Kacper Szulecki

Populism, Energy Transition, and International Politics

This handbook provides a methodical, comprehensive, and unifying overview of the vibrant yet disparate scholarship on populism and foreign policy. By mapping the debates and existing findings, as well as presenting the different conceptual and theoretical lenses, the handbook provides new insights as to how, whether, and to what extent, populism influences foreign policy. Carefully selected international contributors connect their own work to others to offer a thorough, theoretically informed, and empirically tested academic treatment of the topic across a number of cases where populist actors are, or have been, in power. Divided into four parts (Concepts and Theories; Factors and Processes; Actors and Structures; Issues and Policy Areas), the diverse and comprehensive insights on the global, cross-regional, and transnational dimensions of populism will be of interest to scholars and students of international relations, political science, public policy, foreign policy, political theory, populism, and area studies. This text will also be of interest to those working from the perspectives of Sociology, Law, and History, as well as to the practitioners of international politics.

Energy

Energy is not a political science concept. It originates in physics and describes “a fundamental entity of nature,” best understood as “the capacity for doing work.” Furthermore, as the Encyclopaedia Britannica notes, it “may exist in potential, kinetic, thermal, electrical, chemical, nuclear, or other forms,” to which Merriam-Webster dictionary adds that it can be “transferred between parts of a system in the production of physical change within the system.” At the same time, energy is a frequent object of political discussions, due to the fundamental role it plays in modern societies. Energy generates welfare through ceding human physical labor to work done by machines, from home appliances to steelworks; it provides the physical comfort of adequately heated or cooled surroundings; it makes possible the mobility achieved through modern means of transportation. All of these rely on the conversion of energy resources into energy services. Socioeconomic development is correlated with increasingly higher energy consumption (Destek & Sarkodie, 2019). The fundamental and omnipresent nature of energy and its importance for sustaining modern livelihoods are expressed with the often-used metaphor of the “lifeblood of society.” This has political consequences, as access to energy services at a certain level and affordable price is the foundation of social contracts, leading to popular discontent when these are not provided.

The Political Afterlife of a Nuclear Catastrophe: A View from Poland

The Chornobyl catastrophe fractured whatever trust remained in Poland's government after five decades of Communist rule, transforming pharmacy queues and playgrounds into spaces of political awakening. Exploring how environmental catastrophe sparked mass civic mobilisation, Szulecki asks whether these lessons can inform struggles for democratic control over nuclear infrastructure in Europe amid war and climate breakdown.

Delays in nationally determined contributions often reflect credibility efforts and not weakening ambition

Fashionably or fatally late? exploring NDC procrastination in the UNFCCC

The current global climate change mitigation regime established by the Paris Agreement rests on a “pledge-and-review“ mechanism with the cyclical submission of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to progressively increase climate ambition. Following the 2023 collective review, the so-called Global Stocktake (GST), Parties were required to submit updated NDCs by February 2025. Yet compliance has been strikingly low: only 16 of 198 Parties met the deadline, and even after an extended September cutoff, just 64 submissions were recorded, covering roughly 30% of global emissions. We examine the phenomenon of NDC procrastination – the widespread delay in meeting procedural obligations – and its implications for the climate regime. Drawing on 23 country case studies, compliance reports, and fieldwork at the climate summit in Bonn, we identify four clusters of factors behind delayed submissions. Financial and institutional capacity challenges include resource constraints, reliance on external technical assistance, and complex whole-of-government coordination requirements. Technical and data-related challenges stem from gaps in emissions inventories, modelling expertise, and recalibration needs when baselines shift. Political and governance challenges range from domestic uncertainty (elections, coalition changes) to geopolitical shocks, armed conflict, and instances of ‘green backlash,’ where governments actively obstruct climate policy. Finally, procedural and strategic dynamics encourage states to delay pledges for performative or tactical reasons. While these factors can explain why many parties were late with their submissions, the question of what NDC procrastination means for the future of global climate action is more complex. While NDCs are visibly treated more seriously by many, and considerable resources are channeled into the work on pledges, the scale of non-compliance underscores the fragility of procedural norms. Furthermore, the post-GST round of delayed pledges highlights the tension between detailed, economy-wide pledges aligned with domestic policies and ratcheting up mitigation ambition at a pace needed to tackle dangerous climate change.

