessing clientelism and patronage across the entire MENA region. Using case studies covering Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and the Gulf monarchies, it looks at how the relationships within and between clientelist and patronage networks changed before 2011. The book assesses how these changes contributed to the destabilization of the established political and social order, and how they affected less visible political processes. It then turns to look at how the political transformations since 2011 have in turn reconfigured these networks in terms of strategies and dynamics, and concomitantly, what implications this has had for the inclusion or exclusion of new actors. Are specific networks expanding or shrinking in the post-2011 contexts? Do these networks reproduce established forms of patron-client relations or do they translate into new modes and mechanisms? As the first book to systematically discuss clientelism, patronage and corruption against the background of the 2011 uprisings, it will be a valuable resource for students and scholars of Middle Eastern Studies. The book also addresses major debates in comparative politics and political sociology by offering ‘networks of dependency’ as an interdisciplinary conceptual approach that can ‘travel’ across place and time.
The Russia Conference 2018: Cold peace in the Arctic?
How does the conflict between Russia and the West affect the situation in the Arctic? Join us at NUPI’s annual Russia Conference on 14 September to find out.
Colombia between peace and war : The 2018 presidential elections and the way forward
The presidential elections of 2018 are expected to have significant implications for the matter of peace, justice and conflict resolution in Colombia. Since conflict intensity rose considerably in the 1980s, presidential elections have been greatly influenced by the candidates’ approaches to the conflict and how to deal with illegal armed groups, particularly the FARC. What visions of peace do the 2018 presidential candidates have, and what could the implications be for the current peace agreement with the FARC? The candidates, rightwing and frontrunner Iván Duque and left-wing candidate Gustavo Petro, promote dissimilar visions of peace for Colombia. These reflect a deeper political polarization within the country, a key issue the next president will have to deal with.
The anglophone crisis in Cameroon: uncovering a neglected conflict
Guillaume Nseke discusses a conflict that – despite hundreds of casualties, and thousands internally displaced – has failed to gain international attention.