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Research Project

Support to UN Peace Operations: Ensuring More Effective UN Peace Operations

The aim of the project is to strengthen the ability of UN peacekeeping and other peace operations to respond to global security challenges, adapt to a changing global order, and continue contributing to sustainable peace.

Themes

  • Security policy
  • Terrorism and extremism
  • Diplomacy
  • Foreign policy
  • The Middle East and North Africa
  • Africa
  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • Governance
  • International organizations
  • United Nations
  • AU

Events

The aim of the project is to strengthen the ability of UN peacekeeping and other peace operations to respond to global security challenges, adapt to a changing global order, and continue contributing to sustainable peace. A4P/A4P+ is significant in this regard.

The intended outcome is increased UN capacity to analyse and respond to global security challenges and adapt to changing global order.

The intended impact of the project is to strengthen the effectiveness of UN peace operations through applied research and focussed policy support that help address key challenges facing the UN.

The project will address key challenges facing the UN, and that are of particular concern to Norway, including strategic analysis and planning, cooperation with the African Union and other regional and subregional actors, international policing, violent extremism and gender.

The first round of this project was conducted in 2017-2019. This project period will last from 2023 to 2026.

Project Manager

John Karlsrud
Research Professor

Participants

Cedric H. de Coning
Research Professor
Jenny Lorentzen
Senior Research Fellow

Articles

Articles
News
Articles
News

What's next for the Women, Peace and Security Agenda (WPS)?

2020 marks the 20th anniversary of Security Council Resolution 1325. But the important Women, Peace and Security agenda seem to have had a backlash in recent years. 

  • Security policy
  • Peace operations
  • Humanitarian issues
  • Conflict
  • Fragile states
  • International organizations
  • United Nations
News
News

Four global transformations are changing UN peace operations

The global order is changing – how will that uncertainty impact UN peace operations?

  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • International organizations
  • United Nations
Bildet viser en FN-soldat i Mali
News
News

New book: UN Peace Operations in a Changing Global Order

In this book launch interview, editors Mateja Peter and Cedric de Coning reflect upon findings from their most recent book, identifying four global transformations and their implications for UN peace operations.

  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • International organizations
  • United Nations
Bildet viser en FN-soldat i Mali
News
News

WORLD PEACEKEEPING DAY: UN Peacekeeping at 70

UN peacekeeping faces significant challenges and some question whether it can remain relevant, but most countries agree on the importance of the UN as the centrepiece of global governance, and that peacekeeping is its flagship enterprise.

  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • International organizations
  • United Nations

New publications

Publications
Publications
Scientific article

The future of UN peace operations: Principled adaptation through phases of contraction, moderation, and renewal

This article considers the future of UN peace operations through a complexity theory lens. In the short-term peacekeeping will have to adapt to the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and the fall-out of the Trump presidency. In the medium-term peacekeeping will go through a phase of uncertainty and turbulence due to geopolitical power shifts in the global order. In the longer-term peacekeeping will have to adapt to a new multipolar global order characterized by coexistence, and a changing security landscape shaped by, among others, climate change, urbanization, and new technologies. Throughout these contraction, moderation, and adjustment phases, UN peacekeeping is likely to be guided by a principled adaptive approach, that allows it to adapt to the realities of the moment whilst staying true to its core form and identity. As a result, UN peacekeeping is likely to remain one of the most visible symbols of global governance and international cooperation.

  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • United Nations
  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • United Nations
Publications
Publications
Scientific article

UN peace operations in a multipolar order: Building peace through the rule of law and bottom-up approaches

UN peace operations need a new peacebuilding agenda that acknowledges both the transboundary nature of conflict drivers and the multipolar nature of the global order. This means casting aside the current stabilization approach, but also abandoning the pursuit of liberal peacebuilding of the unipolar era. Such a conflict transformation agenda would require UN peace operations to prioritize the rule of law and bottom-up approaches, thus creating the potential to be embraced by a much broader range of member states. In this article, we bring liberal peacebuilding critiques into a discussion with debates on the nature of the global order. Liberal peacebuilding critiques are rooted in the bottom-up problematization of international interventions and show what kind of peacebuilding is desirable. Conversely, the debates on the multipolar nature of the global order expose the top-down constraints as to what kind of peacebuilding is feasible.

