Publications
Fellesskap i fare
Norge og Europa i en ny verdensorden. Hvordan skal det gå med Europa når måten verden virker på endrer seg totalt? De siste årene har europeiske politikere hatt hendene fulle med å samle støtte til Ukrainas krig mot Russland. I mellomtiden går stormaktene rundt oss bort fra samarbeid, og mot rivalisering og konkurranse. For EU er det heller ikke mye hjelp å hente fra Donald Trumps USA. Den liberale orden som har bidratt til dyp fred i Europa forvitrer for hver dag som går, også støttet av reaksjonære krefter innad. Alt dette fører til at Europa og EU nå konsentrerer seg mest om ett politisk spørsmål: sikkerhet. Men kan EU bli en fullstendig sikkerhetsorientert union og samtidig forsvare sine grunnleggende verdier – demokrati, menneskeverd og frihet? Hvordan kan disse verdiene stå seg i møte med all verdens sikkerhetsutfordringer? Og hvordan kan Norge som et europeisk land utenfor EU manøvrere i den nye verden som vokser frem? Øyvind Svendsen, seniorforsker ved Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt (NUPI), skildrer noen av vår tids største utfordringer på en lett og konsis måte.
The Institutional Dynamics of Global Governance in Hard Times: Innovation or Decline?
In the introduction to this roundtable, we argue that global governance currently faces hard times because it is affected by a set of significant developments revolving around the changing distribution of state power, the rise of nationalist populism, and the frequent occurrence of transnational crises, while seeking to facilitate collective action on complex cooperation problems. Against this backdrop, the essay identifies two major institutional dynamics of global governance in hard times: first, the drift of formal intergovernmental organizations (FIGOs) that is caused by them being gridlocked in a period of significant changes in their social, (geo)political, economic, and technological environment. Second, the proliferation of various types of low-cost institutions. To help us think systematically about how these two interrelated institutional dynamics affect global governance, the essay develops the innovation thesis and the decline thesis. The “innovation thesis” suggests that by transitioning from a rather exclusive and hierarchical system revolving around FIGOs into a more inclusive and heterarchical system revolving around institutional diversity, global governance is currently being adapted to its new environment. The “decline thesis,” by contrast, argues that the two institutional dynamics undermine rules-based multilateralism and may lead to a shift back toward traditional (great) power politics that does not respect institutional constraints.
Reacting to a geopolitical setback: NATO expansion in Sweden and Finland through the lens of Russian geopolitical culture”
The accession of Sweden and Finland to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is typically seen as a serious geopolitical setback for Russia, the opposite of its goals to limit the alliance’s spread eastwards. In contrast to Moscow’s stances on Ukraine and Georgia, however, its reaction to NATO’s Nordic expansion is more ambiguous. This article uses the framework of critical geopolitics to analyse several layers of Russia’s discursive reaction: practical, formal, and popular. This study finds that much of the popular geopolitics continues pre-2022 trends, presenting a securitised and nationalistic construction of NATO as a threatening ‘Other’. On the other hand, more moderate and pragmatic assessments in formal geopolitics balance against bellicosity and highlight the agency of the Nordic states, suggesting Russia may return to peaceful cooperation. In practical geopolitics, there is a gap between discourse and practice. Alongside more negative official discourse on NATO Nordic expansion, there was also reduced Russian military activity and an avoidance of provocative steps. These two faces – realism and pragmatism as opposed to securitised and nationalistic threat deterrence – reflect the structure of Russian geopolitical culture when it is applied to the North and Nordic NATO expansion.
From the Algiers Process to the Inter-Malian Dialogue: Women’s Participation in Peace and Reconciliation Processes in Mali 2013-2025
This research note discusses challenges and opportunities regarding women’s meaningful participation in the Algiers peace process (2013-2023) and the Inter-Malian Dialogue for Peace and National Reconciliation (DIMPR) (2023-2025). Activists, practitioners and policymakers have used UN Security Council Resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security (WPS), the WPS agenda and related policy frameworks to push for women’s meaningful participation, at all levels, in the prevention, management and resolution of conflicts around the world. Still, women remain under-represented in peace processes. In Mali, women, girls and other marginalised groups are directly affected by conflict yet face significant challenges in influencing conflict resolution and dialogue processes. Women’s meaningful participation in future conflict resolution and dialogue efforts in Mali and the Sahel is therefore key to ensuring a broader involvement of the affected populations and more sustainable peaceful solutions.
