Russian Repertoires of Power in the MENA region (RUSMENA)

Over the past decade Russia has returned as a more active actor in this region. The return of Russia has triggered a new dynamic in the region where also other actors have vital interests. Russia’s attitude towards conflicts in the region in the wake of the Arab spring and Russia’s direct intervention in the war in Syria have resulted in renewed interest in Russian power practices.

The RUSMENA project uses the concept of repertoire of power as an analytical tool to examine Russian power practices in the MENA region – 20 countries stretching from Iran in the east to Morocco in the west. When intervening in the region Russia bundles various instruments of power together to achieve its strategic objectives.

We assume that the way Russia uses various instruments of power is rooted in Russian strategic culture and that Russia combines traditional power practices with new approaches to power to achieve these objectives in the most efficient manner. ‘Repertoire of power’ is in this project understood as a set of available policy options and a relatively stable array of tactics that countries traditionally employ when competing for influence, in this case in a region that is strategically important not only to Russia, but also to other great powers.

The MENA region always has been an area of great-power competition. As one of the great powers competing for influence, Russia has employed various instruments of power to pursue its goals and has been able to fill a power niche, conducting a surprisingly active, cost-effective and challenging policy in the region. By examining continuity, variation, change and innovation in Russian approaches to the region this project will seek to obtain a more nuanced and detailed picture of crucial aspects of Russian policymaking in the region, and more generally.

RUSMENA Developments

Since its inception in 2021, the context for RUSMENA's research has changed. The ongoing war in Ukraine and internal developments in Russia, particularly the Prigozhin rebellion, has clearly undermined the stability of the Russian regime. Developments in the Middle East, with a new round in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that flared up in October 2023, have also largely influenced Russia's policy towards the MENA region. 

As a result, the implementation of the RUSMENA project has been largely influenced by several factors. The most important of these is undoubtedly the growing tension in relations between Russia and the West, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which has brought about changes in the composition of the project team and has placed limitations on cooperation with Russian institutions. To remedy this problem, the project team chose to initiate extensive collaboration with leading European expert milieus that work on the same issues. For example, this has included seminars in collaboration with the LUISS University in Rome and the European University Institute in Florence’s Middle East Directions program.

Workshop on Russia's Power and Strategies of Influence in the wider Mediterranean

On 7 February 2025, NUPI’s RUSMENA project and the Luiss Mediterranean Platform organized a closed workshop on the evolution of Russia’s Power and Strategies of Influence in the Wider Mediterranean. The discussion brought together a select group of participants from academia and focused on how shifting regional and international dynamics are reshaping Moscow’s foreign and security policies. The workshop drew on insights from our research, including the eBook Russia’s Soft Power Strategies in the MENA Region and Africa.

Participants examined Russia’s use of both military and soft power, its evolving partnerships in the region, and its growing presence in Africa. A key focus was how local societies, elites and regional actors at various levels perceive and respond to Russian influence, analyzed through case studies and broader geopolitical trends. Following members of the RUSMENA team participated in this event, presenting the respective papers: Jakub M. Godzimirski and Iver B. Neumann presented: Russian Power Repertoire in the MENA Region in the Context of the War in Ukraine; Julie Wilhelmsen and Karen Philippa Larsen: Russia’s Syria (Dis)Engagement – What Does it Mean for the Russian PMC in the Region?; Jeff Mankoff: The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Middle East, and Russia-Turkish Relations; and Tine Gade: Russia and the Gulf: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Membership in BRICS.  

This workshop followed LUISS project on Russia’s soft power financed by the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which highlights how Moscow complements its military expansion in the region with cultural diplomacy, strategic communication, and media influence. Understanding Russia’s role in the Broader Mediterranean remains crucial, and we look forward to continuing this dialogue in the months ahead. 

The full program of the seminar is available here. You can watch a video from the workshop here.

Activities and contributions

2025

• 07.02.2025 NUPI RUSMENA LUISS Workshop Russia’s Power and Strategies of Influence in the Wider Mediterranean in Rome. See above for more information.

