Publikasjoner
The defence of northern Europe: new opportunities, significant challenges
With Finland and Sweden joining NATO, the Nordics will be united for the first time in a military alliance encompassing not only northern Europe but also the broader transatlantic region. It will eventually fortify northern European security, but several obstacles must be overcome first. NATO has done a formidable job since 2014 in updating its defence plans, cumulating in the Deterrence and Defence of the Euro-Atlantic Area (DDA) family of plans approved in Vilnius 2023. Now Finland and Sweden need to be incorporated into these plans. A more challenging task is to implement NATO's New Force Model which is tremendously ambitious. Finland and Sweden's contributions will be important, but new investments must be made. NATO's Command Structure is yet to be fully reformed and fitted to the DDA. Joint Force Command Norfolk must urgently be staffed, without undue politicization in NATO. Nordic defence buildup can draw on regional cooperation in particular in five areas: in strengthening the area's command design through functional double-hatted headquarters; developing close air power cooperation through e.g. a Combined Joint Air Operations Centre; strengthening total defence cooperation across borders and expanding logistical infrastructure; establishing joint intelligence task forces; and joint training and exercises. The contributions of the United States and United Kingdom are indispensable when it comes to upholding the alliance's guarantee in northern Europe. The recent signing of Defense Cooperation Agreements between the US and the Nordics reinforces this—together with an increased presence of air and naval assets in the region. The same applies to the UK and the Joint Expeditionary Force which now has shifted its focus towards northern Europe. This engagement is a crucial addition to Nordic and NATO plans and activities in a period when growth in Nordic defence structures is occurring at a relatively slow pace. Only after the weaknesses and hurdles are addressed will the deterrence and defence of the region attain a fully credible level.
Is liberal internationalism worth saving? Ad hoc coalitions and their consequences for international security
Slow responses and blocked decision-making of international organizations provide opportunities for ad hoc coalitions to fill functional and political gaps. Compared to UN peace operations, ad hoc coalitions avoid gridlock and high transaction costs, they are fast to set up, can be task and time specific, flexible and easily dissolved. However, they also have much lighter human rights and financial accountability frameworks, a patchy record of longer-term impact and can contribute to a more fragmented response to armed conflicts and threats to international peace and security.
The EU’s international cyber and digital engagements
Digital omstilling blir en stadig viktigere prioritering for EU. Digital omstilling driver økonomisk vekst og muliggjør samfunnsutvikling. Likevel er ikke EUs digitale lederskap universelt anerkjent, ikke heller anerkjennes EUs evne til å levere på feltet. Enkelte stiller spørsmål ved EUs lederskap og visjon om en digital fremtid med mennesket i fokus og rettsstatsprinsipper i bunn. Samtidig begrenses EUs globale innflytelse av manglende evne til å levere på visse kritiske kapabiliteter innen digital- og cyberdomenet. Mens forventningene til EUs rolle har vokst, styres cyber- og digitalpolitikken fremdeles primært mellomstatlig. Denne policy briefen ser på EUs rammer for og implementering av sitt internasjonale cyber- og digitale engasjement ovenfor tredjeland. Hva driver samarbeidet og hva er de spesifikke verktøyene og mekanismene EU iverksetter? Policy briefen vurderer også implikasjoner for Norge.
Friendship in International Politics
I dagens internasjonale ordskifte snakkes det ofte om vennskap og 'spesielle bånd' mellom stater og deres ledere. Siden midten av 2000-tallet har en voksende forskningslitteratur argumentert for at vennskap mellom stater ikke bare kan eksistere, men slike vennskap kan også kan ha stor innvirkning i og på internasjonale politiske prosesser og utfall. Dette bidraget til Oxford Research Encyclopedia gir en innføring i og oversikt over sentrale bidrag til forskningen på vennskap i internasjonal politikk.
Annex to the report 'Norway’s strategic dependencies in global supply chain networks'
This annex is connected to the NUPI Report 'Norway’s strategic dependencies in global supply chain networks' found here: https://www.nupi.no/en/publications/cristin-pub/norway-s-strategic-dependencies-in-global-supply-chain-networks
Norway’s strategic dependencies in global supply chain networks
Economic interdependence and global supply chains are being investigated anew. For a long time, a belief in the ability of growing economic ties to foster cooperation, dampen conflict, and enhance prosperity was predominant in academic and political thinking alike. However, these assumptions have recently proven to be half-truths at best. Rather than dampen conflict, the asymmetries of global supply chains have turned them into coercive tools for the powerful to wield against the powerless. Through sanctions and export controls, states controlling vital chokepoints in global economic networks can cause harm in targeted states, and through controlling the nodes of information highways, intelligence agencies can gain access to sensitive information by leveraging the key position of their domestic companies. For states with small, open economies, this development poses a thorny problem: the toolbox for realigning global supply chains is limited, but reliance on supply chains beyond national control is extensive. The problem is not limited to being in a position of dependence, however. For smaller states, being in control over global assets, or being a key provider of a product or resource others depend on can be a double-edged sword. As economic coercion becomes more widely deployed, the impetus for protecting and securing assets increases, and the risk that they might drag smaller states into geopolitical contests grows. Addressing these concerns, it is vital to develop tools, frameworks, and methodologies for assessing supply chains from a national perspective, with a focus on how economic interdependence might introduce geopolitical risks. Against this background, this report builds on recent theoretical and methodological developments for analyzing global supply chains in light of their potential for geopolitical weaponization. More precisely, it will study Norway’s position in global value chains by combining recent methodological developments on the network analysis of supply chains and recent analysis of country-level aggregated analysis of supply dependencies. This allows for a study of supply chains as networks of economic relations, in which the position of different national economies contains both strategic capacities, or assets, by being central suppliers on which other countries depend, and vulnerabilities, by depending heavily on other countries. The report thus uses network analysis to identify Norway’s positions and their related strategic vulnerabilities and assets. Link to the Annex for this report: https://www.nupi.no/publications/cristin-pub/annex-to-the-report-norway-s-strategic-dependencies-in-global-supply-chain-networks
How does climate change affect peace and security?
