Testing peace policies before they reach the ground
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Stabilisation policies in conflict areas often produce effects nobody planned for.
In this episode, Research Professor Cedric de Coning (NUPI) is joined by Dirk Bruin and Tomas Veloz of the Center Leo Apostel for Transdisciplinary Studies at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (CLEA). The team brings together political science, mathematics and computational modelling.
They discuss The Adaptive Peace Simulation (APS). The aim of the tool is to help policy makers and researchers to test the effects of different policy choices in a simulated, computational version of a conflict system before committing actual resources or exposing real populations, to the risks of stabilisation interventions.
“Without this kind of modelling, you would try something, and after a couple of months you would discover the unintended consequences,” says Cedric de Coning in the podcast episode.
Tune in to listen to de Coning Bruin and Veloz discuss the science behind the tool, its development and results thus far in the process.
Listen to the episode here:
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Further reading:
Veloz, T., De Coning, C. and Bruin, D. (2026), “Modeling and Simulating Complex Conflict Management Using Reaction Networks”, Entropy 28(7), 754.
- See all publications and acticities from the CPS-Lake Chad project here.
- Want to learn more? Tune in to previous podcasts from the poject here:
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The episode is part of the NUPI-led project Managing Climate, Peace and Security Risks from the Borderlands of the Lake Chad (CPS-Lake Chad). The project is funded by the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) through the Cross-border Conflict Evidence, Policy, and Trends (XCEPT) research programme.
The CPS-Lake Chad project studies the effectiveness of the Regional Strategy for the Stabilisation Resilience and Recovery (RS-SRR) in the Lake Chad Basin region for preventing and managing climate-related peace and security risks.