Publications
Interpreting cyber-energy-security events: experts, social imaginaries, and policy discourses around the 2016 Ukraine blackout
We analyse the expert debate around a cyber attack in 2016 that caused an electric power blackout in Ukraine. Two expert reports were crucial for interpreting this event, and there are several competing narratives of cybersecurity where the event plays different roles. We show that the most securitized narratives became more prominent and point to the power wielded by private companies and experts in this field.
The European Union's CBAM as a de facto Climate Club: The Governance Challenges
The European Commission has announced far-reaching reforms to accelerate the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Among the proposals constituting the European Green Deal is the adoption of a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to prevent carbon leakage. In practice, however, CBAM will not only act as a shield for the European Emissions Trading System (ETS) but also incentivize other countries to implement compatible carbon pricing schemes. We argue that the EU's CBAM thus de facto has the features of a climate club, but the current proposals and debate do not address how the club would be governed, addressing them involves a trade-off between maintaining control over the direction and ambition of climate policy and CBAM's legitimacy.
Japan ruster opp
(This op-ed is in Norwegian): Japan kan få det tredje største forsvarsbudsjettet i verden, skriver Wrenn Yennie Lindgren og Per Erik Solli i denne DN-kronikken.
Can a ceasefire bring peace to Chad?
Chad's military council signed a ceasefire agreement with dozens of opposition factions. But does it mean anything since the country’s largest rebel group refused to sign on? We look at how the Doha deal can affect peace talks in the country later this month, and a promised presidential election. Dr Andrew E. Yaw Tchie reflects on whether the deal will lead to successful talks in August.
Will Chad's latest peace agreement hold?
Chad's Transitional Military Council has signed a peace deal aimed at ending decades of conflict. The agreement is the first step towards democratic elections and a new constitution. Although many political factions signed the deal, Chad's largest armed group Front for Change and Concord (FACT) walked out of negotiations when its demands were not met. The question then becomes whether the much-anticipated national dialogue will go ahead on August 20. So, how far off is stability and democracy in the Central African nation? Dr Andrew E. Yaw Tchie discusses the implications of the recent events for peace and security in neighbouring countries in the region.
Norges oljedilemma etter Glasgow: Et umoralsk argument for et raskt grønt skifte
(This article is only in Norwegian) Etter å ha gått seirende ut av «klimavalget 2021», står den rødgrønne regjeringen overfor oppgaven med å sikre Norges grønne omstilling. I den offentlige debatten står gjerne argumenter om global solidaritet og miljøhensyn fremst i begrunnelsene for nødvendigheten av en grønn omstilling, mens motstandere av et raskt skifte fokuserer på de negative økonomiske konsekvensene de mener et raskt skifte vil få for Norge. Denne artikkelen søker å nyansere dette bildet, og argumenterer for et bredere kost-nytte-perspektiv som også tar høyde for diplomatiske kostnader ved å fortsette med oljeleting, samt de økonomiske konsekvensene av en treg omstilling. Selv om man holder konsekvensene av klimaendringene helt utenfor vurderingen, argumenterer vi for at usikkerheten rundt fremtidig oljepris og omdømmerisikoen Norge løper ved å fortsette å basere økonomien på ikke-fornybare energikilder, burde være gode argumenter for å revurdere Norges oljepolitikk.
Mapping The Emerging Strategic Stability And Arms Control Landscape
Our nuclear world is changing, and this will have significant impacts on strategic stability and arms control. This is being driven by a mixture of technological, geopolitical and normative forces. Technological change and innovation are facilitating new types of strategic weaponry and missions. These have the potential to challenge established notions of deterrence and create nuclear risks. The combination of an emerging system of nuclear great-power multipolarity at the same time as a growth in “nuclear nationalism” and a return of bellicose nuclear rhetoric and statecraft are challenging traditional power balances, arms control and nuclear stability based on restraint. This is all taking place within a bifurcating global nuclear environment characterised on one side by normative challenges to the established nuclear order and increasing demands for nuclear energy, and on the other with a resurgence in the political salience of nuclear weapons. Taken together, this suggests that we are arguably on the cusp of a new “nuclear age” where we will need to rethink the rules of the nuclear game and how we prevent nuclear use.
Explaining the failure of internationally-supported defence and security reforms in Sahelian states
In response to the crisis in the Sahel, myriad programmes have been set up with the aim of improving the performance of the defence and security forces in the region. These programmes are often run or supported by international partners. Yet, as the security situation in the region worsens, questions have been raised about whether these programmes are relevant and effective. In this article, we will argue that most of the programmes designed to build the capacities of, restructure or reform the armed forces in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have failed to grasp that these security systems function on a fundamentally hybrid basis, with a combination of – and often a clash between – legal and rational approaches, on the one hand, and informal dynamics, on the other, and that this can often hinder implementation of reforms. This article is part of the NUPI led JIGOV project.
Tshisekedi hopeful that the Luanda summit will lead to a de-escalation of violence
Following the talks in Luanda, Democratic Republic of Congo's President Felix Tshisekedi expressed hope that the summit would lead to a de-escalation of violence, between his country and Rwanda. Preventive Terrorism Consultant and President of the Africa Security Forum Temitope Olodo, and Senior Researcher at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, Dr Andrew E. Yaw Tchie, weigh in on the development.
Russkii as the New Rossiiskii? Nation-Building in Russia After 1991
Russia’s post-1991 nation-building project has been torn between competing interpretations of national identity. Whereas the other former Soviet republics opted for nation-building centered on the titular nation, Russia’s approach to national identity was framed by the fact that the RSFSR had been defined not as a designated national homeland but as a multi-ethnic federation. This, coupled with Russia’s definition as the legal successor of the Soviet Union, suggesting continuity and a history of uninterrupted statehood, has enabled a range of rivaling understandings of how to define the “nation.” Focusing on top-down official nation-building, this article examines how, against a backdrop of shifting political contexts, structural constraints, and popular attitudes, the Kremlin has gradually revised its understanding of what constitutes the “Russian nation.” Four models for post-Soviet Russian nation-building are identified – the ethnic, the multi-national, the civic, and the imperial. Over time, the correlation of forces among these has shifted. The article concludes that, despite some claims of an ethno-nationalist turn after 2014, the Kremlin still employs nationalism instrumentally: National identity has undoubtedly become more russkii-centered, but, at the same time, the Kremlin keeps the definition of “Russianness” intentionally vague, blurring the boundaries between “nation” and “civilization.”