Researcher
Arne Melchior
Contactinfo and files
Summary
Arne Melchior’s research areas include international trade and global development; trade policy and international economic institutions; international inequality; geographical economics and regional development; Asia, India and China. Ph.D. (Dr. Polit., 1997) in economics from the University of Oslo, on international economic integration.
He has been head of the international economics group at NUPI for extended periods, and Assistant Director (3 years). Before research career: Experience from international trade negotiations as government official; including multilateral trade negotiations, and bilateral negotiations with several Asian countries. Experience from managing a large number of research projects.
Expertise
Education
1997 Dr. polit., University of Oslo, Dept. of Economics. Dissertation: On the Economics of Market Access and International Economic Integration.
1990 Cand. polit, economics, University of Bergen, Norway, specialisation in economics, thesis: On the impact of quotas on low-cost imports of clothing
1981 Certificate of Advanced European Studies, Bruges, Belgium. Specialisation: International economics.
Work Experience
1989- Research Fellow/Senior Research Fellow/Head of Department/Assistant Director at NUPI
1981-1987 Senior Executive Officer/Head of Division, Ministry of Trade and Shipping, Norway
Aktivitet
Filter
Clear all filtersFree Trade Agreements and Globalisation. In the Shadow of Brexit and Trump.
The book provides a comprehensive analysis of free trade agreements (FTAs); their number, content and impact. It examines trade and FTAs for the whole world, split into seven major regions. The book presents a new numerical model of world trade, with results from 110 countries and regions. The results shed light on the impact of FTA, as well as the growth of China and the value of trade in general. The book also contains analysis of the sub-regional impact of trade and trade policy for large nations. It also includes some teaching material.
Feeding India: Poverty, prices and value chains
With India’s massive poverty, food issues rank high on the policy agenda, including food consumption and food prices, and the income and power distribution along the food value chains. In recent work, NUPI researchers and partners have shed new light on key issues in the field.
Ten years of economic reforms in Cuba: the way forward
How successful have economic reforms been in Cuba? And what alternatives are there?
A more connected Asia – new possibilities in Europe?
Trade and infrastructure projects are booming in Asia. How may relations between countries in Asia and Europe change?
Norwegian exports in global value chains
This study analyses the participation of the Norwegian economy in global value chains in 2000-2014, following the gross exports decomposition framework in Koopman, Wang and Wei (2014) and using the World Input-Output Database (WIOD). The analysis shows that Norway increased its participation in global value chains through both backward and forward linkages, but the latter is more dominant and re ects Norway's endowments in natural resources. Moreover, the study reveals that services exports increased substantially during the period analysed and are even higher than manufacturing exports if measured in value-added terms rather than gross terms. This highlights the key role of services in global value chains as well as the relevance of measuring trade in value-added terms.
Handelspolitikken under Trump
(Available in Norwegian only): Rapporten analyserer USAs handelspolitikk under president Trump, nærmere ett år etter Trumps valgseier. Trumps handelspolitikk innebærer slutten på 70 år med USA i ledelsen for det globale handelssystemet. Trumps politikk er fortsatt i utvikling, og bare ¼ av nøkkelstillingene i Trumps administrasjon er besatt. Trumps handelspolitikk er i noen grad en fortsettelse av en trend som har vært synlig det siste tiåret, med gryende polarisering mellom USA og Kina, og strid om hvor bindende det internasjonale samarbeidet i WTO (Verdens Handelsorganisasjon) skal være. Trumps handelspolitikk hviler på en forenklet analyse av USAs handelsunderskudd der handelsavtalene gis skylden; og en tilhørende aggressiv handelspolitikk det handelsavtaler skal reforhandles for å redusere det amerikanske handelsunderskuddet. Analysen gir støtte til at ubalanserte handelsavtaler kan ramme arbeidsplassene, og at ubalansert handel er et problem som bør tas mer alvorlig i handelslitteraturen. Kinas har også satt vestlig industri under press, men dette skyldes Kinas vekst snarere enn handelsavtalene. Balanserte handelsavtaler kan gi både arbeidsplasser og billigere import, og er derfor oftest en del av løsningen snarere enn problemet. Ved å bygge på handelsavtalene kan man dessuten utvikle globale regelverk som skaper like vilkår i den globale konkurransen. I motsetning til sine forgjengere kan Trump komme til å bryte med det internasjonale handelssystemet og svekke internasjonalt samarbeid. Trumps økonomiske nasjonalisme kan være til skade for både handelspartnere og det globale handelssystemet. I tillegg kan USA komme til å skyte seg selv i foten fordi proteksjonismen kan ha en betydelig kostnad; spesielt i en tid med omfattende internasjonale verdikjeder.
Asia – Transcending the Middle-Income Challenge
NUPI has the pleasure of hosting the presentations of this year’s Asian Development Outlook. What challenges are middle-income economies facing?
