Changing or frozen narratives? The Arctic in Russian media and expert commentary, 2021–2022
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 has brought Russia–West relations to its lowest point since the Cold War. Relations in the Arctic region are not excepted, evidenced not least by the other seven member states’ pausing their participation in Russia’s Arctic Council chairmanship (which concluded in May 2023). To the extent that “Arctic exceptionalism” – the notion that the Arctic has been characterised by a cooperative mode between Russia and the West which has remained relatively untouched by increasing tensions elsewhere – was ever an appropriate description, Western analysts have now declared it firmly dead. How does this situation look from within Russia? This research paper investigates how the Russian state media and the foreign policy expert community have portrayed the Arctic in 2021 and 2022. How much change has been seen since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine? By surveying “the story about the Arctic” as presented by mainstream narrators and experts, we gain insights into, among other things, how changes in Arctic cooperation, sanctions, the role of China in the Arctic, and the question of climate change are conveyed to Russian audiences. The paper proceeds as follows. We start by briefly explaining the methods and data used. We then present a portrayal of the Arctic in Russia’s government’s newspaper Rossiiskaya gazeta, followed by the role of the Arctic in analyses published by the Russian International Affairs Council and the journal Russia in Global Affairs. Lastly, we conclude by discussing a general continuity in the way the Arctic is framed in the material, and foreground three core themes: climate change, security, and cooperation.
The Ukraine War, the New Geopolitics of Energy, and Norway
This study aims to address the question of how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has changed patterns of regional and global energy interactions and how this influences perceptions of Norway as a major regional energy actor. To examine these important questions, we will proceed in the following manner. In the first part of this study, we will present our operational understanding of the key concepts shaping our thinking about the relationship between the geopolitical and geoeconomic aspects of international cooperation and rivalry. Here we also will discuss the role of various national instruments of power in the pursuit of geopolitical and geoeconomic objectives. In the second part we narrow the scope of this examination to shed light on the relationship between geopolitics and energy in global and regional contexts, paying special attention to trends shaping the international energy game. This includes the changing role of Russia; how green energy transition reshapes international energy cooperation and how old and new energy-related policy instruments are evolving in this rapidly changing energy landscape. In addition, we also examine the nature of the old and new threats to energy flows, particularly those related to critical energy infrastructure. In the third part of this study, we examine the direct and indirect impacts the Russian war against Ukraine has had on energy markets and what implications these recent developments have for the position of Norway as a major energy actor. Norway’s importance for energy consumers, especially in Europe, has increased because of the war. Although the global energy trends discussed in the previous section also influence Norway and Europe, the focus in the latter section is on the regional dimension as Norway’s energy supplies reach first and foremost Europe. Finally, we examine possible scenarios that may influence energy markets and geopolitical conditions, with special attention paid to global factors with the potential to cause serious shifts. Part of the focus is on possible technological breakthroughs that may change the parameters of the international energy interactions and undermine the position of traditional energy producers and exporters.
European Actorness in a Shifting Geopolitical Order. European Strategic Autonomy Through Differentiated Integration
This is an open access book. Over the past decade, the global geopolitical context has changed significantly, with a geopolitical power shift and a more assertive Russia and China. With the unprovoked Russian invasion of Ukraine, European security has been put on high alert. The implications of the Russian military invasion are many and difficult to grasp in full. But the need for greater European strategic autonomy appears increasingly evident. But how can this be achieved in the short run? The answer to this question is often that it is impossible and that this can only be achieved in the long run. The aim of this book is to present a different perspective. It aims at showing that it should be possible to make the most out of the current European system if we adjust our understanding of how it works. The book argues that strategic autonomy may be reached—also in the short run—if differentiated integration is seen as an asset rather than a challenge. While the EU remains the core in such a system (together with NATO in the military domain), there is a multitude of other (bilateral and minilateral) regional and sub-regional integration processes that need to be taken into account to get the full idea of how European strategic autonomy can be achieved. This book starts by presenting a theoretical framework for how to study European actorness beyond the EU, then this framework will be applied both to the development towards the EU as a foreign policy actor through the mechanisms of enlargement.
Russiske røster mot krig
Innledning. Fokus: Krigen og forskningen
Russlands angrep på Ukraina 24. februar kom overraskende på mange. Det medførte flere debatter i media, der forskere kritiserte hverandre for å ikke ha sett hva som var på gang, for å ha vist for stor forståelse for Putin-regimets posisjoner, og for å la sine politiske holdninger farge analysen. I denne Fokus-spalten vil vi forsøke å løfte disse diskusjonene opp på et akademisk nivå. Ikke for å fordele skyld, men for å ta faglig lærdom. I denne innledningsteksten vil jeg blant annet peke på behovet for mer analytisk bredde, for å fokusere på både språk og materialitet, og for å være ekstra bevisst på egne holdninger når man beveger seg inn i en normativ politisk debatt.
Hvordan kan EU fremme demokrati i Øst-Europa og på Vest-Balkan?
KRONIKK: Hvilke politiske utfordringer står norsk økonomi overfor? Her er fem av dem.
Hva skjer med den russiske krigsmotstanden?
På dette frokostseminaret ser vi nærmere på hvilken motstand russerne har mot krigen i Ukraina.
Opportunities Matter: The Evolution of Far-Right Protest in Georgia
What role do political opportunities play in far-right mobilisation? The case of Georgia indicates that modernisation in itself may be insufficient to trigger a far-right backlash. A systematised database of 154 far-right protest events in Georgia in the period 2003–2020 shows that the movement remained dormant for over two decades after post-Soviet independence and a decade after the 2003 Rose Revolution. After 2012, however, less severe repression of protest, divides within the political elite, and the sympathetic attitudes of mainstream political and societal actors enabled far-right mobilisation and violence. Thus, however deep-rooted anti-modernisation, a backlash may not erupt until mobilisation opportunities become available.