Mind the Gap: National Views of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific
Japan has played an intrinsic role in formulating and promoting the concept of a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP) by making its version a core element of its foreign policy repertoire as it continues to strengthen and expand its presence beyond its immediate neighborhood. This chapter discusses the diplomatic, political, economic and security dimensions of Japan’s FOIP, expanding on both the strengths and challenges of the concept and its implementation.
Tre trender som utfordrer norsk utenrikspolitikk
(Available in Norwegian only): Denne policy briefen tar utgangspunkt i tre globale trender, og gir en analyse og vurderinger av hva trendene innebærer av utfordringer og muligheter for norsk utenrikspolitikk i tiden fremover: 1. Nye stormakter vokser frem. 2. Migrasjon brer om seg. 3. Utenrikspolitikk blir innenrikspolitikk.
The future of Russian arms exports
Will Russian arms export continue to boost Russian influence in the world?
Blikket i glasskulen: NATO de neste 70 år
What is the likely future of NATO? Will the alliance survive the next seventy years? Which challenges will it have to deal with? This article gazes into the future and attempts to identify some plausible scenarios for the years ahead. I argue that NATO will persist, but that is relevance is dependent on its adaptability to emerging challenges. Furthermore, the foundational values and the solidarity must be thriving. If not, NATO will be but a paper tiger. In the short term, the strains across the Atlantic is the most worrying tendency. However, climate change, migration and the digital revolution of our societies are long-term trends that eventually will challenge NATO more profoundly.
Tungt skyts
(Available in Norwegian only): Minda Holm anmelder Jon Hellesnes’ bok ‘NATO-komplekset: Om militærpolitikk, atomvåpen og norsk USA-servilitet’ i Klassekampens bokmagasin. Holm skriver her om de sannhetene som tas for gitt i norsk sikkerhets- og forsvarspolitikk, deriblant forholdet til USA og NATO. Hva er effekten av at Forsvarsdepartementet finansierer så mye av forskningen på norsk forsvarspolitikk?
The Relationship Between Narratives and Security Practices: Pushing the Boundaries of Military Instruments in Japan
Japanese security policy has undergone significant changes lately. Japanese policymakers have recently argued over advancing Japan’s Self-Defense Forces with new weapon systems. In particular, the Abe government has decided to pur- chase long-range cruise missiles for its new F-35A jetfighters, and to reconstruct a newly-built helicopter carrier into an aircraft carrier. While specific policy proposals continued di- viding policymakers and other stakeholders, the underlying story specifying Japan’s place in East Asia, the rise of China, the threat of North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs, the tight security relationship with the United States and the vulnerability of the Japanese archipelago has faced lit- tle core criticism. The lack of alternative national security narratives suggests the emergence of a Japanese security consensus in the mid-2010s. The strength of the narrative in deterring policymakers to refrain from critique, through the significant costs incurred by opposition, could also sug- gest a hegemonic narrative (but not necessarily a consensus). We find that the dominant narrative provided a necessary foundation for unorthodox policy proposals, which arguably enabled the Abe government to push through military in- strument expansions in the Self-Defense Forces, a move far from politically sustainable only a decade earlier.
Forebygging av krig og konflikt i cyberdomenet
(Available in Norwegian only): Cyberdomenet representerer kanskje en av vår tids største trusler mot internasjonal fred og sikkerhet men er viet lite oppmerksomhet hva gjelder forebyg- ging av krig og konflikt. Det er behov for internasjon- ale forpliktende kjøreregler som hever blikket over IKT-forvaltning, digitalisering og cybersikkerhetstil- tak og fokuserer på fredelige relasjoner mellom sta- ter i cyberdomenet. Skal en slik diskusjon ha effekt må den tas i FNs Sikkerhetsråd.
Breakfast seminar: Cyber threats and what to do about them?
Michael Sulmeyer, Director for Belfer Center's Cyber Project, is visiting NUPI to discuss cyber security and international politics.
Veivalg og spenninger i norsk sikkerhetspolitikk: Norges forhold til NATO og EU
(Full article available in Norwegian only): Norway’s security policy has been firmly anchored in its NATO membership and close bilateral relationship with the US since the 1950s. In parallell, the EU has regularly popped up on the Norwegian security political agenda. The balancing between the transatlantic and European pillar has created tensions in Norway’s security policy over the years, and especially with the strengthening of the EU’s common security and defence policy and shifting US foreign policy. The article also discusses how today’s more unpredictable and uncertain security environment, the decline in Western hegemony and global power shift towards Asia, geopolitical rivalry, and anti-liberal and anti-EU sentiments challenge established institutions and cooperation patterns that Norway has relied on for security and what the effects of these developments might be.
Illiberalism, geopolitics, and middle power security: Lessons from the Norwegian case
Middle powers have played a key role in supporting global governance, a rules-based order, and human rights norms. Apart from conveying and effectuating global solidarity and responsibility, multilateral cooperation has been an arena where middle powers seek protection and leverage relatively modest power to greater effect, sometimes as “helpful fixers” to great powers. This article argues that geopolitical revival and the contestation of the liberal order are challenging middle powers' traditional sheltering policies, based on empirical evidence from the Norwegian case. First, the weakening of multilateral organizations is making middle powers more vulnerable to great power rivalry and geopolitics, and Norway's relationship with Russia is particularly pointed. Second, existing shelters such as NATO and bilateral cooperation with the US are negatively affected by the latter's anti-liberal foreign policies, making looser sheltering frameworks important supplements. While Norway's and other middle powers' traditional policies within the “soft power” belt may continue, “doing good” may become less prioritized, due to the need for security.