Keeping your cool: Arctic security challenges across time and space
The dispute over Greenland has drawn broader attention to Arctic security among NATO allies, EU member states, and beyond. As the most immediate tensions related to Greenland may subside, heightened interest in – and awareness of – security challenges in the region will persist and warrants nuanced discussion and international coordination. These developments set the tone for this Input Memo to the Arctic Security Roundtable at the 2026 Munich Security Conference.
How to implement a full maritime services ban on Russian oil
The EU is considering a full maritime services ban on Russian oil. While the final proposal and decision are still pending, the measure would replace the current oil price-cap regime by prohibiting European and allied companies from providing maritime services for Russian oil exports, regardless of the sale price. The ban would cover transportation, insurance, financing, and other related services. This brief outlines how such a full services ban could be designed and implemented effectively, and how to address potential negative side effects and potential Russian countermeasures. This brief is part of the The Nordic–Baltic Eight (NB8) Institute Series of Topical Briefs.
Sahel – The Perfect Storm
The Sahel is the borderland of 3 million square kilometres between the Sahara Desert and the African savannah and forest lands further south. Much of this huge area is inhospitable. Insurgencies are common, as are migration and smuggling, jobs being as rare here as effective government intervention–state power extends only fitfully, and the region resists attempts to subdue militants, people-traffickers, nomadic herders or anyone excluded from power. The Western Sahel’s fragile states face growing popular discontent, complicated by both climate change and military intervention by France and other powers. Mali is the epicentre of the Sahel crisis: Morten Bøås charts the history of Mali and its fragile neighbours, identifying their current frailty as unsettled states, without legitimate social contracts or political consensus. This in turn has generated competing identities and economic interests, which spill over into resource conflicts over grazing, water, mineral reserves or smuggling routes. Such local contests have been manipulated by elites intent on their own preservation, and appropriated by jihadi insurgents eager to integrate into local communities. What will happen if all the ingredients of this perfect storm coalesce? What are the ramifications for the Sahel, its neighbours, Europe and the wider world?
Energy as a tool of statecraft after Ukraine and Gaza
The wars in Ukraine and Gaza have transformed how energy functions as a tool of statecraft, revealing that contemporary energy-related power extends far beyond the manipulation of commodity trade. Direct targeting of electricity systems, fuel infrastructure, and even nuclear power facilities has become a central feature of warfare, exposing the vulnerability of modern, electrified societies. These attacks, combined with intensified forms of economic coercion such as sanctions, price caps, and market reconfiguration, underscore the inadequacy of the traditional “energy weapon” concept, which focuses narrowly on supply disruptions by exporting states. Instead, the new energy security landscape is shaped by interdependence, infrastructure exposure, cyber risk, and shifts triggered by the global energy transition. As decarbonization advances, vulnerabilities migrate from fuels to technologies, value chains, and critical raw materials, generating new geopolitical asymmetries and strategic dependencies. For European policymakers, these developments demand a reconceptualization of energy security that prioritizes systemic resilience, protection of civilian energy infrastructure, and integrated approaches to economic statecraft, defence planning, and climate policy. Understanding energy as both a strategic asset and a potential target is essential for navigating a future in which energy systems are increasingly central to conflict, coercion, and geopolitical competition.
Energy as a tool of statecraft after Ukraine and Gaza
The wars in Ukraine and Gaza have transformed how energy functions as a tool of statecraft, revealing that contemporary energy-related power extends far beyond the manipulation of commodity trade. Direct targeting of electricity systems, fuel infrastructure, and even nuclear power facilities has become a central feature of warfare, exposing the vulnerability of modern, electrified societies. These attacks, combined with intensified forms of economic coercion such as sanctions, price caps, and market reconfiguration, underscore the inadequacy of the traditional “energy weapon” concept, which focuses narrowly on supply disruptions by exporting states. Instead, the new energy security landscape is shaped by interdependence, infrastructure exposure, cyber risk, and shifts triggered by the global energy transition. As decarbonization advances, vulnerabilities migrate from fuels to technologies, value chains, and critical raw materials, generating new geopolitical asymmetries and strategic dependencies. For European policymakers, these developments demand a reconceptualization of energy security that prioritizes systemic resilience, protection of civilian energy infrastructure, and integrated approaches to economic statecraft, defence planning, and climate policy. Understanding energy as both a strategic asset and a potential target is essential for navigating a future in which energy systems are increasingly central to conflict, coercion, and geopolitical competition.
Krise og krig: Hva gjør Norge?
Akkurat nå føles det som at utenrikspolitikk ikke lenger er noe som “skjer der ute”, men at det angår hver og en av oss. Valgene som tas nå, er he...