2024

• 16.01.2024 Presentation for HR Norge in Lillehammer on the war in Ukraine, the Middle East and Russia
• April 2024 Jakub M. Godzimirski held a presentation on Russian security policy and its possible impact on Norway at Å Entelios' conference Brytningstid
• 20-24.05.2024 Jakub M. Godzimirski took part in 2024 Association for the Study of Nationalities Convention in New York where he presented the paper Russian repertoires of power: comparing Russian power practices in Ukraine and the MENA Region. This paper presents a comparative examination of Russian strategic objectives in the two regions – MENA and Ukraine – as well as a detailed examination of Russian power practices and repertoires used in the country’s pursuit of these objectives in the two geographical and historical contexts.
• 31.05.2024 Lecture on research ethics and war in the Middle East, UiO
• May/June 2024 Jakub M. Godzimirski held several presentations on the impact of Russian security policy in Russia's neighbourhood
• June 2024 Several members of the RUSMENA team participated in the CEEISA-ISA Joint International Conference Knowing the global-local: Imagining pasts, debating futures in Rijeka (Croatia). The papers presented included Jakub M, Godzimirski’s paper Mapping Russian repertoires of power in the Global South: the case of MENA region in the context of the war in Ukraine, and Jeff Mankoff’s paper New chapter in the great power rivalry in the Global South: the case of MENA. Godzimirski and Mankoff were also involved as chairs and commentators at other CEEISA-ISA panels. 
• 18.06.2024 Lecture on Russia and the Middle East for PST Oslo
• 23.07.2024 Iver B. Neumann published an op-ed on the challenges to the global order caused amongst others by China’s and Russia’s revisionist policies, but also by the growing isolationism in the USA
• 19.09.2024 Jakub M. Godzimirski’s chapter Will Iran Challenge Russia's Position as A Major Global Energy Player? was published in Abdolrasool Divsallar (ed.) Struggle for Alliance. Russia and Iran in the Era of War in Ukraine by I.B. Taurus/Bloomsbury. 
• 26.09.2024 Lecture on the current geopolitical situation for Utlendingsnemda, Bærum
• 2024 Jakub M. Godzimirski held several presentations on the role of energy as an instrument of power in Russian foreign and security policy

2023

• 2022-2023 Siri Neset conducted field work in Turkey in cooperation with Turkish policymakers and experts
• 28.01.2023 Iver B. Neumann og Einar Wiggen wrote an op-ed in Aftenposten on the Turkish approach towards NATO enlargement
• 04.05.2023 Siri Neset held a presentation for Senterpartiet's Storting group on Turkey under Erdogan
• June 2023 Jeff Mankoff conducted a study tour to the MENA region visiting Israel, Jordan and UEA in June 2023. Based on the results of this study tour, the article Middle Eastern States and the War in Ukraine: Between Fear and Opportunity was published in April 2024. 
• 24.06.2023 Jakub M. Godzimirski commented on Prigozhin, Wagner at NRK  
• 26.06.2023 Jakub M. Godzimirski commentsed on Prigozhin, internal conflict in Russia and Wagner Groups role in Africa and the Middle East at NRK
• 05.09.2023 Jakub M. Godzimirski held a presentation at Petroleumstilsynets fagdag on War in Ukraine, Russia and European Energy
• 07.09.2023 The Norwegian UN Association hosted one of their international breakfast events at Deichman Tøyen in Oslo, this time on Russian and Turkish coups. Julie Wilhelmsen and Sidsel Wold (NRK) participated.
• 12.09.2023 Panel discussion on geopolitics, China and Russia in Africa as part of an internal seminar in the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Section for Sustainable Development. Julie Wilhelmsen, Jo Inge Bekkevold (IFS) and Morten Bøås (NUPI) participated. 
• 19.10.2023 Jakub M. Godzimirski took part in Montel Group Webinar on the impact of the conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine on the regional and global energy markets.
• 19.10.2023 Jakub M. Godzimirski participated in the podcast episode "Is energy infrastructure vulnerable to attack?" for the Montel Group focusing on the issue of protection of critical energy infrastructure in the light of the war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East
• 4.11.2023 Julie Wilhelmsen held a presentation at the conference "‘Alternativer til krig – veier til fred: Konferanse om Ukrainakrigen og dens internasjonale konsekvenser" at Litteraturhuset, Oslo, about Russia's development after the Ukraine war and potential role in the future's multipolar world. 
• 2023 Siri Neset wrote What Turkey wants: Turkey’s objection to Finland and Sweden’s NATO Membership Applications. IFS Insights 3/2023.
• 2023 Siri Neset and Arne Strand (CMI) wrote "South Caucasus, in the shadow of Ukraine" at CMI. 

2022

• 17.01.2022 RUSMENA online kick off seminar  
• 19.04.2022 Jeff Mankoff published the book Empires of Eurasia: How Imperial Legacies Shape International Security, in which he addresses many of the RUSMENA-related questions concerning great power competition in the Eurasian context
• 01.06.2022 Round tables with the LUISS University in Rome 
• 02.06.2022 Round tables with Middle East Directions program at the European University Institute in Florence
• 14.10.2022 Siri Neset held a lecture, Sjefskurset, on a visit to Istanbul about Turkish foreign and security policy: Structures and processes of decision-making, Security policy drivers and actions