Publikasjoner
Introduction to Climate Change in Central Asia
The Central Asian region has been and will continue to be significantly impacted by climate change and all the region’s countries have pledged nation- ally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris agreement. This chapter aims to assess how likely Central Asian countries are to fulfil these pledges. To answer this question, we compare the NDCs to their respective national development programmes and historical trends. The results show that the countries of Central Asia vary in their ability to fulfil their pledges and that doing so will require structural changes to their energy systems, substantial investments in infrastructure and, most importantly, the alignment of their development plans with their declared climate goals. None of the countries have thus far engaged in structural reforms aimed at large-scale climate change adaptation and mitigation.
Climate Change in Central Asia: Decarbonization, Energy Transition and Climate Policy
This chapter provides a broad introduction to the impact of climate change in Central Asia, a region that has been experiencing a greater rise in temperatures than other parts of the world. The chapter shows how climate change represents a significant threat to Central Asia, exacerbating existing economic and environmental challenges and fueling regional tensions over resource management. Inefficient water resource management at the national level and limited regional collaboration on the management of water resources, coupled with state capacities that remain insuffi- cient to tackle climate change impacts, compound water-related tensions between the countries in the region. The chapter also shows how decarbonisation efforts in Central Asia are still in their early stages, with coal remaining a primary source of energy. Although the Central Asian countries have announced decarbonisation targets and adopted green economy strategies and programmes to reduce green- house gas emissions, a large-scale clean energy transition remains unlikely in the short term. The chapter concludes by identifying a lack of scholarship on climate change in Central Asia, which limits the development of a coherent approach to climate change mitigation and adaptation and evidence-based decision-making in the region. The chapter argues that a more coordinated approach to tackling climate change across the region is needed, requiring closer collaboration and more effective joint management of natural resources by the five Central Asian states. Finally, the chapter presents the chapters in the rest of the book.
Central Asian Climate Policy Pledges Under the Paris Agreement: Can They Be Fulfilled?
The Central Asian region has been and will continue to be significantly impacted by climate change and all the region’s countries have pledged nation- ally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris agreement. This chapter aims to assess how likely Central Asian countries are to fulfil these pledges. To answer this question, we compare the NDCs to their respective national development programmes and historical trends. The results show that the countries of Central Asia vary in their ability to fulfil their pledges and that doing so will require structural changes to their energy systems, substantial investments in infrastructure and, most importantly, the alignment of their development plans with their declared climate goals. None of the countries have thus far engaged in structural reforms aimed at large-scale climate change adaptation and mitigation.
Energy Transition in Central Asia: A Systematic Literature Review
While there is abundant research on the expansion of renewable energy in developed countries, little attention has been paid to the decarbonisation of energy systems in Central Asia, despite the region’s vulnerability to climate change, its rapidly growing domestic energy demand and the abundance of natural resources essential for the energy transition. Based on a systematic review of the literature, this chapter provides a comprehensive overview of the profile and trajectory of research on energy in Central Asia between 1991 and 2022. It finds that there was a shift from focusing on fossil fuels to clean energy around 2019–2020. However, despite recent growth, research on renewables and their significance in Central Asia is still sparse. This review indicates that while American and European researchers took the lead in this field in 2012, China, Japan, Kazakhstan and Russia have emerged as the leading contributors since 2016.
Oppfattet risiko og beredskap: Misforhold mellom kompetanse og antatt kunnskap om potensielle risikoer?
Vellykket kriseforebygging er avhengig av at ansatte i selskapene kan forutse og vurdere potensielle risikoer. Det skal være en sammenheng mellom hvor god beredskap de ansatte oppfatter at bedriften har for å håndtere fremtidige risikoer, og hvor sofistikert risikostyringssystemet er. Regnskapsbransjen er særlig utsatt for effektene av digitalisering (se f.eks. Frey og Osborne 2013). Vi har derfor analysert små og mellomstore norske regnskapsbyråer for å finne ut hvilken sammenheng det er mellom de ansattes opplevelse av selskapets risikoberedskap og hvor sofistikert risikostyringen er. Resultatene fra en spørreundersøkelse med 81 respondenter viser at respondentene kan grupperes i fire klynger. Empirien viser at det for noen selskaper ser ut til at jo mer sofistikerte risikostyringssystemene er, jo mindre forberedt er selskapene på å håndtere disse risikoene (og motsatt). Vi diskuterer dette ut fra den såkalte Dunning-Kruger-effekten, dvs. at mennesker som mangler kompetanse på et område er uvitende om sin manglende kompetanse. Våre funn indikerer at respondentenes oppfatning av sitt eget selskaps risikosystem og beredskap ikke alltid stemmer overens med virkeligheten. I flere tilfeller viste det seg at beredskapen og risikosystemet var langt svakere, noe som kan lede til finansielle tap. Dette kan i seg selv medføre en risiko. For å redusere denne risikoen kan bedrifter ta i bruk scenariostyring som et supplement til tradisjonell virksomhetsstyring for å forbedre sin beredskap.
Critical Materials for Development: A New Trajectory for Norwegian Foreign Aid Policy
After over a year of war in Ukraine, the world experienced dramatic and negative ripple effects related to food, energy security and commodity markets. Global food and energy shortages are now leading to social instability, protests and conflict and putting increasing pressure on public finances. For instance, prices of basics such as oil and wheat are rising and resulting in severe food shortages in Egypt, Lebanon and Somalia. Low-income countries are likely to be hit hardest by increasing food and energy prices in the long run. As the war continues, various second- and third-order negative effects are likely to intensify.
Criticism of the UK’s Rwanda Policy Misrepresents African Agency
While much of the controversy around the UK–Rwanda partnership is understandable, African perspectives are too often missing from the debate.
Escaping the Long Shadow of Homo Sovieticus: Reassessing Stalin’s Popularity and Communist Legacies in Post-Soviet Russia
It is often asserted that the values and attitudes of Homo Sovieticus, marked in the rising “popularity” of Stalin, live on in contemporary Russia, acting as a negative factor in social and political development. This article critiques the argument that attitudes to Stalin reflect unreformed Soviet values and explain Russia’s authoritarian regression and failed modernization. Our critique of this legacy argument has three parts. First, after examining the problematic elements of the Levada Center approach, we offer alternative explanations for understanding quantitative data on Stalin and the repressions. Second, we examine interview data showing that, for those with a pro-Stalin position, “defending Stalin” is only a small part of a broader worldview that is not obviously part of a “Soviet legacy.” Third, we consider survey data from the trudnaia-pamiat’ project and find common reluctance to discuss much of the Stalinist past, which we argue represents an agonistic stance. Thus, we interpret attitudes to Stalin within a broader context of complex social and cultural transformation where the anomie of the 1990s has been replaced with dynamics toward a more positive identity construct. On the one hand, the antagonistic mode of memory is visible in statist and patriotic discourses, which do not seriously revolve around Stalin but do resist strong criticism of him. On the other hand, we find many more in Russia avoid the Stalin question and adopt an agonistic mode, avoiding conflict through a “de- politicized” version of history.
Cooperation in an Era of Strategic CompetitionEU-NATO Relations in the Context of War and Rivalry
Denne Policy Brief-en ser på det voksende forholdet og samarbeidet mellom EU og NATO. Den er skrevet i kontekst av en retur mot krig i Europa, og økende strategisk rivalisering mellom USA og Kina. Europeere har lenge ønsket å ta mer ansvar for sitt eget forsvar, og det er nå en mulighet til å bygge disse relasjonene.