Democratic backsliding, illiberal regimes and international cooperation under pressure
The international system faces its gravest crisis in decades. As global democracy retreats, authoritarian regimes actively challenge established i...
Book launch: America’s Middle East
NUPI invites you to a book launch with Marc Lynch and his new book America’s Middle East: The Ruination of a Region.
Skyggekrigen i lufta: Droner over Europa
22. september blinker det i grønt mot den svarte nattehimmelen over Kastrup lufthavn. Ikke akkurat et sjeldent syn på en flyplass. Det er bare det...
UK: Leading politically but militarily questionable
In the Multinational Force Ukraine series of policy briefs leading experts from allied countries assess key factors for participation in the Multinational Force Ukraine. This includes the political willingness of allies to deploy troops—on the ground, in the air, or at sea—to establish a military presence in or around Ukraine. They also examine the conditions for such deployments to occur (before, during, or after peace negotiations), the roles these forces would be expected to perform (defensive or offensive), the red lines imposed by national governments, and the specific capabilities each country could realistically contribute. This brief analyses the UK.
Italy: Transatlantic Loyalty First
In the Multinational Force Ukraine series of policy briefs leading experts from allied countries assess key factors for participation in the Multinational Force Ukraine. This includes the political willingness of allies to deploy troops—on the ground, in the air, or at sea—to establish a military presence in or around Ukraine. They also examine the conditions for such deployments to occur (before, during, or after peace negotiations), the roles these forces would be expected to perform (defensive or offensive), the red lines imposed by national governments, and the specific capabilities each country could realistically contribute. This brief analyses Italy.
To scenarier for krigen i Ukraina: Hva betyr de for Europa – og hva vil det koste?
Russlands ulovlige angrepskrig i Ukraina har pågått siden 2014, og har ført til store menneskelige og økonomiske tap. Denne studien undersøker de materielle og økonomiske kostnadene for Europa og Norge dersom Russland vinner fram med sin krigføring, versus en situasjon hvor Ukraina igjen bringes på offensiven og tvinger Russland til fredsslutning. Vi tror ikke på noe gjennombrudd for president Trumps forsøk på forhandlinger og en diplomatisk løsning på krigen i Ukraina. Russland har ikke vist reell vilje til kompromiss, og fremsetter fortsatt sine maksimumskrav, som i praksis betyr ukrainsk underkastelse. Krigen vil derfor trolig fortsette som en utmattelseskrig, der de to landenes økonomiske utvikling, og utviklingen ved fronten, vil avgjøre utfallet. Denne rapporten skisserer to mulige scenarier for den videre utvikling i krigen, hvordan de kan bli realisert, og hvilke konsekvenser de kan ha for europeisk sikkerhet og forsvarsbehov. Rapporten sikter mot å illustrere for norske beslutningstakere hvilke grunnleggende økonomiske og sikkerhetspolitiske valg den russiske angrepskrigen i Ukraina utløser, og hvordan ulike utfall i krigen kan påvirke våre egne sikkerhetsbehov og forsvarsutgifter. Situasjonen stiller Europa overfor krav til resolutt handling. Hovedspørsmålene vi stiller i rapporten er hva som skal til for at Russland eller Ukraina seirer militært: Hva koster det Europa og allierte i økt forsvarsinnsats dersom Russland seirer eller lykkes å nøytralisere Ukraina militært og politisk (Scenario 1), og hvilken kostnad det har å gjøre Ukraina i stand til å motstå russiske angrep og gjenvinne muligheten til begrensede motoffensiver (Scenario 2). Rapporten er skrevet av ledende eksperter innen sikkerhetspolitikk, militær doktrine og økonomi. Forfatternes tilknyttede institusjoner er ikke ansvarlige for innholdet, det er forfatterne selv som er ansvarlige for analysen og konklusjonene i rapporten.
Denmark: High on will, low on military capabilities
In the Multinational Force Ukraine series of policy briefs leading experts from allied countries assess key factors for participation in the Multinational Force Ukraine. This includes the political willingness of allies to deploy troops—on the ground, in the air, or at sea—to establish a military presence in or around Ukraine. They also examine the conditions for such deployments to occur (before, during, or after peace negotiations), the roles these forces would be expected to perform (defensive or offensive), the red lines imposed by national governments, and the specific capabilities each country could realistically contribute. This brief analyses Denmark.
Belgium: Committed in Principle, Constrained in Practice
In the Multinational Force Ukraine series of policy briefs leading experts from allied countries assess key factors for participation in the Multinational Force Ukraine. This includes the political willingness of allies to deploy troops—on the ground, in the air, or at sea—to establish a military presence in or around Ukraine. They also examine the conditions for such deployments to occur (before, during, or after peace negotiations), the roles these forces would be expected to perform (defensive or offensive), the red lines imposed by national governments, and the specific capabilities each country could realistically contribute. This brief analyses Belgium.
Et samordnet forsvar: Standardisering som nøkkelen til interoperabilitet i NATO, EU og Norge
This policy brief builds on findings from research on NATO–EU coordination in defense standardization and gives an overview of key actors and their roles. The original study shows how interoperability and standardization are increasingly used as strategic instruments in Brussels, reflecting their growing political relevance beyond purely technical domains. At the same time, Norway face challenges in keeping pace with developments, partly due to limited resources and participation. Norway must therefore strengthen both its national capacity and international presence, not only to safeguard operational and technological interests, but also to ensure influence in shaping the standards and frameworks that will define future defense cooperation. • Anchor standardization efforts: Build competence and establish a national framework that clarifies responsibilities and priorities to ensure implementation in line with capability targets. • Strengthen Norway’s contribution in NATO: Invest in sufficient personnel, increase participation in working groups, and support the revitalization of the standardization committee through appropriate representation. • Position Norway as a learning arena: Use NATO exercises to develop interoperability, provide venues for technology development, and prioritize Smart Standards to enable rapid technological adaptation. • Connect Norwegian industry and research more closely to NATO- and EU-based opportunities and partnerships.