Center
NUPI's Research Centre on New Technology
Coordinator
Events
Global changes driven by technological development are happening rapidly, and knowledge is essential to understand what these changes mean for the world. That is why NUPI has established a research environment that focuses on these developments. In short, we examine how digital technology influences the dynamics of the international system, affects interests and values, shifts power, and changes geopolitics, democracies, and strategic priorities.
At NUPI’s Centre for Research on New Technology, we work to understand and analyze the current landscape of digitalization, cybersecurity, and artificial intelligence (AI). In today’s world, these technologies have become indispensable for states, institutions, organizations, and individuals alike. While they offer a wide range of opportunities, they also present significant challenges.
The rise of digital technology has revolutionized how information is shared and processed. It has increased data availability, accelerated communication, and enabled new forms of economic interaction. In parallel, cybersecurity has become increasingly important, as threats and attacks on digital infrastructure grow more sophisticated. Protecting privacy, data integrity, and national security are among the most pressing challenges that demand interdisciplinary research and collaboration.
Over the past decade, artificial intelligence has made remarkable progress and has the potential to transform societies across a wide range of sectors. AI is already being used in healthcare, transportation, law enforcement, defense, and finance. This rapid growth brings new challenges related to great power competition, global trade, ethical use, fairness, accountability, and the risk of human error or bias. Regulation and policy development are therefore critical to realizing the full potential of AI technologies.
Digitalization, cybersecurity, and artificial intelligence will continue to evolve at a rapid pace, with far-reaching implications for interactions between states, international politics, and global trade. The growing reliance on technology will require new and more sophisticated solutions to protect society from unwanted disruptions and threats, thereby contributing to inclusive and sustainable development. A deeper understanding of these challenges calls for interdisciplinary research, collaboration with both public and private sector actors, and ongoing dialogue with policymakers.
At NUPI’s Centre for Research on New Technology, we are committed to understanding and analyzing how emerging technologies are shaping international politics and global trade. By serving as a hub for knowledge and expertise, we contribute to the development of research-based policy recommendations and help create a platform for debate and knowledge exchange. With a focus on digitalization, cybersecurity, and AI, the centre plays a leading role in generating insights into the international challenges and opportunities these technologies present.
Technological advancement is expected to continue accelerating, bringing ever more advanced tools that will greatly transform both society and the economy. Cybersecurity will remain a constant concern, requiring more sophisticated defense mechanisms and cross-sector and cross-border collaboration. Artificial intelligence will become increasingly powerful, requiring ethical guidelines and regulations to ensure responsible and human-centered use. Through research, analysis, and dialogue with key stakeholders, NUPI’s Centre for Research on New Technology will help shape policy and practice at both national and international levels. With a focus on societal changes in international politics and global trade, the centre is a driving force in addressing the consequences of new technologies, while also exploring the opportunities they offer. Through its research and insights, the centre produces knowledge and analysis to support a sustainable future in an increasingly technology-driven world.
The centre is led by Niels Nagelhus Schia and Lars Gjesvik. Other affiliated researchers include Karsten Friis, Claudia Aanonsen, Erik Reichborn-Kjennerud and Eskil Jakobsen. The centre was established in 2015, and NUPI staff has worked on the topics of cyber, new technologies and AI for more than a decade. To see all og NUPI's work on cyber through the years, click here.
Articles
New publications
Stuxnet - et paradigmeskifte?
More than a decade after Stuxnet was made publicly known, it remains the most vigorous example of a cyber attack causing both serious kinetic damage and as means to assert political pressure. Based on an analysis of the operation and its aftermath, this chapter argues that Stuxnet represents a paradigm shift. In view of advancements made to develop offensive and defensive cyber capabilities, particularly in the US, Israel and Iran, the shift refers to how states understand and use cyber capabilities during times of conflict. We illustrate how cyber operations can in certain contexts function as a supplement between diplomacy and the use of military means, but also in some cases as a substitute for conventional military force. The article is in Norwegian.
Internet governance and the UN in a multiplex world order era?
