Book launch: America’s Middle East
NUPI invites you to a book launch with Marc Lynch and his new book America’s Middle East: The Ruination of a Region.
Webinar: Europe’s Green Transition: Norway’s Role, Promises and Challenges
This webinar brings together experts and policymakers to explore Norway’s evolving partnership with the EU in shaping a sustainable future.
To scenarier for krigen i Ukraina: Hva betyr de for Europa – og hva vil det koste?
Russlands ulovlige angrepskrig i Ukraina har pågått siden 2014, og har ført til store menneskelige og økonomiske tap. Denne studien undersøker de materielle og økonomiske kostnadene for Europa og Norge dersom Russland vinner fram med sin krigføring, versus en situasjon hvor Ukraina igjen bringes på offensiven og tvinger Russland til fredsslutning. Vi tror ikke på noe gjennombrudd for president Trumps forsøk på forhandlinger og en diplomatisk løsning på krigen i Ukraina. Russland har ikke vist reell vilje til kompromiss, og fremsetter fortsatt sine maksimumskrav, som i praksis betyr ukrainsk underkastelse. Krigen vil derfor trolig fortsette som en utmattelseskrig, der de to landenes økonomiske utvikling, og utviklingen ved fronten, vil avgjøre utfallet. Denne rapporten skisserer to mulige scenarier for den videre utvikling i krigen, hvordan de kan bli realisert, og hvilke konsekvenser de kan ha for europeisk sikkerhet og forsvarsbehov. Rapporten sikter mot å illustrere for norske beslutningstakere hvilke grunnleggende økonomiske og sikkerhetspolitiske valg den russiske angrepskrigen i Ukraina utløser, og hvordan ulike utfall i krigen kan påvirke våre egne sikkerhetsbehov og forsvarsutgifter. Situasjonen stiller Europa overfor krav til resolutt handling. Hovedspørsmålene vi stiller i rapporten er hva som skal til for at Russland eller Ukraina seirer militært: Hva koster det Europa og allierte i økt forsvarsinnsats dersom Russland seirer eller lykkes å nøytralisere Ukraina militært og politisk (Scenario 1), og hvilken kostnad det har å gjøre Ukraina i stand til å motstå russiske angrep og gjenvinne muligheten til begrensede motoffensiver (Scenario 2). Rapporten er skrevet av ledende eksperter innen sikkerhetspolitikk, militær doktrine og økonomi. Forfatternes tilknyttede institusjoner er ikke ansvarlige for innholdet, det er forfatterne selv som er ansvarlige for analysen og konklusjonene i rapporten.
UN reform, budget cuts and gender backlash: What is at stake for Women, Peace and Security in peace operations?
This research paper explores possible risks and consequences of UN80 reform efforts and current financial contingency planning for the WPS agenda in peace operations. Based on interviews with member state representatives and UN staff working in headquarters and field missions, it finds that contingency planning to mitigate the liquidity crisis, and gender backlash within the UN system are having a detrimental impact on WPS programming in peace operations. Further, WPS programming is moving from being underfunded to defunded and deprioritised, leading to a loss of gender expertise in peacekeeping, and contributing to the shrinking of women’s civic spaces in post-conflict states. Finally, WPS expertise and resources must be protected during UN80 reforms and budget cuts.
Time and Compromise in UNCITRAL’s Working Group III
In multilateral negotiations, time has a tangible effect on the flow and conduct of deliberations. As negotiating deadlines approach, time becomes a tool of pressure, one used to induce compromise or force closure. In this blogpost, published with the European Journal of International Law, we explore how this time-compromise dynamic plays out in the ongoing negotiations to reform investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) in the UN’s trade law body.