Report on the Status of Norwegian Support to Women, Peace and Security
This report aims to provide an overview of Norwegian support to WPS, with a focus on the work of the Foreign Service in the priority countries identified in Norway’s National Action Plan for 2023-2030 (NAP). Based on interviews, conversations, observation and desk research, the report discusses the support to WPS and the challenges to implementation in the priority countries. The report also addresses aspects related to institutionalization and mainstreaming, as well as monitoring the progress of implementation and results. The report finds that there is a high degree of knowledge in the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding the work and support to WPS, and that the 2023-2030 NAP has thus far been successful in setting overarching priorities and in mobilizing and raising awareness. Yet there is variation in the extent to which the NAP is a driver or tool of strategic implementation of efforts. Regarding institutionalisation and mainstreaming across the foreign service, the report finds that many important tools, frameworks, policies and practices have been established, but that this work is somewhat uneven and requires continued effort.
Climate, Peace and Security Thematic Fact Sheet: Women, Peace and Security
Climate-related security risks are not gender-neutral; they intersect with existing social, political and economic inequalities, shaping people’s exposure to risk, capacity to adapt and inclusion in peacebuilding. Gender inequalities, such as limited access to financial resources and exclusion from decision making, undermine the ability of women and marginalized groups to respond to climate change and contribute to sustainable peace. To address climate-related security risks effectively, gender considerations must be integrated into analysis, planning and implementation.
Integrating ad hoc coalitions in international conflict management
While United Nations peacekeeping has been in decline since 2014, ad hoc coalitions have become prominent in international conflict management. We argue that these two trends have changed the field of international conflict management into what we call ‘conflict management à la carte’. Contemporary examples of ad hoc coalitions in international conflict management are the Multinational Joint Task Force, fighting the Boko Haram insurgency in the Lake Chad region, but also maritime missions such as the US-led Coalition Task Force Sentinel in the Gulf region and the Kenya-led Multinational Security Support mission in Haiti. After analysing the implications of this turn for international conflict management, we sketch out three types of differentiated ad hoc coalition integration in international conflict management and discuss examples. We then provide recommendations for how to synergize and integrate ad hoc coalitions with UN-led and regional organization-led initiatives, to enhance mission effectiveness and preserve a robust and legitimate toolbox of institutional responses for international conflict management. In conclusion, we argue that as the UN reorients itself towards becoming a service provider through adopting a modular approach, it should continue to invest in interorganizational cooperation on issues of logistics, financial and human rights accountability, including with ad hoc coalitions.
Guns, Butter and Karl Polanyi: Securing Europe in the post-neoliberal world
Trump 2.0 has contested and sought to upturn the so-called liberal international order. Within Europe this entailed leveraging geoeconomic dependence to force NATO members to publicly commit to spending 5% of GDP on defence and the EU into an asymmetrical trade deal. Europe is thus undergoing a guns versus butter debate that threatens the social contract and the solvency of Europe. Taking stock of the scramble across Europe to keep NATO keeping on - and drawing upon research that explores the transnational and economic roots of the rise of the far right - this essay argues that to effectively respond to Trump 2.0 and stem tide of anti-democratic currents will require rethinking contemporary EU economic doxa – imperfectly captured by the term neoliberalism. Such a reckoning should involve a systematic reconsideration of how far and how deep markets and market logics should be institutionalised within European societies. In short, Europe should seek to proactively shape the emerging post-neoliberal trend to seek to ensure that what comes next retains the existing order’s stated commitments to democracy, tolerance, and human dignity. Conversely, failure to rethink Europe’s commitment to neoliberalism risks strengthening those that are convinced the status quo embodies little worth salvaging.
Prospects for Dialogue in the Central Sahel
Over the past decade, dialogue processes have been a cornerstone of national and international efforts to address the multifaceted crisis affecting the countries of the Central Sahel. Since 2020, the military has seized power in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger and radically changed the approach to solving the crisis and the role of dialogue. Is there still room for dialogue as an instrument of peace in the Central Sahel and, if so, in what form? This is a key question this report addresses. Three thematic arenas of dialogue are reviewed: regional diplomatic dialogue, dialogue with jihadist insurgents, and women’s participation in conflict resolution and national dialogue processes. The report takes stock of progress made in these dialogue arenas over the years, discusses the remaining challenges under the Sahelian military regimes, and makes concrete recommendations to national, regional and international actors for how dialogue can be supported in the current political and security climate characterizing the region.
FBA Research Brief: Prospects for Dialogue in the Central Sahel
Over the past decade, dialogue processes have been a cornerstone of national and international efforts to address the multifaceted crisis affecting the countries of the Central Sahel. Since 2020, the military has seized power in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger and radically changed the approach to solving the crisis and the role of dialogue. Is there still room for dialogue as an instrument of peace in the Central Sahel and, if so, in what form? This is a key question this report addresses. Three thematic arenas of dialogue are reviewed: regional diplomatic dialogue, dialogue with jihadist rgents, and women’s participation in conflict resolution and national dialogue processes. The report takes stock of progress made in these dialogue arenas over the years, discusses the remaining challenges under the Sahelian military regimes, and makes concrete recommendations to national, regional and international actors for how dialogue can be supported in the current political and security climate characterizing the region.