Climate, peace and security in stabilization contexts in the Sahel
The Sahel region faces a deepening crisis from conflict, insecurity and the increasingly pronounced effects of climate change and environmental degradation. Three countries in the Sahel, Chad, Niger and Mali, rank among the seven most vulnerable countries to climate change. The region is very susceptible to recurrent droughts, land, biodiversity degradation, and erratic rainfall patterns, the compounded effects of which have propelled a severe degradation of agriculture, rangelands, and water resources, exacerbated food and water insecurity and driven displacements. Climate-related challenges intertwine with a complex socio-political security situation and political economy marked by conflicts, crises, violent extremism, terrorism, transnational organized crime and clashes over natural resources. Climate impacts and the related security risks are crucial in understanding the complex multidimensional crisis in the Sahel and offer an important lens for the analysis of the root causes of insecurities. This document summarizes the proceedings of the Regional Experts Workshop - La Somone, Senegal, March 2024 and High-level Partnerships Forum New York, USA, April 2024, which were convened in partnership with the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC), Liptako-Gourma Authority (LGA), African Union Commission (AUC), Climate commission for the Sahel Region (CCRS), the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI), UNOCA and UNOWAS via the Climate Security Mechanism (CSM). Both featured technical and high-level segments, bringing together over 250 stakeholders through a combination of in-person and hybrid sessions to understand how climate, peace and security approaches can complement ongoing stabilization efforts in the Sahel. Sincere thanks are extended to H.E. Abdou Abarry, Zinurine Abiodu Alghali, Chika Charles Aniekwe, H.E. Hawa Aw, H.E. Issifi Boureima, Blerta Cela, Tendai Kasinganeti, H.E. Mamman Nuhu, Andrew E. Yaw Tchie, Elvis Tangem, and their teams for their contributions to the proceedings. The communiqué and outcome report were prepared under the overall direction and supervision of Njoya Tikum, Director of UNDP Sub-Regional Hub for West Africa and the Sahel, and Catherine Wong, Team Leader, Climate and Security Risk, by Serena Arcone, with contributions from Eri Yamasumi, Sierge Ndjekouneyom, Pascal Yaka, Mabaye Dia, Galiné Yanon and with thanks to Pierre Bengono, Anab Grand and Lieneh Modalal for their support throughout the process.
How Lebanon’s security sector works amidst state collapse
This paper examines how hybrid security orders in Lebanon were renegotiated during shocks, specifically the state collapse from 2019 to 2023 and the regional war in 2023–2024. It employs the framework of Areas of Limited Statehood to analyse the coexistence of formal and informal governance amid the Lebanese state’s challenges. The study contributes to the understanding of governance by focusing on ‘state effects’ – the tangible practices that emerge in such contexts. The analysis reveals that Lebanon’s hybrid security system employed flexible, bottom-up strategies to cope with the economic collapse, such as relying on international security assistance, circumventing regulations, downsizing activities and rent seeking. However, increased corruption risks undermining the stability these solutions initially provided. Additionally, the paper discusses the Lebanese army’s expanded role in the aftermath of the recent conflict with Israel, highlighting its challenges in enforcing UN Security Council Resolution 1701 while maintaining internal cohesion amid rising discontent among Hizbullah supporters.
Reacting to a geopolitical setback: NATO expansion in Sweden and Finland through the lens of Russian geopolitical culture
The accession of Sweden and Finland to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is typically seen as a serious geopolitical setback for Russia, the opposite of its goals to limit the alliance’s spread eastwards. In contrast to Moscow’s stances on Ukraine and Georgia, however, its reaction to NATO’s Nordic expansion is more ambiguous. This article uses the framework of critical geopolitics to analyse several layers of Russia’s discursive reaction: practical, formal, and popular. This study finds that much of the popular geopolitics continues pre-2022 trends, presenting a securitised and nationalistic construction of NATO as a threatening ‘Other’. On the other hand, more moderate and pragmatic assessments in formal geopolitics balance against bellicosity and highlight the agency of the Nordic states, suggesting Russia may return to peaceful cooperation. In practical geopolitics, there is a gap between discourse and practice. Alongside more negative official discourse on NATO Nordic expansion, there was also reduced Russian military activity and an avoidance of provocative steps. These two faces – realism and pragmatism as opposed to securitised and nationalistic threat deterrence – reflect the structure of Russian geopolitical culture when it is applied to the North and Nordic NATO expansion.
Reacting to a geopolitical setback: NATO expansion in Sweden and Finland through the lens of Russian geopolitical culture”
The accession of Sweden and Finland to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is typically seen as a serious geopolitical setback for Russia, the opposite of its goals to limit the alliance’s spread eastwards. In contrast to Moscow’s stances on Ukraine and Georgia, however, its reaction to NATO’s Nordic expansion is more ambiguous. This article uses the framework of critical geopolitics to analyse several layers of Russia’s discursive reaction: practical, formal, and popular. This study finds that much of the popular geopolitics continues pre-2022 trends, presenting a securitised and nationalistic construction of NATO as a threatening ‘Other’. On the other hand, more moderate and pragmatic assessments in formal geopolitics balance against bellicosity and highlight the agency of the Nordic states, suggesting Russia may return to peaceful cooperation. In practical geopolitics, there is a gap between discourse and practice. Alongside more negative official discourse on NATO Nordic expansion, there was also reduced Russian military activity and an avoidance of provocative steps. These two faces – realism and pragmatism as opposed to securitised and nationalistic threat deterrence – reflect the structure of Russian geopolitical culture when it is applied to the North and Nordic NATO expansion.
Breakfast seminar: Russia and global nuclear risks: Weapons, civilian facilities, and proliferation
How can open and transparent scientific analysis inform policy debates on the challenges nuclear risks bring?
Erik Skare
Erik Skare (PhD) is a senior researcher and historian based at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI). He specializes on Palestin...
The Role of Ad Hoc Security Initiatives and Enterprise Security Arrangements in the Protection of Civilians in Africa
African-led ad hoc security initiatives (ASIs) and enterprise security arrangements (ESAs) provide flexible, rapid responses to complex threats but remain heavily militarized, weakly integrated into AU frameworks, and poorly aligned with protection of civilians (POC) standards. Their focus on counterinsurgency, reliance on external support, and lack of civilian components often undermine community trust and broader peace processes. While some positive practices have emerged—such as civil-military cooperation in the MNJTF and Rwanda’s outreach in Mozambique—these remain inconsistent. Without systematic integration of AU POC policies, civilian structures, and political strategies, ASIs and ESAs will struggle to deliver sustainable protection outcomes.
Changing transatlantic security relations: Implications for Europe and Norway (TransatDefence)
Transatlantic relations are the cornerstone of Norway’s security and defence. Against the backdrop of the United States (US)’ ‘pivot to Asia,’ the increasing polarization of US foreign...