TTIP and Norway: Impact and trade policy options
This study analyzes TTIP, its implications for Norway and Norway’s trade policy choices. TTIP will hardly be concluded under Obama's presidency, but the agreement could become a reality within a few years. TTIP aims at comprehensive cooperation in the regulatory area. In the short term there will be limited harmonization of standards but regulatory cooperation between different systems. In the long term, the goal is stronger cooperation in the regulatory area. TTIP will from what we know not lead to a lowering of European health regulations or a "race to the bottom". If TTIP is realized and Norway remains outside, the EEA Agreement will be little affected and the overall economic impact is moderate. If Norway joins TTIP, there will be a significant real income gain, with estimates ranging from 2236 to 6772 NOK per capita in the various scenarios. There is considerable variation across sectors. With Norway outside TTIP there will be a moderate negative impact for a majority of the sectors, especially some manufacturing sectors that face tougher competition in the EU and USA export markets. The oil industry will benefit from increased demand and higher prices. If Norway joins TTIP, a clear majority of industries will benefit; especially business services and a number of other service industries. The public sector gains from TTIP, mainly due to cheaper inputs. TTIP will contribute to the dismantling of import protection for Norwegian agriculture and without compensating measures, production and employment will be reduced. TTIP will still allow some import protection and this margin of maneuver, which depends on future negotiations, is important for the outcome. With a larger margin of manoeuvre and unchanged budgetarty support, most of Norway’s agriculture can be maintained. With less margin of manoeuvre, it will be more challenging. Norwegian accession to TTIP may occur in the form of a standard trade agreement in which Norway or EFTA are formally equal to the EU and the United States. Alternatively, Norway may participate in a European pillar as in today's "Open Skies" agreement on air traffic. If TTIP succeeds in establishing comprehensive regulatory cooperation, the latter solution is most likely. Such a solution implies that Norway will become more closely integrated with the European Union also in trade policy towards third countries. Norwegian entry into TTIP implies that we have to accept the established rules and negotiate bilaterally with the EU and the USA on market access. The negotiations with the USA will apply to all aspects of market access, while negotiations with the EU will apply only to areas in which the EEA agreement is not already deeper. The negotiations with the EU for TTIP entry will thus include, among other issues, tariffs for seafood and agriculture. As an alternative to membership in TTIP, Norway or EFTA may initiate a trade agreement with the USA. Such an agreement would likely be less extensive in the regulatory area. Such an agreement will also provide an economic gain for Norway, but less than accession to TTIP. For Norway as a whole, accession to TTIP creates a real income gain between 12.5 and 35 billion NOK according to various scenarios, while a free trade agreement with the United States results in a gain of about 7.4 billion NOK. TTIP also includes negotiations on so-called Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS), whereby foreign-owned companies can sue a state if they are unfairly or inappropriately treated. Such rights also exist in national law but international tribunals have to some extent extended the interpretation of what is considered unfair. The European Union has proposed a solution in TTIP with a permanent court as well as rules that discipline the interpretation of the principles, and thus avoids that ISDS unduly interferes into the states’ "right to regulate". This and many other issues are analysed in this report and six background papers.
Food Price Differences Across Indian States: Patterns and Determinants
The paper examines food price differences across Indian states during 2004-2014 using food consumer prices from household surveys and wholesale/retail prices for selected goods. At the individual product level there are large price differences across states, with prices doubling or trebling across India for a typical case, but with considerable variation across products. Price dispersion is still high but considerably lower for food on average; measured at this level price dispersion between Indian states is considerably lower than between countries within the same income range, and Indian states are slightly more integrated than countries in Western Europe. At the product level, the most important determinants of price differences across states are limited access to supply from other states, and the extent of own production in the state. Richer states have higher consumer prices, but this income-price link is weaker for wholesale prices. Food price dispersion within India has decreased during the period studied. For policy, the results suggest that India should eliminate obstacles to inter-state trade in order to promote food security and the real income of its citizens. The magnitude and importance of price level differences also suggest that better price level data should be provided in the future, to facilitate further study of India’s regional development.
TTIP and third countries: The role of trade policy spillovers
Some recent analysis of TTIP has predicted a more positive outcome for third countries because it was assumed that that trade barrier reductions in TTIP also benefited third countries in the form of ”trade policy spillovers”. The article examines the conceptual and empirical foundation for such spillovers and concludes that they are real and a potentially important phenomenon, but current estimates related to TTIP are uncertain and need a stronger theoretical and empirical foundation. Spillovers take different forms and vary across sectors and trade policy measures, and they often reach only a subset of countries rather than the whole world. The fear of trade diversion from preferential trade agreements (PTAs) can also create ”domino effects” whereby third countries initiate new agreements. Some trade policy spillovers can be expected from TTIP, but ”domino effects” are likely more important than the global diffusion of standards. The main reason is that regulatory differences between the EU and the USA limit the scope for harmonization of standards in TTIP.