Publications
Hvordan bør Norge forvalte rominfrastrukturen i nord?
How should Norway manage its space infrastructure in the High North when it is at once a security asset, an economic resource and an arena for great-power rivalry? Amid growing pressure from state and commercial actors, Norway’s ability to monitor its own maritime areas, contribute to stability on Svalbard and remain relevant in allied cooperation increasingly depends on this infrastructure.
Science diplomacy and sovereignty in Svalbard
Power politics and security dynamics in the Arctic increasingly manifest themselves in international research and science collaboration. Changes are visible also in the archipelago of Svalbard, where research is increasingly marked by strategic competition and framed in security policy terms. To a greater extent than before, research in the Arctic is defined by security measures and cautiousness. This Policy Brief discusses how Svalbard’s status as both a geopolitical hotspot and a global laboratory for climate research makes for a difficult balancing act.
The NB8–Ukraine Security Nexus: Shaping Europe’s Future Defence Architecture
Europe’s security order is undergoing a structural transformation against the backdrop of a multipolar world. Russia’s protracted war against Ukraine and its full-scale sub-threshold warfare against Europe are creating a security environment in which mistakes will carry historic consequences. In this emerging security landscape, Ukraine is no longer merely a recipient of security assistance; it is an important contributor to the development of Europe’s defence capacity. The Nordic-Baltic Eight (NB8)-Ukraine security nexus has the potential to become the operational core of a wider European response to Russia’s long-standing security threat. To achieve this, Ukraine must be integrated into Europe’s emerging security architecture now. Data from the Everywhere War Tracker underscores the urgency: more than 450 incidents in the Euro-Atlantic region between 2022 and October 2026, in which Russia’s role has been established. At the same time, although every NB8 state concluded a 10-year bilateral security cooperation agreement with Ukraine, turning these agreements into operational partnerships has proved difficult and slow: for instance, a solid rocket fuel plant planned in Denmark by Fire Point has been delayed until 2027. What else, beyond its battlefield experience, can Ukraine offer Europe? Why might a “frozen” war turn out to be the calm before a larger storm? What role should Ukraine play in European security? You will find the answers to each of these questions in the report “The NB8–Ukraine Security Nexus: Shaping Europe’s Future Defence Architecture”. The report was prepared by the Sahaidachnyi Security Center (SSC) in cooperation with the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) and the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS) at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs (UI).
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Somaila*
Somalia continues to grapple with increasingly severe and frequent climate shocks that impede people’s livelihoods, worsen the existing humanitarian crisis and influence local conflict dynamics over access to natural resources. In November 2025, after four consecutive failed rainy seasons had affected millions of people, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) declared a national drought emergency. Strong El Niño conditions are forecast to bring wetter-than-usual conditions during the October–December 2026 deyr rainy season, with a high risk of floods in central and southern Somalia. Some communities experience successive periods of drought and flooding without sufficient time to recover between shocks. These adverse effects of climate change are interacting with a volatile security situation, influenced by political competition and fragmentation, as well as continued clashes with al-Shabab, which contribute to deepening an already dire humanitarian crisis.
What can public opinion data tell us about Putin’s grip on power in Russia?
Support for Russian President Vladimir Putin is a qualitatively different concept than support for an elected executive in a democracy. It is essential to understand these differences to interpret public opinion data in Russia. This knowledge paper discusses that there is little evidence of widespread preference falsification in Russian public opinion data regarding support for the government and its policies as of yet, but preference falsification could increase with greater repression in Russia. Moreover, Putin’s popularity has decreased substantially over the spring and summer 2026, but remains high in both absolute terms and relative to his popularity prior to the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. There is great variation across age and ethnic groups in terms of support for Putin, while support for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine varies substantially by age, gender and ethnic identity.
NB8 and the Drone Challenge
Drone incursions in the Baltic States and Finland have made clear that this is no longer a distant battlefield concern. This brief argues that as the NB8 framework matures into an increasingly like-minded security community, drone cooperation could stimulate market integration. A standardised, modular drone platform architecture, a European drone defence “Platform market” model, could give the countries the economy of scale that they otherwise lack.