  • Security policy
  • Globalisation
  • Diplomacy
  • Foreign policy
  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • Governance
  • International organizations
  • United Nations
  • Security policy
  • Globalisation
  • Diplomacy
  • Foreign policy
  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • Governance
  • International organizations
  • United Nations
Publications
Publications
Report

Performance of Peace Operations

How should we assess and improve the performance of peace operations? This is the topic of the third dialogue strand of VCAF20. UN peace operations are under growing pressure to increase performance and enhance mandate delivery. This background paper assesses recent research into the effectiveness and performance of peace operations and new UN initiatives for internal monitoring, evaluation and related data management systems.

  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • International organizations
  • United Nations
  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • International organizations
  • United Nations
Publications
Publications
Report

Security Council Resolution 1325 at 20: What Next for the Women Peace and Security (WPS) Agenda?

This policy brief takes stock of the achievements of the WPS agenda since the passing of its founding Security Resolution 1325, twenty years ago. It outlines the challenges it currently faces like the implementation gap; the global push-back against women’s rights and multilateral cooperation; the increase of a strongly gendered nationalist populism; the political climate amongst UN member states and within the Security Council; and the Covid-19 pandemic. It discusses whether this challenging situation points towards prioritising the maintenance of the gains achieved in the field of WPS since the passing of Security Council Resolution 1325, instead of pushing for progressive changes. It puts forward the argument that the current situation makes it more relevant and necessary than ever to apply a more comprehensive understanding of what gender entails and how it is integral to politics, conflicts and peace efforts. It is argued that this approach must form the basis for analyses of conflict situations, as well as for understanding the challenges that the WPS agenda currently faces. Hence, the promotion and utilisation of such an approach should be a priority for the WPS agenda in the years to come.

  • Security policy
  • Peace operations
  • The EU
  • United Nations
  • Security policy
  • Peace operations
  • The EU
  • United Nations
Publications
Publications
Report

COVID-19 will change the way the UN conducts peacekeeping operations in the future

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly disrupted UN peacekeeping operations. In the short-term, activities have been reduced to the most critical, rotations have been frozen, and most staff are working remotely. Most of the missions have adapted remarkably well, but even more extreme changes are likely in the medium term, as the global economic recession that will follow in the wake of the virus may force UN peace operations to drastically contract in size and scope.

  • Africa
  • Pandemics
  • Africa
  • Pandemics
Publications
Publications
Report

The impact of COVID-19 on the performance of peace operations

Between the African Union, European Union, OSCE, NATO and United Nations there are approximately 160,000 civilian, police and military personnel deployed in more than 50 missions. These missions have all been forced to take unprecedented steps to adapt and cope with the COVID-19 pandemic. This may be just the beginning and much more significant reductions and changes in the way these operations function may be needed over the coming months.

  • Africa
  • Pandemics
  • United Nations
  • Africa
  • Pandemics
  • United Nations
Publications
Publications
Scientific article

The Impact of COVID-19 on Peace Operations

A few weeks ago, peace operations across the world began swiftly adapting to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 disease. Missions have been forced to take unprecedented steps to cope with the coronavirus pandemic. These efforts may be just the beginning, and much more significant reductions and changes in the way these operations function may be needed over the coming months.

Publications
Publications
Report

Unity in Goals, Diversity in Means - and the discourse on female peacekeepers in UN peace operations.

Gender parity at all levels in the UN, as a means towards gender equality, is a two-decades old commitment, reflecting core values as old as the UN itself. Despite this, progress on increasing the number of female peacekeepers has been slow and uneven, particularly in uniformed roles – but also in peace processes. This is due to a number of reasons, but in particular a lack of political will, financing and accountability, and resistance to gender equality. We argue that a paradigm shift is needed, both on performance diversity grounds but also on normative equality grounds. To implement already agreed upon benchmarks and resolutions, the UN and its member states need to focus more on the operational value of diversity in fulfilling the tasks at hand, both for national security forces and in peace operations. Gender should be considered a central component in this required diversity. In the current situation where we witness a pushback on support to women’s rights; ensuring diversity should not only be considered a key priority, but also a national and international security imperative.

  • Africa
  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • Fragile states
  • Pandemics
  • Human rights
  • International organizations
  • United Nations
  • Africa
  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • Fragile states
  • Pandemics
  • Human rights
  • International organizations
  • United Nations
Publications
Publications
Report

Preventing Organized Crime. The Need for a Context-Sensitive, System-Wide Approach.

