Book launch: America’s Middle East
NUPI invites you to a book launch with Marc Lynch and his new book America’s Middle East: The Ruination of a Region.
Webinar: Europe’s Green Transition: Norway’s Role, Promises and Challenges
This webinar brings together experts and policymakers to explore Norway’s evolving partnership with the EU in shaping a sustainable future.
Artificial Intelligence and Democratic Elections – International Experiences and National Recommendations
The Expert Group on Artificial Intelligence, Democracy and Elections was appointed to assess the significance of AI for democratic elections and to propose measures in response. The work has focused on three areas: (1) the information and media landscape, (2) covert election interference, and (3) election administration and cybersecurity. Norway has strong foundations for democratic resilience, particularly through a robust and diverse media system. At the same time, editor-driven media are challenged by social media, algorithmic platforms, and changing media habits. AI—especially generative AI—amplifies existing threats by enabling rapid, wide dissemination of content and more sophisticated influence operations, as demonstrated in the 2024 elections and in cases such as Romania. The Expert Group recommends measures to strengthen competence, preparedness, and cooperation, including: – Ensuring that election authorities have the necessary expertise and capacity in AI and communication. – Reducing opportunities for speculation about errors in election administration or claims that elections have been subject to unwanted interference. – Strengthening contact between public authorities and technology and platform companies. – Holding political actors accountable and providing appropriate support. – Prioritizing the rapid implementation of relevant EU legislation, particularly the DSA and the AI Act. – Pursuing an active media policy that maintains free, strong, and diverse editor-driven media. – Building source awareness and promoting critical media, technology, and AI literacy. – Increasing research and cooperation between authorities, researchers, civil society, and technology companies. – Acting as a driver for international cooperation in these areas.
Skyggekrigen i lufta: Droner over Europa
22. september blinker det i grønt mot den svarte nattehimmelen over Kastrup lufthavn. Ikke akkurat et sjeldent syn på en flyplass. Det er bare det...
The Effectiveness of the SADC Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM)
The report assesses the effectiveness of the SADC Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM), deployed in 2021 to counter the ASWJ insurgency in Cabo Delgado. SAMIM helped reduce insurgent capacity and restore some state presence, but it struggled with mismatched resources, limited host-nation cooperation, and parallel Rwandan operations. The mission never achieved key tasks such as sustained territorial stabilisation, air and maritime support, or long-term capacity-building of Mozambican forces. Political constraints and operational gaps ultimately led to its withdrawal in mid-2024, despite persistent insecurity.
UK: Leading politically but militarily questionable
In the Multinational Force Ukraine series of policy briefs leading experts from allied countries assess key factors for participation in the Multinational Force Ukraine. This includes the political willingness of allies to deploy troops—on the ground, in the air, or at sea—to establish a military presence in or around Ukraine. They also examine the conditions for such deployments to occur (before, during, or after peace negotiations), the roles these forces would be expected to perform (defensive or offensive), the red lines imposed by national governments, and the specific capabilities each country could realistically contribute. This brief analyses the UK.
Italy: Transatlantic Loyalty First
In the Multinational Force Ukraine series of policy briefs leading experts from allied countries assess key factors for participation in the Multinational Force Ukraine. This includes the political willingness of allies to deploy troops—on the ground, in the air, or at sea—to establish a military presence in or around Ukraine. They also examine the conditions for such deployments to occur (before, during, or after peace negotiations), the roles these forces would be expected to perform (defensive or offensive), the red lines imposed by national governments, and the specific capabilities each country could realistically contribute. This brief analyses Italy.
To scenarier for krigen i Ukraina: Hva betyr de for Europa – og hva vil det koste?
Russlands ulovlige angrepskrig i Ukraina har pågått siden 2014, og har ført til store menneskelige og økonomiske tap. Denne studien undersøker de materielle og økonomiske kostnadene for Europa og Norge dersom Russland vinner fram med sin krigføring, versus en situasjon hvor Ukraina igjen bringes på offensiven og tvinger Russland til fredsslutning. Vi tror ikke på noe gjennombrudd for president Trumps forsøk på forhandlinger og en diplomatisk løsning på krigen i Ukraina. Russland har ikke vist reell vilje til kompromiss, og fremsetter fortsatt sine maksimumskrav, som i praksis betyr ukrainsk underkastelse. Krigen vil derfor trolig fortsette som en utmattelseskrig, der de to landenes økonomiske utvikling, og utviklingen ved fronten, vil avgjøre utfallet. Denne rapporten skisserer to mulige scenarier for den videre utvikling i krigen, hvordan de kan bli realisert, og hvilke konsekvenser de kan ha for europeisk sikkerhet og forsvarsbehov. Rapporten sikter mot å illustrere for norske beslutningstakere hvilke grunnleggende økonomiske og sikkerhetspolitiske valg den russiske angrepskrigen i Ukraina utløser, og hvordan ulike utfall i krigen kan påvirke våre egne sikkerhetsbehov og forsvarsutgifter. Situasjonen stiller Europa overfor krav til resolutt handling. Hovedspørsmålene vi stiller i rapporten er hva som skal til for at Russland eller Ukraina seirer militært: Hva koster det Europa og allierte i økt forsvarsinnsats dersom Russland seirer eller lykkes å nøytralisere Ukraina militært og politisk (Scenario 1), og hvilken kostnad det har å gjøre Ukraina i stand til å motstå russiske angrep og gjenvinne muligheten til begrensede motoffensiver (Scenario 2). Rapporten er skrevet av ledende eksperter innen sikkerhetspolitikk, militær doktrine og økonomi. Forfatternes tilknyttede institusjoner er ikke ansvarlige for innholdet, det er forfatterne selv som er ansvarlige for analysen og konklusjonene i rapporten.
Denmark: High on will, low on military capabilities
In the Multinational Force Ukraine series of policy briefs leading experts from allied countries assess key factors for participation in the Multinational Force Ukraine. This includes the political willingness of allies to deploy troops—on the ground, in the air, or at sea—to establish a military presence in or around Ukraine. They also examine the conditions for such deployments to occur (before, during, or after peace negotiations), the roles these forces would be expected to perform (defensive or offensive), the red lines imposed by national governments, and the specific capabilities each country could realistically contribute. This brief analyses Denmark.
Belgium: Committed in Principle, Constrained in Practice
In the Multinational Force Ukraine series of policy briefs leading experts from allied countries assess key factors for participation in the Multinational Force Ukraine. This includes the political willingness of allies to deploy troops—on the ground, in the air, or at sea—to establish a military presence in or around Ukraine. They also examine the conditions for such deployments to occur (before, during, or after peace negotiations), the roles these forces would be expected to perform (defensive or offensive), the red lines imposed by national governments, and the specific capabilities each country could realistically contribute. This brief analyses Belgium.