Research project
Coalition of the Willing for Ukraine Tracker
By creating a Coalition of the Willing, allied leaders acted upon the growing recognition that Europe must take the lead in securing Ukraine’s future, and NATO has de facto been ruled out as an option. This project explores whether allies in the Coalition of the Willing have the political resolve and military capacity to send forces—by land, sea, or air—to secure Ukraine’s future. A coalition format allows for overcoming gridlock in NATO, and react swiftly and flexibly to a rapidly changing security context. Yet, we also know that coalitions require leadership, active coordination and political strategy.
Through a series of policy briefs, leading experts from 16 participating countries assess the coalition's readiness to contribute to a Multinational Force Ukraine. They examine when such a deployment may occur (before, during, or after peace negotiations), the roles the forces could assume (defensive or offensive), the red lines set by national governments, and the specific capabilities each country could realistically provide. These analyses are complemented with two briefs providing perspectives from Ukraine and the United States.
Together this forms a first comprehensive analysis of the Coalition of the Willing and the Multinational Force Ukraine. In the introduction brief, we sketch the overall picture that emerges and provide recommendations for involved policy-makers.
The briefs cover:
0. Introduction: A Multinational Force in the Making (Yf Reykers, Maastricht University; John Karlsrud, NUPI)
1. Belgium (Yf Reykers, Maastricht University; Tim Haesebrouck and Michelle Haas, Ghent University)
2. Canada (Justin Massie, Université du Québec à Montréal)
3. Czech Republic (Vojtěch Bahenský, Charles University)
4. Denmark (Peter Viggo Jakobsen, Danish Royal Defence College)
5. Estonia (Kristi Raik and Helena Eglit, International Centre for Defence and Security)
6. Finland (Tyyne Karjalainen and Joel Linnainmäki, Finnish Institute of International Affairs)
7. France (David Cadier from IRSEM and Élie Tenenbaum, French Institute of International Relations)
8. Germany (Niklas Ebert and Claudia Major, German Marshall Fund)
9. Italy (Fabrizio Coticchia and Matteo Mazziotti, University of Genoa)
10. Latvia (Karlis Bukovskis, Latvian Institute of International Affairs and Maris Cepuritis, Riga Stradins University and Director of the Eastern Policy Research Center)
11. Lithuania (Margarita Šešelgytė, Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University)
12. Netherlands (Niels van Willigen and Sabine Mengelberg, Netherlands Defence Academy)
13. Norway (John Karlsrud and Karsten Friis, NUPI)
14. Poland (Monika Sus, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poland & European University Institute, Italy)
15. Sweden (Jan Frelin and Calle Håkansson, Swedish Defence Research Agency)
16. United Kingdom (Ed Arnold, Royal United Services Institute)
17. United States (Max Bergmann, Center for Strategic & International Studies)
18. Ukraine (Stanislav Boiko and Lesia Ogryzko, Sahadachnyi Security Center)
Project Manager
External
Co-project manager: Yf Reykers, Associate Professor, Maastricht University, https://www.maastrichtuniversity.nl/y-reykers
Articles
New publications
Ukraine: Sobered after Four Years of Indecision
In the Multinational Force Ukraine series of policy briefs leading experts from allied countries assess key factors for participation in the Multinational Force Ukraine. This includes the political willingness of allies to deploy troops—on the ground, in the air, or at sea—to establish a military presence in or around Ukraine. They also examine the conditions for such deployments to occur (before, during, or after peace negotiations), the roles these forces would be expected to perform (defensive or offensive), the red lines imposed by national governments, and the specific capabilities each country could realistically contribute. This brief analyses the Ukraine.
United States: Europe with Eyes Wide Shut
In the Multinational Force Ukraine series of policy briefs leading experts from allied countries assess key factors for participation in the Multinational Force Ukraine. This includes the political willingness of allies to deploy troops—on the ground, in the air, or at sea—to establish a military presence in or around Ukraine. They also examine the conditions for such deployments to occur (before, during, or after peace negotiations), the roles these forces would be expected to perform (defensive or offensive), the red lines imposed by national governments, and the specific capabilities each country could realistically contribute. This brief analyses the United States.
Lithuania: Balancing Ambition with Capacity
In the Multinational Force Ukraine series of policy briefs leading experts from allied countries assess key factors for participation in the Multinational Force Ukraine. This includes the political willingness of allies to deploy troops—on the ground, in the air, or at sea—to establish a military presence in or around Ukraine. They also examine the conditions for such deployments to occur (before, during, or after peace negotiations), the roles these forces would be expected to perform (defensive or offensive), the red lines imposed by national governments, and the specific capabilities each country could realistically contribute. This brief analyses Lithuania.
Coalition of the Willing for Ukraine: A Multinational Force in the Making
In March 2025, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron launched a Coalition of the Willing to support Ukraine. Militarily, 26 countries have reportedly committed to securing Ukraine with troops on land, at sea, and in the air “the day after a ceasefire or peace,” under a planned Multinational Force Ukraine. This briefing highlights the main findings from a collection of country profiles. It concludes that a Multinational Force Ukraine is still hypothetical, but if it materializes, coalition members will be in for the long run. European leaders should act, plan, and prepare based on that assumption.
Germany: heavy on funding, light on force
In the Multinational Force Ukraine series of policy briefs leading experts from allied countries assess key factors for participation in the Multinational Force Ukraine. This includes the political willingness of allies to deploy troops—on the ground, in the air, or at sea—to establish a military presence in or around Ukraine. They also examine the conditions for such deployments to occur (before, during, or after peace negotiations), the roles these forces would be expected to perform (defensive or offensive), the red lines imposed by national governments, and the specific capabilities each country could realistically contribute. This brief analyses Germany.
Project Manager
External
Co-project manager: Yf Reykers, Associate Professor, Maastricht University, https://www.maastrichtuniversity.nl/y-reykers