Recent years have seen important developments regarding the UN Security Council and the UN Secretariat. The Security Council, which has increasingly recognized organized crime as a serious threat to international peace and security—especially in relation to terrorism—has begun using sanctions to deal with organized crime and trafficking in Mali and Libya. Further, serious and organized crime (SOC) police units have been established in several UN field operations, including in the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Mali. However, there is still no UN-wide policy on organized crime, and the issue has been conspicuously absent from recent strategic documents such as the Action for Peacekeeping Declaration (A4P). This report argues that there is need for a UN system-wide approach to peace operations for preventing and addressing organized crime, and its links to terrorism. To achieve this, UN member states and the UN Secretariat should seek to consolidate and broaden its nascent law enforcement capacity- building police approach into a context sensitive, system-wide approach. Six specific recommendations for the way forward are offered.

  • Security policy
  • Globalisation
  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • International organizations
  • United Nations
  • Security policy
  • Globalisation
  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • International organizations
  • United Nations
Publications
Publications
Report

Female Peacekeepers and Operational Effectiveness in UN Peace Operations.

More women are needed in UN peace operations, both on the grounds of equality and performance. March 2020 survey data and empirical evidence from the Effectiveness of Peace Operations Network (EPON) highlight the importance of greater gender parity in UN peace operations for missions to successfully achieve their mandated tasks, stressing also the impact of context-specific obstacles and how the absence of enabling and supportive systems means that neither male nor female peacekeepers can perform at their best. Survey findings also point to the risk that the women, peace and security (WPS) agenda – including gender equality in peacekeeping operations – may be treated as a second-tier concern if set against other pressing issues. In the midst of the current COVID-19 pandemic and an evolving global recession– this risk is intensified. A continued political and financial commitment to increasing numbers is a prerequisite for achieving greater gender parity and equality. However, in terms of discourse, we need to move beyond having to prove the added value of female participation, which places an extra burden on those concerned.

  • Africa
  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • Fragile states
  • Pandemics
  • Human rights
  • International organizations
  • United Nations
  • Africa
  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • Fragile states
  • Pandemics
  • Human rights
  • International organizations
  • United Nations
Publications
Publications
Report

The Impact of Covid-19 on the Women, Peace and Security Agenda.

• Women appear to be disproportionately affected by Covid-19 • Pushback on global commitment to gender equality • Gender equality and human development are correlated: focussing on gender equality will have a catalytic effect on the SDGs • The increasing strain on peace operations is likely to have a negative effect on the WPS agenda.

  • Globalisation
  • Development policy
  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • Fragile states
  • Pandemics
  • International organizations
  • United Nations
  • Globalisation
  • Development policy
  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • Fragile states
  • Pandemics
  • International organizations
  • United Nations
Publications
Publications
Chapter

WPS and Female Peacekeepers

The chapter provides an overview of the participation of female peacekeeping personnel in UN missions, tracing key target and agenda- setting policy events, as well as examining causes for the slow progress in female participation. The chapter considers female participation in the military, police, and civilian components of UN peacekeeping operations. It then critically discusses the drawbacks of the “gender- balancing” agenda advanced by the UN, which critics argue has often amounted to “tokenism.” This necessary, but insufficient goal of increasing numbers alone, has been prioritized over the more comprehensive and potentially transformative goal of gender mainstreaming. Gender mainstreaming in peacekeeping is defined as “a way of guaranteeing that the concerns, requirements and opinions of women and men are included equally into every aspect of peacekeeping.” Moreover, each component of the mission should include a “gender perspective in all its functions and tasks from start- up to draw- down” (United Nations 2014: 21– 22). Failing to address the complexity of gender relations and the militarized, masculine, institutional structures within peacekeeping missions themselves will ultimately constrain gender equality. Seeking to situate the WPS agenda within the broader context of UN peace operations, the chapter concludes by reflecting on some of the possible implications of the trend toward militarization and securitization within peacekeeping which will have consequences for women’s active and quality participation in peacekeeping.