Towards a Postliberal Global Order? The Crises of the Liberal West
This article is in Norwegian. The article discusses the weakened position of the liberal West in global governance, and the significance of Trump’s USA in this landscape. The first part of the article outlines three central ideological and geopolitical developments related to global order that run counter to the dominant dichotomies between the West and the non-West, democracies and autocracies. Although the world is changing, and the post-1989 form of liberal hegemony is in significant reverse, global politics will not become post-liberal any time soon. The second part discusses how the Western self-image as a unified liberal «us» has unraveled throughout the 2000s. First, Western states have systematically undermined some of the values and institutions they have claimed to represent. The gap between self-image and reality, in parallel with extensive outward moralization, has created a significant legitimacy crisis for the West. Second, the far right has become a central part of the Western political landscape. The new transatlantic community of values under Trump is not liberal, but radical right-wing. The tensions within the community of shared values will be there regardless of who’s in power in the USA. The conclusion is that it is no longer possible to talk about a unified Western liberal «us». Continuing to insist on it will only further strengthen the West’s internal and external tensions.
How Lebanon’s security sector works amidst state collapse
This paper examines how hybrid security orders in Lebanon were renegotiated during shocks, specifically the state collapse from 2019 to 2023 and the regional war in 2023–2024. It employs the framework of Areas of Limited Statehood to analyse the coexistence of formal and informal governance amid the Lebanese state’s challenges. The study contributes to the understanding of governance by focusing on ‘state effects’ – the tangible practices that emerge in such contexts. The analysis reveals that Lebanon’s hybrid security system employed flexible, bottom-up strategies to cope with the economic collapse, such as relying on international security assistance, circumventing regulations, downsizing activities and rent seeking. However, increased corruption risks undermining the stability these solutions initially provided. Additionally, the paper discusses the Lebanese army’s expanded role in the aftermath of the recent conflict with Israel, highlighting its challenges in enforcing UN Security Council Resolution 1701 while maintaining internal cohesion amid rising discontent among Hizbullah supporters.
Safeguarding the WPS Agenda across Africa amid a Changing Global Order
Over the past 25 years, the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda has gained increasing prominence at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). UNSC engagement has focused primarily on the protection of women and girls – rather than on prevention or effective participation. Further, implementation of the agenda has been inconsistent and uneven across mandates. More recently, geopolitical tensions, a rise in authoritarian politics and escalating anti-feminist sentiment have further undermined the WPS agenda – often subordinating it to domestic political dynamics. This policy brief examines the state of the WPS agenda against a backdrop of dwindling donor funding and shifting global priorities. It reflects on key achievements by local women’s networks across Africa and considers how gains may be sustained and the agenda advanced amid new political and financial constraints. It argues that promoting the WPS agenda in an increasingly volatile political order requires a multifaceted approach that addresses the challenges posed by global conflict, inequality and authoritarian resurgence. This includes strengthening existing frameworks, expanding the scope of the agenda to address a broader range of issues and ensuring that women’s voices are meaningfully included in decision-making related to peace and security.
Integrating ad hoc coalitions in international conflict management
While United Nations peacekeeping has been in decline since 2014, ad hoc coalitions have become prominent in international conflict management. We argue that these two trends have changed the field of international conflict management into what we call ‘conflict management à la carte’. Contemporary examples of ad hoc coalitions in international conflict management are the Multinational Joint Task Force, fighting the Boko Haram insurgency in the Lake Chad region, but also maritime missions such as the US-led Coalition Task Force Sentinel in the Gulf region and the Kenya-led Multinational Security Support mission in Haiti. After analysing the implications of this turn for international conflict management, we sketch out three types of differentiated ad hoc coalition integration in international conflict management and discuss examples. We then provide recommendations for how to synergize and integrate ad hoc coalitions with UN-led and regional organization-led initiatives, to enhance mission effectiveness and preserve a robust and legitimate toolbox of institutional responses for international conflict management. In conclusion, we argue that as the UN reorients itself towards becoming a service provider through adopting a modular approach, it should continue to invest in interorganizational cooperation on issues of logistics, financial and human rights accountability, including with ad hoc coalitions.