Democratic backsliding, illiberal regimes and international cooperation under pressure
The international system faces its gravest crisis in decades. As global democracy retreats, authoritarian regimes actively challenge established i...
Book launch: America’s Middle East
NUPI invites you to a book launch with Marc Lynch and his new book America’s Middle East: The Ruination of a Region.
Webinar: Europe’s Green Transition: Norway’s Role, Promises and Challenges
This webinar brings together experts and policymakers to explore Norway’s evolving partnership with the EU in shaping a sustainable future.
To scenarier for krigen i Ukraina: Hva betyr de for Europa – og hva vil det koste?
Russlands ulovlige angrepskrig i Ukraina har pågått siden 2014, og har ført til store menneskelige og økonomiske tap. Denne studien undersøker de materielle og økonomiske kostnadene for Europa og Norge dersom Russland vinner fram med sin krigføring, versus en situasjon hvor Ukraina igjen bringes på offensiven og tvinger Russland til fredsslutning. Vi tror ikke på noe gjennombrudd for president Trumps forsøk på forhandlinger og en diplomatisk løsning på krigen i Ukraina. Russland har ikke vist reell vilje til kompromiss, og fremsetter fortsatt sine maksimumskrav, som i praksis betyr ukrainsk underkastelse. Krigen vil derfor trolig fortsette som en utmattelseskrig, der de to landenes økonomiske utvikling, og utviklingen ved fronten, vil avgjøre utfallet. Denne rapporten skisserer to mulige scenarier for den videre utvikling i krigen, hvordan de kan bli realisert, og hvilke konsekvenser de kan ha for europeisk sikkerhet og forsvarsbehov. Rapporten sikter mot å illustrere for norske beslutningstakere hvilke grunnleggende økonomiske og sikkerhetspolitiske valg den russiske angrepskrigen i Ukraina utløser, og hvordan ulike utfall i krigen kan påvirke våre egne sikkerhetsbehov og forsvarsutgifter. Situasjonen stiller Europa overfor krav til resolutt handling. Hovedspørsmålene vi stiller i rapporten er hva som skal til for at Russland eller Ukraina seirer militært: Hva koster det Europa og allierte i økt forsvarsinnsats dersom Russland seirer eller lykkes å nøytralisere Ukraina militært og politisk (Scenario 1), og hvilken kostnad det har å gjøre Ukraina i stand til å motstå russiske angrep og gjenvinne muligheten til begrensede motoffensiver (Scenario 2). Rapporten er skrevet av ledende eksperter innen sikkerhetspolitikk, militær doktrine og økonomi. Forfatternes tilknyttede institusjoner er ikke ansvarlige for innholdet, det er forfatterne selv som er ansvarlige for analysen og konklusjonene i rapporten.
UN reform, budget cuts and gender backlash: What is at stake for Women, Peace and Security in peace operations?
This research paper explores possible risks and consequences of UN80 reform efforts and current financial contingency planning for the WPS agenda in peace operations. Based on interviews with member state representatives and UN staff working in headquarters and field missions, it finds that contingency planning to mitigate the liquidity crisis, and gender backlash within the UN system are having a detrimental impact on WPS programming in peace operations. Further, WPS programming is moving from being underfunded to defunded and deprioritised, leading to a loss of gender expertise in peacekeeping, and contributing to the shrinking of women’s civic spaces in post-conflict states. Finally, WPS expertise and resources must be protected during UN80 reforms and budget cuts.
Time and Compromise in UNCITRAL’s Working Group III
In multilateral negotiations, time has a tangible effect on the flow and conduct of deliberations. As negotiating deadlines approach, time becomes a tool of pressure, one used to induce compromise or force closure. In this blogpost, published with the European Journal of International Law, we explore how this time-compromise dynamic plays out in the ongoing negotiations to reform investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) in the UN’s trade law body.
Towards a Postliberal Global Order? The Crises of the Liberal West
This article is in Norwegian. The article discusses the weakened position of the liberal West in global governance, and the significance of Trump’s USA in this landscape. The first part of the article outlines three central ideological and geopolitical developments related to global order that run counter to the dominant dichotomies between the West and the non-West, democracies and autocracies. Although the world is changing, and the post-1989 form of liberal hegemony is in significant reverse, global politics will not become post-liberal any time soon. The second part discusses how the Western self-image as a unified liberal «us» has unraveled throughout the 2000s. First, Western states have systematically undermined some of the values and institutions they have claimed to represent. The gap between self-image and reality, in parallel with extensive outward moralization, has created a significant legitimacy crisis for the West. Second, the far right has become a central part of the Western political landscape. The new transatlantic community of values under Trump is not liberal, but radical right-wing. The tensions within the community of shared values will be there regardless of who’s in power in the USA. The conclusion is that it is no longer possible to talk about a unified Western liberal «us». Continuing to insist on it will only further strengthen the West’s internal and external tensions.