  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • United Nations
  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • United Nations
Publications
Publications
Scientific article

How UN Peacekeeping Operations Can Adapt to a New Multipolar World Order

How will United Nations peacekeeping operations adapt to the transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world order? The paper considers emerging dynamics in three areas that may suggest how UN peacekeeping are likely to be affected by a changing world order, namely strategic political coherence, the employment of force, and the outer limits of peace operations. It points out that one of the enduring characteristics of UN peacekeeping has been the resilience of its identity. Another has been the continuous evolution of the specific manifestations of that identity into practice. UN peacekeeping have thus shown a remarkable capacity to continuously adapt to new challenges over the past 70 plus years, and there is no evidence to suggest that it will not continue to do so into the future.

  • Peace operations
  • Peace operations
Publications
Publications
Scientific article

Predictive Peacekeeping: Strengthening Predictive Analysis in UN Peace Operations

The UN is becoming increasingly data-driven. Until recently, data-driven initiatives have mainly been led by individual UN field missions, but with António Guterres, the new Secretary-General, a more centralized approach is being embarked on. With a trend towards the use of data to support the work of UN staff, the UN is likely to soon rely on systematic data analysis to draw patterns from the information that is gathered in and across UN field missions. This paper is based on UN peacekeeping data from the Joint Mission Analysis Centre (JMAC) in Darfur, and draws on interviews conducted in New York, Mali and Sudan. It will explore the practical and ethical implications of systematic data analysis in UN field missions. Systematic data analysis can help the leadership of field missions to decide where to deploy troops to protect civilians, guide conflict prevention efforts and help preempt threats to the mission itself. However, predictive analysis in UN peace operations will only be beneficial if it also leads to early action. Finally, predictive peacekeeping will not only be demanding of resources, it will also include ethical challenges on issues such as data privacy and the risk of reidentification of informants or other potentially vulnerable people.

  • United Nations
  • United Nations
Publications
Publications
Book

United Nations Peace Operations in a Changing Global Order

This edited volume generates a discussion about UN approaches to peace by studying challenges and opportunities that the organisation is facing in the 21st century. We use some of the findings from the HIPPO report as an inspiration and put both its recommendations and broader UN actions in a wider context. We identify four transformations in the global order and study what implications these have on UN peace operations. The first two transformations emanate from the changing relations between states and reflect the increasingly multipolar character of contemporary global governance. The latter two transformations reflect the changing relations between state and non-state actors. These two broad groups of non-state actors are fundamentally incompatible in their outlook on how and whether the international community should be intervening. That notwithstanding, both groups of non-state actors also force the UN and its member states to rethink the centrality of state-based approaches to security and intervention. In this volume, we identify four transformations in the global order and study their implications on the United Nations peace operations. We ask: - How is the rebalancing of relations between states of the global North and the global South impacting the UN’s decision-making, financing and ability to design operations that go beyond the minimum common denominator; - How is the rise of regional organisations as providers of peace impacting the primacy of UN peace operations and how and whether the UN can remain relevant in this era of partnership and competition; - How have violent extremism and fundamentalist non-state actors changed the nature of international responses and what does this mean for previously advanced longer-term approaches to conflict resolution; - How are demands from non-state actors for greater emphasis on human security impacting the UN’s credibility, and whether, in light of the first three transformations, is the UN even able to prioritise people-centred approaches over state-centred ones. Our core finding is that with the entry of new actors from the global South as important players in the peace arena, we seem to be entering a more pragmatic era of UN peace operations. As contributions to this volume show, there is a greater willingness to innovate and experiment with new forms of conflict management, including more robust interpretations of UN peacekeeping and an increasing reliance on regional actors as providers of peace. At the same time, the UN is facing a classic struggle between the promotion of liberal international norms and realist security concerns. The resolution of this struggle is less clear. The contributors to this volume emphasise the importance of people-centred approaches, conflict sensitivity and longer-term thinking as key aspects to continued relevance of the UN, but their conclusions as to how achievable these are by the UN are not as clear cut.

