China's Realism in the Middle East
While the United States is seeking to adopt a lower profile in the Middle East, China's interests in the region is expanding. This raises questions about the future of China's strategy towards the region. Will China seize the opportunity to establish a heavy military presence, cultivate client states, build alliances and ultimately replace the US as the regional hegemon? In this article, we argue that there is little reason to expect any major shift in China’s strategy. Beijing will seek to expand its influence, but in a less forward way than the US, adopting more subtle means and a more flexible policy towards its partners. China’s foreign and security policy in the Middle East will probably remain pragmatic and restrained. Unlike the United States, China's foreign policy is not based on values and ideology, but firmly on realpolitik principles and considerations of interests.
Building on Strength. Proposals for US-Norwegian Cooperation on the Operational and Tactical Level
This paper suggests that the existing practice of deploying United States Marine Core (USMC) units from Marine Corps Prepositioning Program-Norway (MCPP-N) facilities in Trøndelag to other parts of Norway during crisis and war needs to be rethought. The operational- and tactical-level threats in this area are changing rapidly, and there is a high level of risk inherent in existing practice. We propose a concept based on the use of parts of the Norwegian offshore fleet for both operational and tactical transport and supply of the USMC.
Bridging the Atlantic. A Norwegian Contribution to US Sealift
There is currently considerable concern with US capacity to muster the acquired number of sealift vessels needed to swiftly deploy forces overseas. Norway for its part has a large, modern, and versatile merchant fleet that could be militarily useful in case of NATO operations to reinforce Europe. This brief suggest a bilateral agreement be signed between Norway and the US that obliges Norway to muster a significant number of Norwegian-controlled ships to support transatlantic US sealift operations. Norway, along with most other European NATO member states, relies on US reinforcements for its national security. These reinforcements arrive by sea. Therefore, an agreement such as the one suggested in this brief serves the security interests of the US, Norway, and the rest of the European NATO states.
Not Enough Maritime Capability. The Challenge of Reinforcing Europe
Russia’s resurgence has meant that the United States again must seriously consider a possible conflict in Europe in its military plans. Central to the defense of NATO allies is a requirement for U.S. reinforcement of Europe, and U.S. reinforcement in turn depends on U.S. maritime shipping, which faces a number of critical challenges.This paper examines the current capability and availability of U.S. shipping to meet U.S. strategic sealift needs. It describes efforts by the United States to modernize and sustain the capacity required for strategic goals, including the reinforcement of Europe, and examines how the United States could leverage allied commercial and sealift capacity to address potential gaps. Finally, the paper identifies recommendations for addressing these challenges.U.S. logistical capabilities that are required to rein-force Europe, including sealift capabilities, have atrophied since 1989. Competing naval requirements make addressing future sealift shortages unlikely to be a top funding priority, while complicated laws hamper quick solutions to filling maritime shortfalls. Until U.S. shipbuilding can fill the gaps, workarounds such as using allied maritime assets to ship U.S. reinforcements must be considered. The requirement to reinforce Europe is too urgent not to consider all alternatives to addressing future shortfalls.
På tide å tenke nytt om Iran
(Available in Norwegian only): Det overordnede målet for USAs såkalte "maximum pressure"-strategi har vært å fremforhandle en bedre atomavtale med Iran, samt å svekke både Teherans innflytelse i Midtøsten og ayatollah Khameneis grep om makten. Men har strategien vært vellykket i å oppnå dette?
Avskrekke hvem? Betydningen av strategisk kultur for cybersikkerhet
There is an ongoing debate in academia about if and how deterrence theory may be used in cyberspace. Deterrence was originally a theory developed for avoiding conventional and nuclear war. In the current discussion on cyber security, there has been pointed out a range of technical problems of transferring a theory about the physical world to cyberspace. We recognize these challenges of deterrence in cyberspace, but in this article we want to shed light on a different aspect of deterrence. That is the interplay between social and technical factors of deterrence in cyberspace. In this article we will discuss how deterrence as a strategy in cyberspace is influenced by the specific strategic culture of a country. We will use China as a case study to showcase our argument. Contrasts between Chinese and “Western” strategic culture results in concrete differences in how Chinese and Western countries act in cyberspace. By utilizing four components of deterrence theory (denial, punishment, entanglement and norms), we will show how an in-depth knowledge of a state’s security policy and strategic culture may be used to tailor a more effective deterrence and enforce the capacity of hindering unwanted activity.
Et ambisiøst fagmilitært råd
An assessment of the Military Advice the Chief of Defence of Norway recently submitted to the Minster of Defence.
Er Forsvaret forberedt på dagens sikkerhetsutfordringer?
Is the Norwegian Armed Forces prepared for today's security challenges?
The Military Threat to Europe
To what extent does Russia pose a military threat to Europe today? A military threat is traditionally regarded as a combination of capabilities and intentions. However, capabilities are evolving slowly while intensions may change rapidly. Russia's military modernization over the last decade has particularly strengthened its non-strategic nuclear weapons, the precision guided missiles, and the Navy.
Radicalization behind bars: Lessons and challenges from Norway and the Netherlands
How can correctional institutions and the wider society prevent radicalization behind bars?