"The Russian Understanding of War: Blurring the Lines between War and Peace"
The Russian Understanding of War: Blurring the Lines between War and Peace Julie Wilhelmsen (NUPI, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs) reviews The Russian Understanding of War: Blurring the Lines between War and Peace by Oscar Jonsson.
Political violence and polarization in France: the threat, the discourse and the response
Since 2015, more than 250 civilians have been killed in jihadist attacks in France. Is France particularly prone to jihadist violence, and how does terrorism affect French society and French politics?
The Fragility Dilemma and Divergent Security Complexes in the Sahel
Despite an exponential increase in international resources devoted to the Sahel, the situation on the ground continues to deteriorate. This is largely due to the so-called “fragility dilemma”, faced by fragile states that are in critical need of external assistance, but have limited absorption capacity and are governed by sitting regimes that dictate the terms and upon which external actors must rely. This dilemma has contributed to an increasing divergence between a state-centric regional and a people-centric transnational security complex. In particular, a heavy-handed approach to violent extremism and external policies aimed at curbing “irregular” migration have had a number of unintended consequences, disrupting livelihoods and further exacerbating instability in the Sahelian states.
Hacking democracy: managing influence campaigns and disinformation in the digital age
How are states responding to the threat of using digital technologies to subvert democratic processes? Protecting political and democratic processes from interference via digital technologies is a new and complicated security threat. In recent years the issue has been most prominent in terms of election security, yet the widespread usage of digital technologies allows for the subversion of democratic processes in multifaceted ways. From disrupting the political discourse with false information to inflaming and stoking political divisions digital technologies allows for a variety of ways for malicious actors to target democracies. This article compares different state experiences with interference in sovereign and contested political decisions. More specifically the article compares the Norwegian approach and experience in managing these challenges with those of Finland and the UK. Mapping both how the problem is understood, and the role of previous experiences in shaping public policy.
NATO facing challenges from the Arctic to the Black Sea Region
Which challenges do NATO face on its Eastern flanks in the years to come? LSE IDEAS, the New Strategy Center Bucharest, and NUPI invite you to a one day conference.
The Dangers of Disconnection: Oscillations in Political Violence on Lake Chad
Narrations on fragility and resilience in the Sahel paint a picture about the region’s inherent ungovernability that lead to consider an endless state- and peace-building process as the most feasible governance solution. Everyday practices of violent entrepreneurship, coalescing with inter-community and land-tenure conflicts, now inform social relations and are transforming moral economies around Lake Chad. While competition over territory suitable for farming, grazing and fishing has intensified, dispute-settlement practices organised by community-level authorities have proven ineffective and lacking the necessary means to respond to the encroachment of a wide range of interests claimed by increasingly powerful actors. Meanwhile, communities organised in self-defence militias are undergoing a process of progressive militarisation that tends to normalise violence and legitimise extra-judicial vigilante justice, further empowering capital-endowed arms suppliers gravitating in the jihadi galaxy, such as the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP).
The Nuclear Umbrella Revisited
The NPT is in miserable shape, betrayed on the disarmament dimension, stuck in the Middle East and mostly irrelevant to the Asian nuclear armed states, but it has proven resilient and lingers on. It will soon be accompanied by the TPNW, which is about to enter into force. Hopefully, the wrangling between the respective treaty supporters will calm down and enable a new consensus on the normative basis for non-proliferation and disarmament consisting of a combination of both treaties. That will not happen overnight, however. There is a long way from mutual recriminations to passive co-existence to bridge-building to exploitation of synergies – if it ever happens. The dilemma facing the umbrella states is a hard one. On the one hand, it is in their interest not to be defended with nuclear weapons. On the other hand, they deem it important to remain members of NATO. These propositions may or may not be compatible. Some believe they are, emphasising that the Alliance is a conglomerate of nuclear and non-nuclear states; of states that are hosting nuclear weapons and others which do not; and that France left the military part of NATO but remained part of the political cooperation without rocking the rest. Others claim they are not and note that in the face of big power pressure, small states tend to balk at running the risks involved – especially if they cannot agree to act together. Business as usual is the problem, not the solution. In view of current trends in international security affairs there can be little disagreement about that. If so, much is achieved, because it encourages reflection and re-examination of established positions. If not, the strength of argument will remain posited against the power of inertia.
Naming and shaming of cyber intruders – does it work?
Last month Norwegian authorities made the rather unusual decision to call out - to attribute - Russia for being behind a cyber operation towards the Norwegian parliament. NUPI’s Cybersecurity Centre has the pleasure to invite to a webinar with Professor Madeline Carr. She will provide an overview of why attribution in cyberspace is difficult, the challenges of not being able to attribute - and different options on how to deal with this issue.
Missiles, Vessels and Active Defence What Potential Threat Do the Russian Armed Forces Represent?
In 2019, Russia’s Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, presented a ‘strategy of active defence’, a possible prelude to the forthcoming Russian military doctrine. This article examines this strategy with particular emphasis on the role of precision-guided missiles, tactical nuclear weapons and the role of the navy. It provides insights on the shape of new Russian military doctrine and the military threat Russia might represent to the West. Maren Garberg Bredesen and Karsten Friis conclude that the active defence concept may imply a lowering of the use-of-force threshold. Russia’s continued build-up of tactical nuclear weapons integrated into the conventional forces reinforces this concern.