Publications
Managing climate, peace and security risks in the Lake Chad Region
The policy brief summarises findings from a Rapid Evidence Assessment (REA), undertaken for the climate, peace and security risks in the Lake Chad region research project (CPS-Lake Chad). The publication is part of the project project 'Managing Climate, Peace and Security Risks in the Borderlands of the Lake Chad Region (CPS-Lake Chad)' which is funded by the Cross-Border Conflict Evidence, Policy and Trends (XCEPT) research programme. It brings together world-leading experts and local researchers to examine conflict-affected borderlands, how conflicts connect across borders, and the drivers of violent and peaceful behaviour.
India in South Asia: Quest for regional dominance in a multipolar world
This report analyses India’s role in South Asia at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty and domestic volatility across the region. As India’s economic and strategic weight grows, its immediate neighbourhood has become the most consequential arena in which the opportunities and constraints of its rise are revealed.
Morocco’s climate policy at a turning point under the EU CBAM
Morocco’s climate leadership is now tested by the European Union’s (EU) Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which shifts attention from ambition to verifiable industrial performance. Despite strong renewable efforts, the carbon intensity of electricity and gaps in monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) readiness expose exporters to rising compliance pressure. The next phase of CBAM will also affect small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), many of which lack reporting and decarbonization capacity. Morocco now faces a turning point where climate ambition must translate into systems that support export competitiveness. A focused set of reforms can strengthen energy access, data credibility, and institutional coordination for a CBAM-ready transition. - Improve access to low-carbon electricity and streamline self-generation - Accelerate development of an MRV system with clear institutional roles, publicly available emission factors and reliable carbon emissions accounting tools. - Support SMEs with targeted CBAM-readiness tools, training and finance. - Consider gradual domestic carbon pricing to reduce CBAM costs and fund industrial decarbonization.
Borders Ending Nowhere: The Geopolitical Imaginaries and Practices of Russia’s Spheres of Interest in Africa
Russia has been involved in Africa since Tsarist times, but its involvement has ebbed and flowed. Nonetheless, the idea of Africa as an open political landscape in which Russia could act as a great power has been relatively persistent, often in connection with the domestic resurfacing of civilisational discourses on Russian exceptionalism. Recently, there has been much concern in the West about the expansion of Russian projection in Africa, with some suggesting that Moscow is establishing a sphere of influence. Our analysis of Russia’s geopolitical imagination and its subsequent practices does not lead us to conclude that a deliberate attempt to establish a genuine sphere of influence is underway. Instead, we see an opportunistic endeavour to assert and shape a geographically continuous sphere of interest (Russian: sfera interesov), negotiating with local partners forms of collaboration that reflect and prompt change in the international system.
A Pathway to Security in the MENA: Integrating Subregional Electricity Markets
Despite being among the richest regions in energy, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is facing security and electricity crises. Grids are beset with technical challenges and gas dependence, and energy poverty is high amidst conflict. Integrated cross-border electricity markets can alleviate power shortages through trade. Yet MENA’s three subregional power markets are underutilized, trading 2% of electricity generated. This policy brief argues that governments must integrate each of the three MENA subregional grids into electricity markets, expanding to Iran and Türkiye. This is the most practical pathway and the first phase towards a MENA-wide integrated electricity market. States must undertake technical, institutional, and market reforms to transform MENA’s subregional grids into resilient, efficient and low-carbon integrated grids offering short-term stability and long-term security.
Meaning-Making in Times of Trouble: COVID-19 Conspiracies on Russian Telegram
Many Russians harbor distrust toward government institutions and official information. Amid the uncertainties of the COVID-19 pandemic, they turned to social media for advice. This article analyzes how the Russian-language Telegram channel “COVID Resistance” contributed to the process of making sense of the situation. Based on a close reading of selected posts, we reconstruct four conspiratorial narratives promoted by this channel: “toxic vaccines,” “fascistoid restrictions,” “coronavirus as a hoax,” and “besieged nation.” We find that these narratives, despite often contradicting each other, served as a form of meaning-making, offering explanations that helped ordinary people navigate the crisis.
All on the Same Page? Comparing European Populist Radical Right Governments’ Foreign Policy towards China
Do European populist radical right (EPRR) governments converge in their engagement with China? If not, what explains their divergence? While prior research has explored populist foreign policy, little attention has been paid to their China strategies or the factors shaping them once EPRR parties gain power. This study compares the differing approaches of three EPRR governments—Brothers of Italy, Law and Justice, and Fidesz—and argues that the variation stems from two factors: the intensity of transnational business interests sustaining economic interdependence with China, and the degree of foreign policy executive centralization. By empirically analyzing these cases, the paper contributes to debates on populist foreign policy and their relations with Beijing. It demonstrates that even governments sharing similar thick ideologies may diverge in practice, as institutional and contextual constraints shape the extent to which populist leaders can act on their partisan interests.
Three Books on Aleksei Navalny
(This essay is in Norwegian): In the wake of Alexei Navalny’s death in February 2024, several books have been published about the opposition leader. This essay will address three of these: "Patriot" (2024), written by Navalny himself, "Aleksej Navalnyj. Å drepe en fremtid (2024)" [Alexei Navalny. Killing a Future], written by John Færseth, and "Murder in the Gulag. The Life and Death of Alexei Navalny" (2024), written by John Sweeney. These are not academic books, and they are not written for an academic audience. How do these books contribute to the study of Russia and international relations? "Patriot" sheds light on two important themes: ideas one can be punished for in today’s authoritarian Russia and what this punishment can, in the worst case, entail. The books about Navalny written by Færseth and Sweeney are interesting examples of how Western actors articulate Russia. Sweeney in particular, draws on a black/white, villain/hero perspective and thus contributes to cementing the idea of Russia as the West’s ‘other’.
The power of standards in European Union digital governance
• This policy brief situates standardisation projects in the EU within global regulatory power, highlighting implications for markets, innovation, and global governance. • Standards for the production and distribution of digital products in the EU are technopolitical instruments that shape authority, legitimacy, and power, rather than neutral administrative tools for ensuring security and quality. • The EU’s regulatory power extends beyond European borders, intensifying debates about regulatory overreach, where public-interest regulation is often framed as protectionist and consequently rejected or simply ignored by major tech companies. • Standards should remain contestable, certification regimes subject to robust oversight, and expertise broadened beyond narrow technocratic communities.
Reconciling Indonesia’s Climate Ambition: Who Gets to Shape the Policymaking Process?
Indonesia entered COP30 in Belém, Brazil, with more ambitious pledges, but the governance that produces those commitments has changed little. Successive Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) show greater ambition on paper yet remain shaped by a narrow technocratic circle, limited public participation, and growth-first economic assumptions. This expert-centered approach reveals a persistent tension between development priorities and the Paris Agreement’s goals. To strengthen credibility, ambition, and delivery before the next pledge-and-review cycle, Indonesia should: • Expand NDC involvement beyond the existing expert group. • Build a climate action coalition to coordinate national and local efforts. • Invest in capacity building while maintaining national control. • Publish comprehensive implementation roadmaps with well-defined targets and milestones. • Reduce reliance on FOLU and land-use sinks by accelerating energy and industrial decarbonization. • Rebuild strategic climate diplomacy to guide focused coalitions at COPs.