Researcher
Cedric H. de Coning
Contactinfo and files
Summary
Cedric de Coning is a Research Professor in the Research Group on Peace, Conflict and Development at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI).
His research focuses on how the United Nations and other multilateral institutions can more effectively sustain peace and security, with particular attention to mediation, peace operations and peacebuilding.
Drawing on complexity theory, he developed Adaptive Peace, a framework for sustaining peace and security amid the uncertainty of an increasingly turbulent global order. At NUPI he leads several international research projects on climate, peace and security, on artificial intelligence in peace and security, and on the effectiveness of peace operations.
He also contributes to the Training for Peace programme and the UN Peace and Stabilisation Operations project. He is a senior advisor to ACCORD and Editor-in-Chief of the African Journal on Conflict Resolution. A former South African diplomat and UN peacekeeper, he has served in various advisory roles with the African Union and the United Nations, including on the Secretary-General's Advisory Board for the UN Peacebuilding Fund.
Expertise
Education
2012 PhD, Applied Ethics, Department of Philosophy, University of Stellenbosch
2005 M.A., Conflict Management and Peace Studies, University of KwaZula-Natal
Work Experience
2020- Research Professor, NUPI
2012-2020 Senior Researcher, NUPI
2006-2012 Researcher, NUPI
2002- Senior Advisor (Consultant), ACCORD
2002 Training Officer, UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO)
2001-2002 Political Affairs Officer, Office of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG), UN Transitional Administration in East Timor (UNTAET)
2001 Civil Affairs Officer, Office of District Affairs, UN Transitional Administration in East Timor (UNTAET)
2000 Assistant Director: Programmes, ACCORD
1999-2000 Civil Affairs Officer, Bobonaro District UN Transitional Administration in East Timor (UNTAET)
1997-1999 Programme Manager: Peacekeeping, ACCORD
1988-1997 Assistant Director, Department of Foreign Affairs, Pretoria, South Africa
Aktivitet
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Clear all filtersClimate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Afghanistan
Afghanistan is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change: rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns and increasingly frequent extreme weather events. Currently, Afghanistan is experiencing its worst drought in 27 years, which, compounded with COVID-19 and the economic contraction that followed the takeover of the government by the Taliban in August 2021, has significantly increased livelihood and food insecurity and contributed to a growing humanitarian emergency. Climate change exacerbates the deteriorating conditions for agriculture-based livelihoods and food insecurity. Conflict and the effects of climate change have increased internal displacement and changed migration patterns. High levels of displacement accentuate food and livelihood insecurity and increase the vulnerability of marginalised groups, including women. The effects of climate change may heighten the risk of more frequent and intense local conflicts over land and water and increase tensions over transboundary resources. Conflict has eroded the resilience of communities and local authorities to adapt to climate change and to deal with the current humanitarian crisis. This creates opportunities for elites to manipulate and profit from land and water disputes, with elevated risks for marginalised groups.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: South Sudan
Unpredictable annual variations in extreme weather events, like flooding and droughts, affect agriculture-dependent communities and influence pastoralist mobility patterns and routes. Such changes may intensify the risk of tensions between herders and farmers, often in connection with land, grazing, water and communal affairs. Transhumance, including cross-border migration from Sudan through the Greater Upper Nile in particular, exacerbates the spread of veterinary diseases and fuels environmental degradation and competition over scarce resources. Women and girls continue to bear the brunt of the effects of climate change; female-headed households are especially vulnerable. Climate-related livestock losses compounded by pre-existing rivalries increase the risk of cattle raiding, which can trigger retaliation, communal conflict, displacement, deepening intercommunal rivalry and the formation of armed groups.
Climate, Peace and Security: Sudan
Sudan is severely exposed to climate change. As one of the world’s least developed countries, extreme weather, recurrent floods and droughts, and changing precipitation interact with other vulnerabilities – such as ecosystem degradation, unsustainable agricultural practices, natural resource scarcities and resource-based conflicts – limiting societal capacities to cope and adapt. The economic consequences of COVID-19, ongoing political instability (further aggravated by the October 2021 military coup), and rising inflation all weaken state and societal resilience, livelihoods and food security. ● Rising temperatures, rainfall variability, and droughts and floods negatively impact agriculture, livelihoods and food security. In particular, the adverse effects of climate change, combined with gender-based disparities in natural resource governance, accentuate the climate-related security risks for women and girls. ● High levels of displacement sharpen humanitarian needs and vulnerability to the effects of climate change; shifting migration patterns in response to changing resource availability may increase the risk of local conflicts in some areas. ● Various conflict dynamics and decades of political interference, local conflicts (interlinked with land and natural resources) and ongoing political instability have undermined traditional resource management systems and state governance. ● The legacies of natural resource mismanagement have increased the marginalisation of rural communities and accelerated land degradation, excacerbating local vulnerabilities that add to the human security risks associated with climate change.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Iraq
• Increasing temperatures, decreasing water availability and greater inter-annual variability in rainfall negatively affect agriculture, reduce household income and food availability, and exacerbate livelihood insecurity. Women and girls are disproportionately affected by the adverse effects of climate change, due to pre-existing gender norms and persisting inequalities. • Low agriculture yields and loss of livelihoods contribute to increased urban migration, with urban challenges including the risk of social unrest and protests in host cities. • Armed groups and militias leverage the economic hardships, further exacerbated by the compounding effects of climate change, for recruitment and support. Weak governance increases the opportunities for elite exploitation and corruption, which leads to further marginalization and exclusion that feed grievances and drive instability.
Adaptive Mediation and Conflict Resolution: Peace-Making in Colombia, Mozambique, the Philippines, and Syria
This open access book introduces adaptive mediation as an alternative approach that enables mediators to go beyond determined-design models of mediation. Adaptive mediation is grounded in complexity theory, and is specifically designed to cope with highly dynamic conflict situations characterized by uncertainty. It is a facilitated mediation process whereby the content of agreements emerges from the parties to the conflict themselves, informed by the context within which the conflict is situated. The book presents the core principles and practices of adaptive mediation with empirical evidence from Colombia, Mozambique, The Philippines, and Syria.
The UN in South Sudan 2022: Risks and opportunities in an uncertain peace process
The UN Security Council will in March this year renew the mandate of UNMISS marking the tenth renewal of the Mission’s mandate since it began in 2011.