  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • United Nations
  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • United Nations
Publications
Publications
Report

Assessing the Effectiveness of the United Nations Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)

This report assesses the extent to which the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) is achieving its current strategic objectives, and the impact the Mission has had on the political and security situation in Mali. Until 2016 MINUSMA managed to strengthen stability in northern Mali, decreasing the number of civilians killed in the conflict, and allowing large numbers of displaced persons to return home. MINUSMA also assisted the peace process, culminating in the 2015 Algiers Agreement. Many of these achievements are still standing. However, since 2016 MINUSMA’s effectiveness in terms of stabilisation and the protection of civilians has decreased. In the North, the signatory parties have been making slow progress in the implementation of the Algiers Agreement and the 2018 Pact for Peace. In addition, central Mali has destabilised significantly, as Jihadist activities have stoked a vicious cycle of inter-communal violence that has reached unprecedented levels. MINUSMA has only been mandated to help the Malian government address the situation since June 2018. As one of the largest multidimensional peacekeeping operations – currently including nearly 13,000 soldiers and 1,800 police officers from 57 contributing countries, and almost 750 civilians – MINUSMA has been provided with significant resources and an extraordinarily ambitious mandate. However, the Mission finds itself at a crossroads. It needs time to succeed, but this is valuable time Mali does not have. Civilians have come under increasing attack, and the US, in particular, is losing interest in supporting a costly UN peace operation that is not able to deliver quick results. This report considers the degree to which there is an alignment between the mission’s resources and its mandate. It also makes an assessment of the options available to the Mission to increase its effectiveness in the face of extremely challenging circumstances.

  • Africa
  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • Fragile states
  • United Nations
  • Africa
  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • Fragile states
  • United Nations
Publications
Publications
Scientific article

Complexity thinking and adaptive peacebuilding

Cedric de Coning explores how complexity thinking can contribute to our understanding of how to create more inclusive peace processes, and how adaptive approaches enable local and external peacebuilders to apply new models of practice, experimentation and learning. These differ fundamentally from approaches where the role of peacebuilders is to implement a pre-designed intervention. De Coning suggests that pressure for change tends to accumulate over time often without signs of progress, and that key system changes occur during periods of turbulence when the self-sustaining ‘path dependencies of violence’ are disrupted. Adaptation does not imply embracing disorder or abandoning goals, but rather being more front-footed, coping with uncertainty, anticipating change and embracing experimentation.

  • Africa
  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • International organizations
  • United Nations
  • Africa
  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • International organizations
  • United Nations
Publications
Publications
Scientific article

The Joint Force of the G5 Sahel: An Appropriate Response to Combat Terrorism?

The Joint Force of the Group of Five of the Sahel reflects the commitment of African states to cooperate to address common security challenges. Yet, little is known about its counter-terrorism strategy for the region. This article focuses on the security pillar of the G5 Sahel, the Joint Force (FC-G5S), and provides a critical examination of its mandate to combat terrorism in the Sahel. It explains the context into which the force was deployed and provides an overview of its conceptualisation and configuration. It demonstrates that in its current form, there is a danger of advancing a security-first stabilisation strategy that relies heavily on military-led counter-terror operations to contain and deter the threat of terrorist groups which can have serious consequences for local communities living among insurgents. The article argues that while establishing firmer border control and enhanced intelligence-sharing between the G5 Sahel states is important, the current counter-terror response risks depoliticising insurgents, and neglects the sociopolitical and economic grievances and problems of governance that have enabled violent extremism to take root in the first place. Removing the categorisation of jihadist insurgents as terrorists only and understanding their multifaceted identities – some as legitimate social and political actors – would open up more policy responses, including dialogue and conflict resolution.

  • Security policy
  • Terrorism and extremism
  • Regional integration
  • Africa
  • Conflict
  • Nation-building
  • Nationalism
  • Insurgencies
  • AU
  • Security policy
  • Terrorism and extremism
  • Regional integration
  • Africa
  • Conflict
  • Nation-building
  • Nationalism
  • Insurgencies
  • AU
Publications
Publications
Report

Towards a Comprehensive Results-based Reporting and Performance Assessment Framework for UN Peacekeeping Operations

