US and UK Elections: Implications for NATO and Northern European Security
This report was written before President Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 US President Elections. An updated report can be found here: https://www.nupi.no/en/publications/cristin-pub/us-and-uk-elections-implications-for-nato-and-northern-european-security2 Elections on both sides of the Atlantic have highlighted diverging views and increasing tensions over the importance of the security alliance, which celebrates its 75th anniversary this year. The most impactful election will undoubtedly take place in the United States, where the two candidates present Europe with remarkably different challenges. The re-election of President Joseph Biden to a second consecutive term in office will largely represent continuity albeit few clear incentives to undertake the transformational changes necessary for Europe to adapt to an increasingly volatile security landscape. On the other hand, if former President Donald Trump secures a second term in the Oval Office, Europeans could see their transatlantic security alliance thrown into turmoil and could be forced to consider difficult and uncomfortable steps to strengthen their own security. Voters will also head to the polls across Europe, including in the highly anticipated European Parliament elections, which will shape the composition of the next iteration of EU institutions. However, most notable for Northern European security will be elections in the United Kingdom on July 4th, which could lead to a change in the governing party for the first time in 14 years. A recent commitment by Downing Street to increase defence spending to 2.5 % by 2030 – reaching £87 billion in that year – has upped the ante towards its Labour opposition, which has suggested a similar increase but without providing a specific timeframe. As the NATO Alliance prepares for a 75th anniversary celebration in Washington, DC, questions loom regarding its capacity to deter a potentially emboldened Russia, particularly considering the Kremlin’s recent advances in the war in Ukraine, now entering its third year. This analysis assesses the implications of the upcoming elections on both sides of the Atlantic. It combines perspectives from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Norway, and assesses implications for NATO, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and future security in Northern Europe.
Frokostseminar: USA og geopolitikk
Kenneth R. Weinstein gir oss et innblikk i amerikansk utenrikspolitikk på dette seminaret.
Gendering Security Sector Reform through Capacity Building? The MINUSMA Specialized Police Team on Crime Scene Management
En viktig del av internasjonal fredsbygging er støtte til reform av sikkerhetssektoren i konfliktrammede stater. Dette gjøres blant annet ved å tilby kapasitetsbygging gjennom innsatser i FNs fredsoperasjoner. Fra 2019 til 2022 sørget et norskledet polititeam for kapasitetsbygging innen åstedsgranskning til maliske sikkerhetsstyrker som en del av FNs fredsbevarende styrker i Mali (MINUSMA). De norske offiserene jobbet med å organisere kurs og som mentorer for de maliske offiserene. Denne artikkelen bruker eksempelet fra MINUSMA til å studere hvordan ekstern støtte til reform kan bidra til å fremme kjønnsperspektiver i sikkerhetssektoren i konfliktrammede land. FNs sikkerhetsrådsresolusjon 1325 og Kvinner, fred og sikkerhetsagendaen oppfordrer FNs medlemsland til å bidra til økt kvinneandel og integrering av kjønnsperspektiver i FNs fredsoperasjoner. Til tross for dette, settes det ikke alltid søkelys på kjønnsperspektivet når slik støtte tilbys. Analysen viser at de norske offiserene arbeidet aktivt for å fremme likestilling og kvinners deltakelse, til tross for at det ikke var en sentral del av prosjektet, og uten at det fantes referanser til resolusjon 1325 eller kvinner eller kjønnsperspektiver i prosjektdokumentet. I stedet viste offiserene til at kvinners deltakelse og likestilling er innlemmet i den «norske måten å jobbe på», samt MINUSMAs mandat som grunnlag for dette arbeidet. Feministisk forskning skiller mellom en tradisjonell og transformerende tilnærming til hvordan en arbeider med kjønn og sikkerhetssektorreform, der en tradisjonell tilnærming innebærer at man jobber innenfor eksisterende strukturer med for eksempel å øke kvinners deltakelse eller for at kvinner skal motta samme type kompetanseheving. En transformerende tilnærming vil derimot innebære at man tar en nærmere titt på disse strukturene, og at man ser på hvordan kvinners roller i sikkerhetssektoren påvirkes av samfunnsmessige, kulturelle og religiøse normer. Artikkelen finner at arbeidet hovedsakelig har lent seg på tradisjonelle forståelser av kjønn, og at mulighetene for kapasitetsbygging til å bidra til dypere endringer i sikkerhetssektoren derfor er begrenset. Funnene tyder dermed videre på at individuelle offiserer kan gjøre mye for å fremme kvinners deltakelse og kjønnsperspektiver, men mer radikal transformasjon av sikkerhetssektoren vil trolig kreve handling på mer strukturelt nivå.
Forskning på radikalisering og forebygging: Status og veien videre
Konsortiet for terrorismeforskning inviterer til seminar om forskning på radikalisering og forebygging med Joel Busher og Sarah Marsden.
The Arctic Barometer: Measuring Expert Predictions on the Arctic Region
Making predictions in a highly uncertain environment is always a hazardous enterprise. Confronted with global warming, the future of the Arctic region has been often debated, both in terms of the scope and the speed of expected changes, including the future of resource development, the opening of shipping routes, and the evolution of multilateral fora. These predictions have come from different sources: governments through different policy papers and statements, the media, civil society, and academics, to name but a few. It can be difficult to account for this vast and diverse array of predictions, considering that each actor has interests to promote. We decided to develop a survey asking different actors to make predictions about possible Arctic geopolitical developments. Instead of letting individuals make their own predictions on the topic of their choice, we selected plausible scenarios and prompted respondents to evaluate if these developments were likely or unlikely to happen. Scenarios were developed to be both visible and concrete: we can evaluate if the scenario unfolded or not during a certain time period. For example, we can observe if Russia violated the airspace of another Arctic state, if Greenland reached state sovereignty, or if the U.S. deployed a freedom of navigation operations in the Arctic region. In total, our scenarios covered two dimensions: governance and security. On governance, potential developments around diplomatic initiatives or multilateral cooperation were tested. On security, the possibility of military conflict in the region or of military intrusions were considered. Two main objectives justified this approach. First, we wanted to evaluate if experts were correct in their predictions. Related to this, we were curious to know which type of issues caused incorrect assessments. Second, we repeated the same scenarios in multiple waves: the objective was to analyze if specific geopolitical developments occurring between waves would change predictions, moving the needle on experts’ predictions