Global economy

Guns, Butter and Karl Polanyi: Securing Europe in the post-neoliberal world

Trump 2.0 has contested and sought to upturn the so-called liberal international order. Within Europe this entailed leveraging geoeconomic dependence to force NATO members to publicly commit to spending 5% of GDP on defence and the EU into an asymmetrical trade deal. Europe is thus undergoing a guns versus butter debate that threatens the social contract and the solvency of Europe. Taking stock of the scramble across Europe to keep NATO keeping on - and drawing upon research that explores the transnational and economic roots of the rise of the far right - this essay argues that to effectively respond to Trump 2.0 and stem tide of anti-democratic currents will require rethinking contemporary EU economic doxa – imperfectly captured by the term neoliberalism. Such a reckoning should involve a systematic reconsideration of how far and how deep markets and market logics should be institutionalised within European societies. In short, Europe should seek to proactively shape the emerging post-neoliberal trend to seek to ensure that what comes next retains the existing order’s stated commitments to democracy, tolerance, and human dignity. Conversely, failure to rethink Europe’s commitment to neoliberalism risks strengthening those that are convinced the status quo embodies little worth salvaging.

Populism and the Future of Transatlantic Relations: Challenges and Policy Options

This report assesses how changes in US foreign policy under a right-wing populist president affect the EU–US relationship and offers concrete policy recommendations on pressing issues. Focusing on the links between foreign-policy shifts, domestic polarization and antiliberal democratic trends, the report examines how domestic dynamics may constitute the most severe long-term challenge to transatlantic cooperation. It also evaluates specific policy challenges and opportunities for strengthening that cooperation in the years ahead. By exploring developments in US foreign policies and how these are linked to domestic polarization and antiliberal democratic ideas, chapters in this report shed light on how this domestic factor poses a severe challenge to the transatlantic relationship. Authors focus on how the rise of right-wing populism – with an increasing portion of the population resisting globalization, international institutions, free trade and even democratic values on both sides of the Atlantic affects the transatlantic relationship. Within each section of the report, a background chapter introduces the overarching debate, followed by three case studies focusing on observed changes, policy implications and recommendations for EU responses. The conclusion sums up key findings and provides recommendations for how the EU should respond to changing transatlantic relations.

Europe's Selective Blindness on Gas - US LNG and the Limits of Supply Diversification

The European Union (EU) aims to diversify its gas and oil supplies and is determined to end its energy imports from Russia, whose revenues finance its war of aggression against Ukraine. Yet, despite the rhetorical commitment to diversification, new EU legislation paradoxically treats energy sourced from any single country other than Russia as fully diversified. This risks to obscure Europe’s rapidly growing dependence on US LNG imports. When Norway is considered ‘indigenous’ due to its close integration and political alignment as part of the European Economic Area, this trend becomes even clearer, with over 59% of LNG imports coming from the US in 2025. Such dependence exposes Europe to the risk of high costs, price volatility and geopolitical pressures. The principal pathway to strengthening the EU’s strategic autonomy in the energy sector is the accelerated transition to an efficient energy system based on indigenous renewables. As long as the EU remains reliant on large amounts of imported energy resources, mitigating the associated risks will require genuine supplier diversification embedded within a broader energy security strategy. Such a strategy must rest on a sound definition of diversification and reflect today’s geopolitical realities.

India in the Multilateral System: UN, Bretton Woods and Club Governance