Utenriks- og sikkerhetspolitiske holdninger i valgåret 2025
Verden er i rask endring og de siste månedenes nyhetsbilde har vært særlig preget av frykt, usikkerhet og konflikt. Russlands angrepskrig mot Ukraina føres fremdeles med stor styrke og Norge har i 2025 økt støtten til Ukraina betraktelig. Israels krig mot Hamas fortsetter og fikk våren 2025 en ny dimensjon da landet også angrep Iran. Norge har overfor Israel vært et av de mest åpent kritiske landene i Europa. Gjennom vinteren har Norges viktigste allierte, USA, sådd stor tvil og skapt usikkerhet knyttet til samholdet i det transatlantiske sikkerhetsfellesskapet. I tillegg har Donald Trump satt i gang et handelspolitisk tollkappløp som stadig er en kime til bekymring i Norge, Europa, og verden ellers. Mot dette bakteppet, og gitt at det gjennomføres stortingsvalg den 8. september i år, er det igjen tid for å ta tempen på de utenrikspolitiske holdningene i Norge. Derfor har NUPI gjennomført en opinionsundersøkelse der befolkningen har fått ta stilling til en rekke saker som preger internasjonal politikk. Vi kalte rapporten fra 2024 for «status-quo folket i en internasjonal brytningstid» fordi tross de store endringene i verdenspolitikken, var det lite endring å spore i den norske befolkningens utenrikspolitiske holdninger. Det inntrykket står seg også i denne rapporten, men med ett stort unntak: det er en betydelig endring i nordmenns holdning til samarbeidet med USA. Før valget i 2021 og sist i 2024-undersøkelsen mente opp mot halvparten av befolkningen at Norge burde samarbeide mer med USA mens omtrent en fjerdedel ønsket at Norge burde samarbeide mindre med USA. Dette forholdet har nå blitt snudd på hodet: kun 25 % ønsker mer samarbeid med USA, mens 42 % av befolkningen mener at Norge burde samarbeide mindre med USA. Den endrede holdningen til samarbeid med USA ser vi også spor av i andre deler av materialet, befolkningen virker generelt mer skeptisk til å følge USA-ledet politikk. I denne undersøkelsen har vi også inkludert to nye spørsmål for å måle om det er et stemningsskifte på gang i velgernes syn på utenrikspolitikken. I podkaster og på voksende alternative plattformer har det blitt hevdet at den såkalte konsensusen i norsk utenrikspolitikk står for fall fordi befolkningen er i utakt med myndighetene. Våre funn indikerer ikke noe slik stemningsskifte. De politiske skillelinjene i nordmenns syn på utenrikspolitikken er kjente, og det er ingen indikasjoner på grunnleggende konflikt eller mistillit knyttet til Norges utenriks- og sikkerhetspolitikk. De holdningene og holdningsendringene vi ser er som forventet ut fra tidligere NUPI-undersøkelser og opinionsundersøkelser ellers.
What can a National Action Plan on Women, Peace and Security do for Colombia?
Colombia launched its first 1325 NAP in November 2024, after a participatory process involving more than 1,500 women from different backgrounds across the country. Colombian women’s organizations are divided on the usefulness of the NAP: Some argue it can dilute attention from the 2016 peace agreement. Others believe it can have a positive effect on the implementation of the gender provisions of the agreement, which is lagging. The political context of increasing levels of conflict, failing peace negotiations and upcoming elections poses further challenges to the implementation of the 1325 NAP. The international community can support the implementation of the 1325 NAP through coordination-support, monitoring, awareness raising, and with technical expertise. This policy brief outlines the process of developing the NAP, the current political context in which the NAP is going to be implemented, and what challenges exist for its implementation.
Et splittet Vesten
Hva er det som skjer med verden for tida? Vi er usikre på om vi fortsatt kan stole på vår nærmeste allierte, og det vestlige fellesskapet er under...