Digital Peacebuilding? The Socio-Technicality of Transforming Armed Conflict
This book explores how we can make sense of the increasing use of digital technology in peacebuilding. It studies digital peacebuilding at different stages of conflict, including conflict prevention, conflict mitigation, peace mediation, and sustainable transitions from armed conflict. Moving beyond a focus on individual tools, the book encourages a ‘post-digital’ posture that enables a reflexive position vis-à-vis the appeal of digital innovation. It suggests exploring how technologies are always socially embedded, and how the socio-technicality of digital peacebuilding conditions prospects of conflict transformation. To this end, the book develops the concept of apomediated peacebuilding, which suggests that authoritative knowledge about conflict and peace that underpins digital peacebuilding is generated in decentred peer-to-peer networks that involve both humans and machines. It also encourages a critical-reflexive engagement with how claims about technology and society shape digital peacebuilding. In addition, the book is interested in how these dynamics and outcomes differ globally depending on variations in the degree of digitalization of the conflict context and levels of political repression. The book presents comparative empirical research on digital peacebuilding initiatives in South Sudan, Sri Lanka, and Northern Ireland, as well as illustrative examples from several other cases. It delves into a variety of applications, including social media monitoring to counter harmful speech, the use of mobile phones and mobile apps to enable localized early warning and early response, the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) in digital dialogues to support peace processes, and everyday online interactions that can foster societal reconciliation and political change.
The Adaptive Peacebuilding Guidebook
When we hear the word “peace”, we often think of the end of a war, a peace agreement, or large-scale reconstruction efforts that follow a conflict. In reality, however, peace does not emerge the day after a conflict ends. Rather, it is nurtured gradually through everyday interactions, relationships, and collective efforts. Peace is not something that can be delivered from the outside; it is something that emerges from within societies and communities themselves. The “Adaptive Peacebuilding Guidebook” seeks to translate this understanding into a practical framework through the approach known as Adaptive Peacebuilding. The academic foundations, theories, and concepts underpinning Adaptive Peacebuilding have already been articulated in the book Adaptive Peacebuilding: A New Approach to Sustaining Peace in the 21st Century . Adaptive Peacebuilding views peacebuilding not as a process of implementing predetermined plans or applying universal solutions, but as a process through which people learn, reflect, and adapt collectively in response to changing circumstances. Based on the academic insights presented in that book, the newly published guidebook to Adaptive Peacebuilding clearly summarizes the concept of Adaptive Peacebuilding for practitioners and presents eight case studies from United Nations agencies, bilateral development agencies such as JICA, and NGOs.
From the Primacy of Politics to Benchmarks: Realising UNISFA’s Protection of Civilians Approach in Abyei
Situated between the disputed borders of South Sudan and Sudan, the Abyei region (also referred to as “the Box”) has been characterised by political uncertainty, insecurity, and competing claims to authority. Over the years, Abyei has become increasingly volatile, with a mix of criminal activity, large-scale seasonal incursions, armed persistent intrusion, and highly localised cross-border dynamics. These developments have not only defined everyday life in Abyei but have also become intertwined with broader conflict dynamics in both Sudan and South Sudan. In response to tensions surrounding the region, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) established the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA) through Resolution 1990 on 27 June 2011. Since its deployment, UNISFA has been mandated to maintain peace and security, support stability and development, facilitate the implementation of the Abyei Protocol, and contribute to border demarcation through the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism (JBVMM). The mission has also played a critical role in supporting local governance structures and fostering engagement between communities and administrations. However, the political and security landscape of Abyei has changed considerably since 2011, presenting new challenges for the mission.
Revising the Post-2022 Arctic Security Literature
This paper reviews the state of the art in security research on the European Arctic, focusing primarily on work published since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Topics discussed include the reordering of Arctic cooperation following the NATO enlargement, Russian military modernisation, China’s role as an Arctic actor and the risk of conflict in the region. The paper concludes by setting out key issues for future research.