Researcher
Cedric H. de Coning
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Summary
Cedric de Coning is a Research Professor in the Research Group on Peace, Conflict and Development at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI).
His research focuses on how the United Nations and other multilateral institutions can more effectively sustain peace and security, with particular attention to mediation, peace operations and peacebuilding.
Drawing on complexity theory, he developed Adaptive Peace, a framework for sustaining peace and security amid the uncertainty of an increasingly turbulent global order. At NUPI he leads several international research projects on climate, peace and security, on artificial intelligence in peace and security, and on the effectiveness of peace operations.
He also contributes to the Training for Peace programme and the UN Peace and Stabilisation Operations project. He is a senior advisor to ACCORD and Editor-in-Chief of the African Journal on Conflict Resolution. A former South African diplomat and UN peacekeeper, he has served in various advisory roles with the African Union and the United Nations, including on the Secretary-General's Advisory Board for the UN Peacebuilding Fund.
Expertise
Education
2012 PhD, Applied Ethics, Department of Philosophy, University of Stellenbosch
2005 M.A., Conflict Management and Peace Studies, University of KwaZula-Natal
Work Experience
2020- Research Professor, NUPI
2012-2020 Senior Researcher, NUPI
2006-2012 Researcher, NUPI
2002- Senior Advisor (Consultant), ACCORD
2002 Training Officer, UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO)
2001-2002 Political Affairs Officer, Office of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG), UN Transitional Administration in East Timor (UNTAET)
2001 Civil Affairs Officer, Office of District Affairs, UN Transitional Administration in East Timor (UNTAET)
2000 Assistant Director: Programmes, ACCORD
1999-2000 Civil Affairs Officer, Bobonaro District UN Transitional Administration in East Timor (UNTAET)
1997-1999 Programme Manager: Peacekeeping, ACCORD
1988-1997 Assistant Director, Department of Foreign Affairs, Pretoria, South Africa
Aktivitet
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Simulating Peace: Inside the Adaptive Peace Simulation
In this episode of the NUPI podcast The World Stage, Cedric de Coning (NUPI) sits down with Dirk Bruin and Tomas Veloz of the Center Leo Apostel f...
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Somaila*
Somalia continues to grapple with increasingly severe and frequent climate shocks that impede people’s livelihoods, worsen the existing humanitarian crisis and influence local conflict dynamics over access to natural resources. In November 2025, after four consecutive failed rainy seasons had affected millions of people, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) declared a national drought emergency. Strong El Niño conditions are forecast to bring wetter-than-usual conditions during the October–December 2026 deyr rainy season, with a high risk of floods in central and southern Somalia. Some communities experience successive periods of drought and flooding without sufficient time to recover between shocks. These adverse effects of climate change are interacting with a volatile security situation, influenced by political competition and fragmentation, as well as continued clashes with al-Shabab, which contribute to deepening an already dire humanitarian crisis.
Africa’s Geostrategic Paradox in a Changing Global Order
This event will examine the AU's evolving role in a changing global order and how it can strengthen Africa's influence in international decision-making.
From armed conflict to climate risk
Development assistance to Afghanistan, including over USD 800 million in climate financing, was suspended in 2021. This seminar asks what can be done, and which structures on the ground can carry the work.
Modeling and Simulating Complex Conflict Management Using Reaction Networks
Evidence suggests that protracted conflicts persist because several forms of socio-political organization run simultaneously on the same population, resources, and territory. Reading Service’s typology of bands, tribes, chiefdoms, and states not as evolutionary stages but as coexisting and superposed social organizations, we model conflict as a reaction network where each social form is a self-maintaining set of stocks—a chemical organization—and conflicts arise where competing productive logics between organizations generate stocks with negative connotation, such as grievances and displacement. Taking the Lake Chad Basin as inspiration, we build a ladder of progressively richer models arriving a mixed chiefdom–state configuration compatible with current views on the conflict. As the model complexifies, kinetic approaches become uninformative; we therefore develop complementary stoichiometric methods that are parameter-free and thus are far easier to measure and compute. These diagnostics reveal a structural bias toward conflict: transitions into conflict regimes are systematically richer than transitions out. We show how a dual chiefdom–state form acts as a conflict attractor within a closed conflict–peace loop that transits among documented different forms of organization. Conflict management then becomes the identification of the mechanisms that redirect rather than change the state of a self-sustaining organization—here, elite-surplus redistribution—and of the timescales at which such redirection is observable, turning intervention design into a structural rather than a parameter-tuning problem.
Breakfast seminar: The Role of UN Peacebuilding in a World Characterised by Greater Geopolitical Tensions
For every dollar invested in peace, nearly 100 are invested in preparing for war. At this seminar, we will discuss how the peacebuilding community can better mobilize the political and financial support it needs.
From the Primacy of Politics to Benchmarks: Realising UNISFA’s Protection of Civilians Approach in Abyei
Situated between the disputed borders of South Sudan and Sudan, the Abyei region (also referred to as “the Box”) has been characterised by political uncertainty, insecurity, and competing claims to authority. Over the years, Abyei has become increasingly volatile, with a mix of criminal activity, large-scale seasonal incursions, armed persistent intrusion, and highly localised cross-border dynamics. These developments have not only defined everyday life in Abyei but have also become intertwined with broader conflict dynamics in both Sudan and South Sudan. In response to tensions surrounding the region, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) established the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA) through Resolution 1990 on 27 June 2011. Since its deployment, UNISFA has been mandated to maintain peace and security, support stability and development, facilitate the implementation of the Abyei Protocol, and contribute to border demarcation through the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism (JBVMM). The mission has also played a critical role in supporting local governance structures and fostering engagement between communities and administrations. However, the political and security landscape of Abyei has changed considerably since 2011, presenting new challenges for the mission.
The Adaptive Peacebuilding Guidebook
When we hear the word “peace”, we often think of the end of a war, a peace agreement, or large-scale reconstruction efforts that follow a conflict. In reality, however, peace does not emerge the day after a conflict ends. Rather, it is nurtured gradually through everyday interactions, relationships, and collective efforts. Peace is not something that can be delivered from the outside; it is something that emerges from within societies and communities themselves. The “Adaptive Peacebuilding Guidebook” seeks to translate this understanding into a practical framework through the approach known as Adaptive Peacebuilding. The academic foundations, theories, and concepts underpinning Adaptive Peacebuilding have already been articulated in the book Adaptive Peacebuilding: A New Approach to Sustaining Peace in the 21st Century . Adaptive Peacebuilding views peacebuilding not as a process of implementing predetermined plans or applying universal solutions, but as a process through which people learn, reflect, and adapt collectively in response to changing circumstances. Based on the academic insights presented in that book, the newly published guidebook to Adaptive Peacebuilding clearly summarizes the concept of Adaptive Peacebuilding for practitioners and presents eight case studies from United Nations agencies, bilateral development agencies such as JICA, and NGOs.