This report considers the tools and processes that DPKO and DFS currently use to assess the performance of senior personnel, individual units and peacekeeping operations, and proposes a methodology for reorganizing these tools into a single overarching comprehensive planning, reporting and performance assessment framework. We argue for a shared analytical framework for performance assessment, across the UN system, and show how the terminology used by the United Nations Evaluation Group can be applied in peacekeeping operations. Currently, performance assessments of peacekeeping operations are undertaken as a number of independent processes which serve different constituencies and a range of purposes. This report identified eight different tools, each performing its own data collection and analysis. They are concentrated in two distinct areas across the spectrum. On the one hand a group of tools focus on outputs (measurable actions undertaken), and on the other a few tools focus on strategic analysis of the context – where the link to the peacekeeping operation is very tenuous. As a result, the information generated by the current tools are not able to be aggregated into a meaningful overall assessment of the performance of a given peacekeeping operation. The report endorses the principle of establishing a single comprehensive planning, reporting and performance assessment framework (the Framework) which brings the existing policies and tools together into more efficient interaction. In addition to what exists already, we recommend developing a performance assessment design that supports the Framework and the RBB with information on the performance of the mission against its plans, objectives and mandate. 1. We recommend the establishment of a single comprehensive planning, reporting and performance assessment Framework that incorporates the current planning and evaluation policies and tools, including the RBB, and that adds a new performance assessment tool and a predictable planning and decision-making cycle. 2. The Framework needs to envision a strategic planning horizon that is linked to the timeframes necessary to achieve the mission’s mandate, and should not be limited to the period for which the mission is currently authorized. 3. The Framework should contain a performance assessment tool should consisting of three elements, namely a set of indicators for each performance area, a process for analyzing and reporting on performance, and a platform where all the information gathered is stored for current and future use. 4. For each mission, the Framework should be grounded in a context analysis that identifies the key drivers that shape developments in the conflict-system that the peacekeeping operation is intended to influence. It should include in particular the identification of key drivers of change, which are the events or trends which will trigger significant change. The context analysis identifies, and analyse the critical conditions that influence these drivers, and the mission’s effects-based plans should be aimed at influencing these critical conditions, so as to have an impact on the key drivers. 5. Central to a performance assessment is defining the manner in which outputs are intended to influence the critical conditions around key drivers and actors. Clearly articulating the intended influence (the so-called ‘theory of change’ in evaluation terminology) helps to anticipate what impact a peacekeeping operation can be expected to have on a conflict-system, as the triggers, or drivers of the process of change have been clearly identified as part of the context analysis. Operationalizing the Framework requires three streams of elaboration, aimed at different functions within the organisation. It should be noted that it does not add significant new tasks, but aims to bring together what exists into three categories of capacities: • Assessment capacity, existing staff who will be trained in performance assessment; • Planners and managers, who would be given concrete points of reference on which to base decisions (resources, outputs, critical conditions, assumptions under review); and • A digital platform which can capture, through big data solutions, the information in the existing systems, and present it into a single dash-board interface.

Publications
Publications
Report

Review of the Global Focal Point for Police, Justice and Security 2018

In December 2017, an independent Review of the Global Focal Point (GFP) arrangement was commissioned to inform GFP partners, Member States and other stakeholders on how the arrangement has evolved over time and can be further strengthened to deliver rule of law assistance in peacekeeping operation settings, special political mission settings, including in transition contexts, and non-mission settings. The Review examines progress, achievements and challenges of GFP joint support to rule of law activities with a view to strengthening the GFP arrangement, enhancing the delivery of rule of law assistance and adapting it to the United Nations reforms, the implementation of the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda, and the Secretary-General’s prevention platform initiative. The research, with more than 209 interviews undertaken, was concluded in June and the report was finalized in August 2018.

  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • International organizations
  • United Nations
  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • International organizations
  • United Nations
Publications
Publications
Report

Predictive peacekeeping: opportunities and challenges

The time is ripe for the development of a UN early warning tool that estimates the likelihood of instability, intercommunity clashes and armed violence in areas in which UN peacekeepers operate. However, this development would require at least some initial collaboration between the UN and the scientific world. Scientists have developed advanced analytical tools to predict armed violence in recent years.1 Yet, these conflict prediction tools still cannot be utilized to their full potential because of a relatively poor quality of conflict data. It is precisely in the area of high quality conflict data that the UN has a strong comparative advantage,2 especially now that the Situational Awareness Geospatial Enterprise (SAGE) system is being implemented. SAGE is a web-based database system that allows UN military, police and civilians in UN peace operations (both UN peacekeeping operations and special political missions) to log incidents, events and activities. The development of SAGE has made it possible to leverage state of the art methodological tools to enable predictive peacekeeping. This policy brief provides background to the recent turn to using data in UN peacekeeping missions, suggestions for what an early warning tool based on SAGE data would look like, and discusses the practical and ethical challenges of such an early warning tool.