Europe must take responsibility in Ukraine
US efforts to mediate negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have stalled. Russia has reiterated its unrealistic demands and rejected the ceasefire proposed by Ukraine and the United States. With Donald Trump unwilling to exert pressure on Moscow, the process has effectively collapsed. Europe must now assume a leadership role in shaping a coherent strategy to counter Russian expansionism. This strategy must ensure not only that Ukraine does not lose the war, but that it succeeds in defending the security, political stability, and future development of the entire European continent. Ukraine cannot be expected to shoulder this burden alone – a shared destiny binds Europe and Ukraine together.
Hybrid Frontlines: Russian Threats and the Future of Maritime Infrastructure in the Black Sea and the North Sea
This study analyzes the risks facing critical maritime infrastructure in two regions essential to European energy security: the Black Sea and the North Sea. The study highlights how the Russian Federation employs hybrid tactics — ranging from sabotage and cyberattacks to influence operations — to advance its geopolitical interests, undermining the stability and security of undersea energy and communication infrastructure. This comparative research examines the responses of Romania and Norway — two NATO member states on the frontlines of this strategic competition — and offers concrete policy recommendations for strengthening the resilience of critical maritime infrastructure. The study is part of the Strategic Initiative for Defending Critical Maritime Infrastructure (SIDMI) project conducted jointly by the New Strategy Center and Norwegian Institute of International Affairs.
Securing the Frontlines: Experimentalist Governance for Critical Maritime Infrastructure in the Black Sea and North Sea
The proliferation of hybrid threats challenges both national security and the institutional foundations of governance. Nowhere is this tension more acute than in the maritime domain, where critical infrastructure such as undersea cables, offshore energy platforms, and subsea pipelines have become both economic lifelines and geopolitical fault lines. These infrastructures are increasingly exposed to hybrid operations designed to exploit legal ambiguity, attribution challenges, and the seams between civil, military, and private actors. Traditional security governance models premised on clear jurisdictional boundaries, centralized command structures, and rigid doctrinal templates, struggle to account for weaponized ambiguity and threats operating below thresholds of open conflicts. As sub-threshold threats continue to evolve and be refined, they reveal deep structural limitations in existing institutional responses, including sectoral silos, information-sharing deficits, and accountability systems illsuited for dynamic crisis environments. This paper explores the need for more adaptive governance frameworks capable of managing the uncertainty, complexity, and cross-sectoral interdependence that define today’s hybrid threat landscape. Specifically, it examines how experimentalist governance (EG) offers a promising architecture for coordinating the defense of critical maritime infrastructure (CMI) in the face of hybrid aggression. The paper analyzes two distinct cases: Norway, with its mature institutional capacity, dense subsea infrastructure, and strong integration with NATO and EU partners; and Romania, situated at the Black Sea frontier, where emerging offshore energy projects intersect with a fluid and contested security environment.
The World According to Military Targeting
A revealing account of the prevalence—and alarming ubiquity—of military targeting, and how it has become a self-propelling worldview driven by dominance, violence, and power. The World According to Military Targeting engages directly with our grave world condition, asking how we ended up in a “closed world” made for military targeting by military targeting. In this book, NUPI researcher Erik Reichborn-Kjennerud explores how the operational logics and seductive forces of targeting produce a world in which the only ways to think about politics and security is through military supremacy, endless war, and global domination, with serious implications for social and political life. Offering a critical investigation of military targeting through the lenses of its historical formation, current operations, and future implications, the author presents an innovative investigation into targeting’s radical knowledge production, how it abstracts and brings into being new worlds, and the violence and destructive effects it generates. Through an interdisciplinary lens, the book draws attention to military doctrine and methodologies; statistical thought and practice; the mathematical and computational techniques of data production, processing, and modeling; and the so-called machine-learning algorithms and AI of today. The resulting narrative provides novel insights into how imagining the world, producing the world, and operationalizing the world are always wrapped up in each other and profoundly embedded in sociotechnical systems.
Ukraine’s secret weapon: Civil society at war
Come Back Alive and other volunteer organisations is an underappreciated, but important factor in Ukraine's fight against Russia. They are a vital...
Hvem skal bestemme over internett?
Hvordan havnet internett – en gang et fritt og grenseløst rom – i kryssilden mellom stormakter, sensur og geopolitikk? Hvem er det egentlig som ha...