Over the last two decades Internet Governance (IG) has emerged as an increasingly complex and fraught field of policymaking involving both states and non-state actors on a multitude of arenas. Facing this complex field, the role of the United Nations (UN) in IG has been both varying and contested. While the UN has been discussing issues related to IG since the 1990s, disagreements on both substantive issues and where discussions ought to take place have intermittently resurfaced and remained relevant, but recent processes and challenges to the status quo asks questions about the direction going forward. In the UN, recently established processes aims to revamp the approach to IG, while the negotiations over a cybercrime convention, and the 2022 ITU plenipotentiary have made the long running contests between western and authoritarian states over this topic more visible. Broader trends and rising tensions globally raises questions not only about the future for the global nature of IG and the role of the UN in this, but also whether decoupling and alliances with like-minded states might become more dominant than global multilateral and multi-stakeholder channels, i.e a trend pointing towards a multiplex field of internet governance.1
Hva er det vi egentlig løser ved å slette TikTok?
Hvilke apper må Nasjonal sikkerhetsmyndighet vurdere i neste runde?
The subsea cable cut at Svalbard January 2022: What happened, what were the consequences, and how were they managed?
Svalbard is, like most other societies, largely dependent on an internet connection. The fiber connection on Svalbard consists of two separate subsea cables that connect Longyearbyen to the mainland. In some areas the cables were buried about two meters below the seabed, especially in areas where fishing is done, to “protect against destruction of the fishing fleet’s bottom trawling or anchoring of ships. (New version uploaded 18 January 2023)
Loss of Tonga’s telecommunication – what happened, how was it managed and what were the consequences?
In January 2022 the subsea volcano Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai in Tonga had a major eruption which also cut the country’s communication lines nationally, between Tonga’s inhabited islands and the outside world. The damage led to a complete halt in international communication (a “digital darkness”) which meant that, in the period immediately after the outbreak, not much was known about the extent of the damage in Tonga. Due to very limited access to contact with both the authorities and the population of Tonga, it was only during overflights carried out by the Australian and New Zealand air forces that one could begin to map the extent of the damage and the need for assistance.
Interpreting cyber-energy-security events: experts, social imaginaries, and policy discourses around the 2016 Ukraine blackout
We analyse the expert debate around a cyber attack in 2016 that caused an electric power blackout in Ukraine. Two expert reports were crucial for interpreting this event, and there are several competing narratives of cybersecurity where the event plays different roles. We show that the most securitized narratives became more prominent and point to the power wielded by private companies and experts in this field.
Private infrastructure in weaponized interdependence
The ability of states to exploit private resources at an international level is an increasingly salient political issue. In explaining the mechanisms of this shift, the framework of Weaponized Interdependence has quickly risen to prominence, arguing that those states that are centrally placed in global networks can exploit their centrality given the appropriate domestic institutions. Building on this framework, I suggest that the relationship between states and the private corporations holding the resources states seek to exploit is more dynamic and contested than assumed. Drawing on developments in the industry for constructing and operating submarine cables, I find that a paradigm shift in the market has significantly limited the authority of states vis-à-vis key market players. The contribution of this finding is to expand Weaponized Interdependence as a framework, paying closer attention to the relationship between private companies and states. This expansion allows for the utilization of Weaponized Interdependence as a framework for a broader set of cases, explaining not only when a network is prone to weaponization but also the limitations states face when they seek to do so.
Verdens rikeste mann har geopolitiske ambisjoner. Derfor bekymrer Twitter-kjøpet.
Elon Musk's involvement in the Ukraine war and take-over of Twitter raise a number of questions and dilemmas (in Norwegian).
Norwegian cybersecurity: a small-state approach to building international cyber cooperation
As a small, open and highly digitalized country, cyber security is an issue of growing policy importance in Norway. Yet, like other highly digitalized states, Norway has faced difficulties in squaring national cyber security with private business interests and the multitude of actors. Recent years has seen efforts aimed at uniting disparate institutions and organizations into a coherent framework that works.
Digitale trusler blir kinkig for Norge i Sikkerhetsrådet
(Op-ed in Norwegian): De fleste land rangerer trusler via det digitale rom som en av de største utfordringene for det 21. århundret. På tross av dette har tematikken knapt vært nevnt i FNs sikkerhetsråd. Hva kommer det av? Og kan Norge gjøre noe med det? spør Niels Nagelhus Schia og Erik Kursetgjerde i denne DN-kronikken.