This comic is based on findings from our series of Climate, Peace, and Security Fact Sheets, which aim to present reliable, relevant, timely and actionable information and analysis on climate-related peace and security risks in selected countries and regions on the United Nations Security Council Agenda. The Climate, Peace, and Security Fact Sheets are a joint product by the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), with funding from the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The information in this comic does not necessarily reflect the views of the donor.
A role for state governments in social licensing for renewable energy projects in Mexico
In Mexico, energy governance has mainly been a federal matter. However, the state (regional) governments, motivated by environmental and climate concerns, economic development opportunities, and social community needs, have recently started to explore ways to facilitate renewable energy development. But although state governments claim renewable energy reduces energy poverty and express support for a just transition, these projects do not seem to have social licenses—explicit support for them to proceed—at the local community level. The discrepancy between rhetoric and reality is related to the way these projects are negotiated and implemented. In this policy brief we examine two paths that the Mexican states can take to improve the social licensing of renewable energy projects. First, they can establish a framework for ethical conduct and evaluation of the potential impacts of renewable energy projects, including elements such as adherence to international standards, inclusive planning processes, and environmental and social impact assessments. Second, they can implement proactive, engagement-focused measures that empower state and local governments to facilitate renewable energy projects and reduce transaction costs.
Mapping renewable energy policy development at the state level in Mexico
This report maps renewable energy policy development at the state (provincial) level in Mexico and tracks early experiences with renewable energy deployment in four selected Mexican states. “Renewable energy policy” refers to the policy instruments that state governments have adopted to facilitate renewable energy deployment (e.g., long-term climate and energy strategies and subsidies), and the institutionalization of these instruments through the establishment of state entities responsible for their implementation (e.g., state energy agencies).
Blikk på EØS 30 år
Norge har gjennom 30 år vært knyttet til EUs indre marked gjennom EØS-avtalen. Dette har ifølge foreliggende forskning ført til en kraftig vekst i handelen og en økning i realinntekten på 2-6%. I tillegg kommer andre gevinster, for eksempel administrativ innsparing ved å ha et felles regelverk i EØS, og velferdsgevinster av felles miljøregulering i Europa. EØS-avtalen er unik ved å ha et omfattende felles regelverk som oppdateres løpende. Tusenvis av EØS-bestemmelser er del av lover og praksis som folk og bedrifter møter hver dag uten nødvendigvis å vite at de skyldes EØS. Østutvidelsen fra 2004 gjorde EØS til et integrert og voksende marked med over 500 millioner innbyggere, og har ført til økonomisk og sosial utjevning i Europa ved at de nye medlemslandene har tredoblet inntekten. Innvandrere fra nye EU-medlemsland har høy yrkesdeltaking og står nå for ¼ av innvandrere i Norge. EU er fortsatt Norges klart viktigste partner med rundt 60% for både handel og investeringer. I EØS-området har handelen mellom og med nye medlemsland vokst raskest. For handelen med varer har EØS ført til et sømløst felles marked for de sektorer som omfattes. Også for tjenester har EØS ført til sterkere integrasjon, men forskjeller mellom nasjonale reguleringer begrenser fortsatt handelen. Fullføring av det indre marked for tjenester er viktig for små og mellomstore bedrifter, og viktig for å skape effektive verdikjeder i Norge og Europa. Norge har i EØS-perioden hatt en betydelig bytteforholdsgevinst på grunn av sterkere prisvekst for eksport enn for import, og handel både i og utenfor EØS har bidratt til dette. EU har de siste årene lempet på regelverket for statsstøtte i det indre marked, dels motivert av det grønne skiftet og subsidier i Kina og USA. Dette fører til en ny industripolitikk med nye samarbeidsformer der EFTA kan delta, men med noen utfordringer. Digitalisering har skapt nye globale utfordringer der EU spiller en ledende rolle som regulator, med virkninger også for EØS. Spesielt har felles regulering i telesektoren gitt store gevinster og bidratt til konkurransedyktige digitale tjenester. I det nye handelspolitiske klimaet blir skillet mellom hva som er innenfor og utenfor EØS gradvis mer uklart. Et eksempel er klimapolitikken, der Norge gjennom EØS deltar i EUs system for klimakvoter, men det er uavklart om Norge skal innføre EUs karbonavgift på import fra tredjeland (CBAM). Samarbeidet med EU påvirker i økende grad handelspolitikken overfor tredjeland, der EFTA tradisjonelt har hatt selvstendighet. Den nye geopolitikken fører også til handelspolitiske utfordringer som ikke dekkes av EØS, og der EFTA ikke har noe klart svar samtidig som EU innfører nye virkemidler. På noen områder, for eksempel eksportrestriksjoner og sanksjoner, har Norge et stadig tettere samarbeid med EU.