Publications
Populism, Energy Transition, and International Politics
In recent years, populist political forces both in power and in opposition have engaged with energy politics in various ways. This chapter discusses how populists influence the international politics of energy. The departure point is a reflection on the specific relationship between populist ideology and international energy politics, and especially how the key dichotomies of populism play out in this political domain. The chapter first defines populism and its core features, then presents energy politics as an unusual and unique area of public policy, highlighting both its domestic and international dimension. It further emphasises the problem of energy transitions as examples of rapid social change, and their role as a fuel for populist contestation, before moving to the two illustrative case studies of the USA under Donald Trump, and of Poland under the Law and Justice party government.
Norway and Poland as members of transatlantic and European security community
The fourth and last NorPolFactor report takes a closer look at the role of Norway and Poland in transatlantic and European security communities. As Europe redefines its security architecture amid shifting global dynamics, Poland and Norway face a dual imperative: reinforcing their role in the transatlantic alliance while adapting to the EU’s growing defense ambitions. Their paths diverge institutionally but converge strategically in facing shared threats and navigating uncertain transatlantic commitments.
Briefing: Developing Global Indicators for Climate Change Adaptation
Measuring climate adaptation progress presents several complex technical and political challenges. Ahead of the UNFCCC June Climate Meetings in Bonn (SB62), this briefing explores key considerations and challenges for developing indicators for the Global Goal on Adaptation that could contribute to effective and scaled-up climate adaptation action. To understand the power of global governance indicators and how to use them judiciously, it is necessary to understand what indicators are and how they are produced. Different kinds of indicators--such as counts, ratios, or composites--can influence policy making and governance processes through a variety of mechanisms. Outcomes on the GGA indicators at COP30 present a unique opportunity for climate adaptation and other related matters to build on work conducted by both negotiators and experts as well as multiple stakeholders and presents the potential to identify measurable approaches for adaptation action. It is important to ensure that the finalised indicators are applicable across different contexts, are not detrimental to developing countries where climate action is most needed and are applied for ensuring the goals of the Paris Agreement are met, and means of implementation are scaled up and accessed for adaptation action. Therefore, the selection of the final indicators needs to take into consideration general approaches to indicator development, especially their applicability in country-specific contexts and their relevance to adaptation.
Trump 2.0 og internasjonal politikk
I denne spesialrapporten har Senter for geopolitikk samlet en rekke bidrag fra forskere tilknyttet senteret, fra Fridtjof Nansen Institutt, Institutt for Forsvarsstudier, Universitetet i Oslo, UiT – Norges Arktiske Universitet og Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt. Bidragene setter søkelys på noen konkrete temaer som inntak til å forstå et USA i endring og hva det vil kunne bety for andre stater, og for utviklingen på konkrete politikkfelt. Rapporten har særlig fokus på hva disse endringene, hver for seg og samlet, betyr for Europa og Norge. En oppdatert versjon ble publisert 12.06.25, klokken 12.40.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Haiti
Located on the Atlantic hurricane belt, Haiti is susceptible to earthquakes and is particularly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change due to its geographical location as well as political instability, extreme poverty and gang violence. Rising sea levels, changing precipitation patterns and frequent natural disasters and extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, floods, droughts, landslides and earthquakes, exacerbate the country’s humanitarian crisis. Flooding during El Niño years worsens existing food insecurity and drives displacement, increasing population pressure on host communities and fuelling social tensions.
Germany’s security and defence policies after the Zeitenwende: New government, new direction?