Digital Vulnerabilities and the Sustainable Development Goals in Developing Countries
How does digitalization lead to new kinds of global connections and disconnections in the developing countries? And which role does digitalization play for the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals? This entry focuses on cybersecurity capacity building (CCB) and the sustainability of development processes in developing countries.
Managing a digital revolution: cyber security capacity building in Myanmar
Digitalization is exposing developing countries to a growing number of risks as well as opportunities associated with connecting to the Internet. Myanmar stands out as a critical case of both the pitfalls and the benefits Internet connection can bring. Amidst a political transition from military rule to a functioning democracy Myanmar is adding ICT to key areas like banking and e-government. Having been one of the least connected countries in the world only five years ago the country is now connecting to the Internet at an unprecedented pace, with few institutions in place to ensure the transition goes smoothly. The rapid expansion of Internet connectivity is connecting ever more people to an international world of business, discourse, and entertainment, but also crime, subterfuge, and discord. A crucial aspect for development in the years to come will be the harnessing of the benefits, as well as mitigating the downsides that inherently follow in the wake of Internet access (Schia, 2018). In this chapter, we examine the risks and potential benefits of Myanmar’s embracement of digital technologies.
Intergovernmental checkmate on cyber? Processes on cyberspace in the United Nations
Cyberspace is an increasingly controversial field on the international agenda. Despite the fact that processes on the thematic have been going on in the UN since 1998, a more significant international agreement is needed on what basic principles should apply in cyberspace. Small states have the opportunity of pushing cybersecurity as a thematic priority in the United Nations Security Council – a path Norway could pursue in its forthcoming 2021–2022 Security Council term. The attribution of the assumed Russian cyber operations toward the Norwegian parliament earlier this year actualizes the addressing of the issue in the Council. The policy brief discusses the GGE negotiations on cyberspace in 2015 and 2017 - and gives policy recommendations on the way forward.
Offensive cyberoperasjoner: Den nye normalen?
Can states retaliate if they get digitally attacked in peace-time? What are states doing and what does international law say about this? What are the potential security implications of an eventual increase in the use of offensive cyber operations?
Hacking democracy: managing influence campaigns and disinformation in the digital age
How are states responding to the threat of using digital technologies to subvert democratic processes? Protecting political and democratic processes from interference via digital technologies is a new and complicated security threat. In recent years the issue has been most prominent in terms of election security, yet the widespread usage of digital technologies allows for the subversion of democratic processes in multifaceted ways. From disrupting the political discourse with false information to inflaming and stoking political divisions digital technologies allows for a variety of ways for malicious actors to target democracies. This article compares different state experiences with interference in sovereign and contested political decisions. More specifically the article compares the Norwegian approach and experience in managing these challenges with those of Finland and the UK. Mapping both how the problem is understood, and the role of previous experiences in shaping public policy.
The role of the UN Security Council in cybersecurity: international peace and security in the digital age
At the 75th anniversary of the United Nations, the UN Security Council is faced with difficult questions about its efficacy, relevance and legitimacy. The leading powers and the permanent members (P5) of the Security Council – China, France, Russia, the UK and the USA – are drawn into a heavy contest over the world order. Power lines are (to be) drawn in an increasingly digital, interconnected and multi-stakeholder society. So far, despite the language from heads of states, global media houses and from leaders of international organizations including NATO and the UN, none of the P5 countries have brought cyber to the UNSC. Other countries – for instance, Lithuania and the Netherlands – have considered introducing cybersecurity issues in the Council, but no action has followed. One of the most recent members-elect, Estonia, has pledged to take the issue up. To stay relevant and act up on its responsibility for international peace and security, the Security Council will have to establish itself vis-à-vis cyber issues. The goal of this chapter is to examine why and how. To what extent do questions pertaining to digital threats and cybersecurity fall within the mandate of the Council and what could it address given the politically tense times among the P5.
Projects
Earth to Orbit - Building Bridges in Space (DISCOVER)
DISCOVER analyses the key drivers of cooperation and conflict in space governance, highlighting the importance of international collaboration for global security and the stability of m...
Digital sovereignty and autonomy (GAIA)
NUPI in collaboration with Simula Research Lab will map global data flows and their impact on national autonomy and sovereignty. ...
Countering Hybrid Warfare (Multinational Capability Development Campaign) (MCDC (CHW))
NUPI leads an international project on how to counter hybrid warfare. ...