  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • United Nations
  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • United Nations
Publications
Publications
Report

Researching the Effectiveness of Peace Operations, Seminar Report, 31 May – 1 June, Oslo

The African Union (AU), European Union (EU), and United Nations (UN) are under increasing pressure to justify the effectiveness of the peace operations they deploy. Justifying this effectiveness requires precise assessments based on systematized and evidence-based data. Per now, however, this data is lacking, a gap the global research community could help address. On 31 May and 1 June 2017, the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) hosted a seminar that brought together thirty participants from the AU, UN, the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as research institutes and think tanks from across the globe. The aim of the seminar was to share insights on how best to research the effectiveness of peace operations and to explore the establishment of a network that could seek to address this gap. The seminar discussed how to research and measure the effectiveness of peace operations. It looked at current definitions and conceptualizations of effectiveness, and it discussed the varying perceptions stakeholders have of the effectiveness of peace operations. The group also explored the options for establishing a network dedicated to research on the effectiveness of peace operations. The seminar agreed on the value of establishing such a network, with an aim to produce knowledge that is both academically valuable and relevant for policymakers. Hence, it considered different organizational modalities for a potential research network, with regards to governing principles, funding, and how researchers could undertake joint research projects. This report summarizes the key conclusions and recommendations from the seminar, and lists what the next steps may be for the establishment of a research network on the effectiveness of peace operations.

  • Peace operations
  • United Nations
  • Peace operations
  • United Nations
Publications
Publications
Report

Plug and Play: Multinational Rotation Contributions for UN Peacekeeping Operations

In January 2016, Norway deployed a C-130 military transport aircraft to the UN mission in Mali (MINUSMA). Given the number of attacks on patrols and logistics convoys of MINUSMA, which has been called ‘the world’s most dangerous UN mission’, a military transport aircraft like the C-130 is considered a critical enabler to the UN mission, whose ability to operate safely and carry out its mandate has often been limited by the lack of air assets. From the beginning of the mission in July 2013, European troop-contributing countries (TCCs) have provided military aircrafts (C-130s and smaller C-160s and C-295s), but the difference between these and the 2016 deployment was that the latter was longer term, providing more predictability for the UN since it would be part of a multinational rotation contribution (MRC) initiated by Norway, followed by Portugal, Denmark, Sweden and Belgium.

  • Security policy
  • Foreign policy
  • United Nations
  • Security policy
  • Foreign policy
  • United Nations
Publications
Publications
Book

Rising Powers and Peacebuilding: Breaking the Mold

This book is open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. This edited volume examines the policies and practices of rising powers on peacebuilding. It analyzes how and why their approaches differ from those of traditional donors and multilateral institutions. The policies of the rising powers towards peacebuilding may significantly influence how the UN and others undertake peacebuilding in the future. This book is an invaluable resource for practitioners, policy makers, researchers and students who want to understand how peacebuilding is likely to evolve over the next decades.

  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • International organizations
  • United Nations
  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • International organizations
  • United Nations
Publications
Publications
Scientific article

Peace Enforcement in Africa: Doctrinal distinctions between the African Union and United Nations

When the United Nations (UN) Security Council needs to authorize a peace enforcement operation in Africa, its partner of choice is the African Union (AU). Africa has developed significant peace operations capacity over the past decade. In addition to deploying eight AU operations, Africa now contributes 50% of all UN peacekeepers. African stability operations, like its mission in Somalia, are often described as peace enforcement operations. In this article, the author questions whether it is accurate to categorize African stability operations as peace enforcement? This article answers the question by considering what the criteria are that are used to differentiate between peace enforcement and peacekeeping operations in the UN context. The author then uses the peace enforcement criteria to assess whether AU stabilization operations would qualify as peace enforcement operations. In conclusion, he considers the implications of the findings for the strategic partnership between the AU and the UN.

  • Africa
  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • International organizations
  • United Nations
  • Africa
  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
  • International organizations
  • United Nations
Publications
Publications
Report

Measuring the Success of Peace Operations: Directions in Academic Literature

This background paper examines how the academic literature has approached the question of success in peace operations. Here it should be noted that many theoretical and methodological issues have not been settled, nor does this contribution seek to resolve them. The aim here is to shed light on the issue, and indicate where choices need to be made for research into success to be rigorous. The first section examines differences between the way that scholarly and practitioner analyses approach this question. The section that follows looks at how the academic literature has approached the definition of success and where some of the fault-lines lie. In the conclusion I outline a number of methodological decisions that need to be made when conducting research on success.

  • Peace operations
  • Peace operations