Roman Vakulchuk

A void in Central Asia research: climate change

The environmental burdens of special economic zones on the coastal and marine environment: A remote sensing assessment in Myanmar

ASEAN’s energy transition: how to attract more investment in renewable energy

The energy transition is progressing slowly in the ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). To achieve ASEAN’s target of 23% renewables in the primary energy supply by 2025, the region would need to invest USD 27 billion in renewable energy every year. However, the ASEAN countries attracted no more than USD 8 billion annually from 2016 to 2021. Through a comparative review of three key factors for attracting investment—renewable energy legislation, energy governance reform, and general conditions for investors—this study examines why the region’s renewable energy sector has not attracted more capital. The contribution of the article is threefold. First, it develops a new review model for assessing the business climate for renewable energy in any country. Second, it offers an update on the state of renewable energy deployment in the ASEAN countries. Third, taking into account international best practices, it identifies the obstacles and solutions to attracting investment in renewable energy in Southeast Asia. The article finds that carbon lock-in is pervasive, regulatory practices have been copy-pasted from the fossil-fuel sector to the renewables sector, and, except for Malaysia and Vietnam, no ASEAN country has implemented a major pro-renewable energy governance reform. Certain advanced renewable energy measures, such as auctions and feed-in tariffs, have been adopted in some member states, but the institutional capacity to implement them is limited. The share of renewables in the energy governance system needs to be increased.

Are renewable energy sources more evenly distributed than fossil fuels?

En del publikasjoner om energitransisjon går ut fra en antakelse om at fornybare energikilder er mer jevnt fordelt globalt enn fossilt brensel. Dette impliserer at skiftet fra fossilt brensel til fornybar energi vil sette flere stater i stand til å bli selvforsynte med energi, og bety slutten på deres avhengighet av importerte energiressurser. Denne antakelsen er imidlertid feil, viser forfatterne av denne artikkelen. Energitransisjonen vil kreve handel med elektrisitet eller hydrogen på tvers av grenser, noe som skaper nye internasjonale handelsrelasjoner og muligheter for både samarbeid og konflikt. Denne studien tester antakelsen om jevn distribusjon av fornybare energikilder empirisk og kvantitativt. Studien sammenlikner Lorenz-kurver og kalkulerer Gini-koeffisienter for tre typer fossilt brensel og tre typer fornybar energi i 161 land. Funnene støtter synet om at energitransisjon vil medføre et mer desentralisert globalt energisystem sentrert rundt «prosumer»-land som produserer og konsumerer sin egen energi og i liten grad er avhengige av fjerne land for kjøp eller salg av energi. Men forskjellen i fordeling av fornybare energikilder kontra fordelingen av fossilt brensel er ikke så stor som en annen del av litteraturen går ut fra. Dermed vil ikke internasjonal energihandel og geopolitikk forsvinne helt.

International Cooperation in the Arctic 2035 – The Four Scenarios

The Arctic has always fascinated people; its history, its present, and its future. The future of the Arctic has increasingly become a subject of academic research and the application of scenario methodology. Scenarios can be defined as pro- spective storytelling (Schoemaker, 1993), presenting a set of plausible, contrasting images of the future (Schatzmann et al., 2013), and indicating what alternative futures might look like (Amer et al., 2013). Studies offering scenarios of future development of the Arctic include Brigham (2007), Myllylä et al. (2016), Lazariva et al. (2021), Petrov et al. (2021), Haavisto et al. (2016), and Bourmistrov et al. (2015); see also the chapter by Krivorotov in this volume. The farther we look ahead, the more uncertain the future appears. There can never be full consensus on what major trends and driving forces will have the greatest impact on the future. But precisely for this reason, any kind of structured thought experiment, such as scenario development, is valuable and can add new knowledge and shared understanding.

Fossil Fuels in Central Asia: Trends and Energy Transition Risks

This data article provides an overview of fossil fuel trends in Central Asia from 2010 to 2019. Data on the production, consumption, export and import of coal, natural gas and oil are summarised for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. While promoting renewable energy, Central Asia continues to rely on and expand the use of coal, natural gas and oil with no major phase-out plans yet on the horizon.

The Arctic Environmental Responsibility Index: A method to rank heterogenous extractive industry companies for governance purposes

Arctic Environmental Responsibility Index (AERI) dekker 120 olje-, gass- og gruveselskaper som driver med ressursutvinning i arktiske områder i Alaska, Canada, Grønland, Finnland, Norge, Russland eller Sverige. Den er basert på en internasjonal spørreundersøkelse blant 173 medlemmer av International Panel on Arctic Environmental Responsibility (IPAER). Dataene behandles med segmented string relative ranking (SSRR)-metoden. Equinor, Total, Aker BP, ConocoPhillips og BP rangeres som de mest miljøvennlige selskapene, mens Zarubejneft, ERIELL, First Ore-Mining Company, og Stroygaz Consulting blir sett på som de minst miljøvennlige. Selskaper i Alaska har den høyeste gjennomsnitts-scoren, mens de i Russland har den laveste. Større selskaper gjør det bedre enn mindre selskaper, statskontrollerte bedre enn privateide, og olje- og gasselskaper bedre enn gruveselskaper.

Central Asia is a missing link in analyses of critical materials for the global clean energy transition

The energy transition is causing a surge in demand for minerals for clean energy technologies, giving rise to concerns about the sources and security of supplies of critical materials. Although Central Asia was one of the Soviet Union's main sources of metals and industrial minerals, it has been forgotten in contemporary global critical materials analyses. Here we review the Central Asian mineral resource base and assess its current and potential contributions to global supply chains. We find that the importance of Central Asia lies mainly in the diversity of its mineral base, which includes mineable reserves of most critical materials for clean energy applications. This renders the region important in mineral economics, security of supply, and geopolitical perspectives alike. In sum, Central Asia is likely to become a new hotspot for mineral extraction and a major global supplier of selected critical materials for clean energy technologies.

Local and Global Aspects of Coal in the ASEAN Countries

De siste tiårene har kullutvinning og kullkraft vokst raskt i Sørøst-Asia. Kull spiller en stadig mer dominerende rolle i regionale energisystemer, svekker energisikkerheten i alle landene i regionen bortsett fra Indonesia, undergraver nasjonalt bestemte bidrag (NDCer) til Paris-avtalen, og forsterker eksisterende politiske motsetninger. Forbruk av kull har velkjente konsekvenser for folkehelse, landbruk, vannsikkerhet og økonomi. Mange av disse blir forsterket i Sørøst-Asia, som er tettbefolket og har lite vind og dyrkbar jord. Paradoksalt nok fører det kortsiktige fokuset på å holde kostnader nede til betydelig langsiktig økonomisk risiko, fordi prisen på fornybar energi stadig faller, mens ASEAN-landene fortsetter å investere i kullkraft.

Central Asia is a missing link in analyses of critical materials for the global clean energy transition

The energy transition is causing a surge in demand for minerals for clean energy technologies, giving rise to concerns about the sources and security of supplies of critical materials. Although Central Asia was one of the Soviet Union's main sources of metals and industrial minerals, it has been forgotten in contemporary global critical materials analyses. Here we review the Central Asian mineral resource base and assess its current and potential contributions to global supply chains. We find that the importance of Central Asia lies mainly in the diversity of its mineral base, which includes mineable reserves of most critical materials for clean energy applications. This renders the region important in mineral economics, security of supply, and geopolitical perspectives alike. In sum, Central Asia is likely to become a new hotspot for mineral extraction and a major global supplier of selected critical materials for clean energy technologies.