Four years of attritional warfare: How NUPI has contributed knowledge on Ukraine and European security

Four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Europe remains in the midst of its most serious security crisis since the Second World War. Here you will find an overview of NUPI’s resources on the topic.

Published: February 23, 2026 Ane Teksum Isbrekken

People

Natalia Moen-Larsen

Senior Research Fellow

John Karlsrud

Research Professor

Julie Wilhelmsen

Research Professor, Head of the Research group for Eastern Europe and Asia

Karsten Friis

Research Professor

Niels Nagelhus Schia

Research Professor, Head of the Research group on security and defense, Head of NUPI's Research Centere on New Technology

Matthew Blackburn

Senior Research Fellow

Jakub M. Godzimirski

Research Professor

Roman Vakulchuk

Research Professor, Head of Research group on climate and energy

Kristian Lundby Gjerde

Senior Research Fellow

Senior Research Fellow, Head of the Research Group on Global Order and Diplomacy

Kristin Fjæstad

Senior Research Fellow

Jon Harald Sande Lie

Research Professor, Head of the Research group on Peace, Conflict and Development

Kari M. Osland

Director

The war has reshaped power relations, strengthened defence cooperation, and challenged fundamental principles of sovereignty and international law.

Since the invasion, researchers at NUPI have analysed the war and its consequences from multiple perspectives: military, political, economic, and societal. Through research, analysis, educational resources, and events, the institute has contributed to strengthening the knowledge base for decision-makers, journalists, teachers, and the wider public.

"First and foremost, this is a war in which Ukrainian soldiers and civilians are killed and injured every day, affecting an entire society. Enormous numbers of lives are also being lost on the Russian side, but this is a war of aggression that Russia can choose to end. Secondly, this is not a distant conflict: the war is shaping European security and international politics, and is contributing to changing the rules of the game in the international system, and thereby also Norway’s security, alliances, and foreign policy choices in the years ahead. One of NUPI’s most important tasks is to help us better understand what is happening, and what it means in both the short and long term," says NUPI Director Kari M. Osland.

Broad research efforts on the war and its consequences

NUPI’s research has addressed key questions such as:

how Ukrainians themselves relate to the war, their authorities, and the question of EU membership
how Russia has changed politically and strategically since the invasion
how the war affects energy markets, economic developments, and global food security
what the war means for NATO, Europe, and Norwegian security
possible outcomes of the war and what will be required to achieve a stable peace

Through research projects and publications, NUPI has contributed analyses on European defence cooperation, Western support to Ukraine, and developments within Russia after 2022.

NUPI has also established a dedicated Ukraine Centre to consolidate and strengthen the institute’s research and outreach on the topic.

"Few would have imagined that the war would last this long, and after four difficult years, the consequences are enormous — above all for Ukraine. We do not know how long the war will continue or what the outcome will be, and it is essential to maintain continuous analysis and research on the war and its consequences, both for Ukraine and for the rest of the world," says one of the Centre’s two directors, Senior Research Fellow Natalia Moen-Larsen.

Providing knowledge to the public, schools, and decision-makers

NUPI has maintained extensive outreach on the war through news articles, analysis, podcasts, and public events.

Through educational resources at NUPI School, the institute has explained the causes and consequences of the war to upper secondary school students, helping strengthen young people’s understanding of international politics.

NUPI researchers have also frequently served as expert voices in Norwegian and international media, helping explain a complex and rapidly evolving conflict.

"Reliable knowledge is essential in a time marked by uncertainty. Our role is to provide research-based insights that can help both decision-makers and society at large understand these developments", says the NUPI Ukraine Centre’s other director, Research Professor John Karlsrud.

A war that continues to shape Europe’s future

Four years after the invasion, the outcome of the war remains uncertain. At the same time, it has already led to lasting changes in European security, defence policy, and relations between Russia and the West.

NUPI will continue to monitor developments in Ukraine and analyse what they mean for Norway, Europe, and the international system.

Click on the resources below to learn more. For a full overview including Norwegian publications, news articles, op-eds, podcasts, NUPI School articles and events, see the Norwegian version of this page.