The German Zeitenwende (turning point of history), introduced in 2022, still has a long way to go when it comes to solving the structural problems that have long beset Germany’s security and defence policies. Moreover, it continues to face considerable domestic opposition. Even so, it remains an important ongoing process, signalling a positive way forward. Germany’s overall foreign, security and defence policy line – which features NATO and the EU as cornerstones – is unlikely to change significantly in the wake of the new conservative–social democratic government taking power. Nonetheless, the new administration will have to show more determination and political will if it is to get things done and assume greater responsibility for Germany’s and Europe’s security. In the shorter term, the German government has secured more funding for security and defence due to the release of the constitutional debt brake. In the medium and long term, however, a sound combination of creating debt and making room in the normal budget for more defence spending (which may also involve tax increases) will be required. At the same time, care must be taken to make more effective and efficient use of the available funds, rather than simply spending ever greater quantities. It would be wise to remain cautious and realistic about Germany’s political and military leadership capabilities in the short term, as the country has a lot of catching up to do in the first instance. Nonetheless, while Germany cannot lead alone in all domains and geographical areas, it can lead by example through continuing along the path it has embarked on. Successful leadership requires effective burden-sharing, meaning that several countries must be willing (whether singularly or jointly) to take the lead on particular issues or in specific geographical areas. Ideally, leadership should be conducted by small(er) groups of likeminded countries, including combinations of bigger and smaller states where appropriate. The close Norwegian–German security and defence partnership is characterized by mutual trust, common values and a long tradition of concrete cooperation, especially when it comes to maritime security. Over the longer term, this partnership can become even more strategic, systematic and sustainable, perhaps providing a model for other countries to follow. Moreover, the close relations between the two countries provides a counter-argument to those who accuse Germany of neglecting the interests of smaller European countries.
Trump, debt and the risk of an own goal
The bond market can bring down governments and force shifts in economic policy, even in great powers, writes Ole Jacob Sending in this op-ed. « I wish I could come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.» This is how James Carville, advisor to Bill Clinton, described the power wielded by the bond market. In 2025, Carville’s quote has regained relevance. The United States’ position as an economic hegemon is under pressure, not least due to a combination of high debt levels and the Trump administration’s irresponsible economic policies. The bond market may be the clearest example of how political power is grounded in economic power – particularly in a globalized world. The effects of this market are felt across all economies, including those of the great powers.
Global militær integrasjon i Indo-Stillehavet
13 marineskip og 84 militærfly og helikoptre fra Europa deltok på øvelser og i operasjoner i Indo-Stillehavet i 2024. Hvorfor var en så stor militær styrke fra Frankrike, Italia, Nederland, Spania, Storbritannia og Tyskland på den andre siden av kloden i fjor? Hvorfor skal det norske Sjøforsvaret og Luftforsvaret delta på øvelser i Indo-Stillehavet i år? Dette diskuterer NUPI-analytiker Per Erik Solli i denne fagartikkelen. Forfatteren har også skrevet en research paper for NUPI med samme tematikk.
How can peacekeeping contribute to advancing Women, Peace and Security?
When UN member states contribute expertise and capacity building, this can simultaneously contribute to advancing Women, Peace and Security. This is, however, likely to be a function of the gender norms of the society and security sector of the Police Contributing Country in question. Police Contributing Countries that seek to contribute to advancing the WPS agenda, should therefore work towards gendering their own security sectors. If gender mainstreaming remains an individual responsibility, advancing gender equality and the WPS agenda in peacekeeping is not likely to have a transformative effect on the security sectors of host countries. Interventions and projects seeking to affect transformative change should target structural factors of gender inequality, such as existing gender norms in the workplace. However, such actions also need to go beyond the security sector itself, as women’s choices are also limited by societal, cultural and religious norms.
Arctic Spillover? Military Signalling in the European Arctic Before and After the Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine
How has Russian and Western military activity in the European Arctic evolved following Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine? Are we seeing a more forward-leaning and assertive Russia, and have NATO allies strengthened their presence? In short, are we seeing an intensified mutual deterrence posture? These crucial questions are made all the more pressing by the region hosting a significant proportion of Russia’s sea-based strategic nuclear arsenal. Against this backdrop, the article analyses developments in both Russian and Western military activity in the European Arctic, with a particular focus on how deterrence is signalled through military posture. The study finds that, despite claims to the contrary, military day-to-day business in the European Arctic remains relatively unchanged. Russia’s activities appear to signal a desire to maintain the status quo rather than revisionist stance. While the West has strengthened its deterrence signalling, its posture remains measured.