The uneven influence of the Global Stocktake on national climate policy and the NDCs

Den globale statusgjennomgangen (the Global Stocktake - GST), som vart avslutta på COP 28 i Dubai i 2023, vert rekna som ein sentral del av Parisavtalens ambisjon, ettersom han er meint å vurdere den samla globale framdrifta, noko som skal liggje til grunn for framtidige nasjonalt fastsette bidrag (NDC-ar). Mange kommentatorar og partar sette store voner til gjennomgangen sin evne til å skru opp ambisjonsnivået i prosessen under FNs rammekonvensjon om klimaendringar (UNFCCC). Etter toppmøtet i Dubai, som resulterte i det omfattande «Resultatet av den globale statusgjennomgangen» (avgjerd -/CMA.5) med nær 200 detaljerte avsnitt, venta somme partar at GST skulle styrke den samla innsatsen mot klimaendringar. Meir kritiske røyster gav likevel uttrykk for uro og bekymring knytt til det dei kalla «å erstatte Parisavtalen med den globale statusgjennomgangen», som innebar å gå bort frå den nasjonalt fastsette og differensierte tilnærminga som vart avtalt i 2015. Dette notatet ser nærare på GST sin innverknad på nasjonal klimapolitikk og NDC-ane.

Energy as a tool of statecraft after Ukraine and Gaza

Krigene i Ukraina og Gaza har endret hvordan energi fungerer som et verktøy for statsmakt, og viser at moderne energirelatert makt strekker seg langt utover handels manipulasjon. Direkte angrep på elektrisitetssystemer, drivstoffinfrastruktur og til og med kjernekraftanlegg har blitt et sentralt trekk ved moderne krigføring, og avslører sårbarheten til høyt elektrifiserte samfunn. Disse angrepene, kombinert med skjerpede former for økonomisk tvang som sanksjoner, prisgrenser og omstrukturering av markeder, understreker utilstrekkeligheten i det tradisjonelle begrepet om «energivåpen», som snevert fokuserer på forsyningsavbrudd fra eksportstater. I stedet formes dagens energisikkerhetslandskap av gjensidig avhengighet, infrastruktursårbarhet, cyberrisiko og endringer utløst av det globale energiskiftet. Etter hvert som avkarboniseringen skrider frem, flyttes sårbarheter fra brensler til teknologier, verdikjeder og kritiske råmaterialer, noe som skaper nye geopolitiske asymmetrier og strategiske avhengighetsforhold. For europeiske beslutningstakere krever disse utviklingene en nytenkning av energisikkerhet som prioriterer systemisk motstandskraft, beskyttelse av sivil energiinfrastruktur og integrerte tilnærminger til økonomisk statshåndverk, forsvarsplanlegging og klimapolitikk. Å forstå energi som både en strategisk ressurs og et potensielt angrepsmål er avgjørende for å navigere i en fremtid der energisystemer blir stadig mer sentrale for konflikt, tvang og geopolitisk konkurranse.

Fokusnummer: Norge og EU i endring

Hva gjør man når EØS ikke lenger er tilstrekkelig? Dette fokusnummeret av tidsskriftet Internasjonal politikk setter søkelyset på de utfordringene Norge står overfor når EU endrer seg og en krevende tid setter norske interesser under press. Marianne Riddervold, Pernille Rieker og Tine Elisabeth Johnsen Brøgger har skrevet om utfordringene innenfor sikkerhet og forsvar, Guri Rosén om handel og økonomisk sikkerhet, Frode Veggeland og Martin Stangborli Time om helseberedskap, Merethe Dotterud Leiren, Marie Byskov Lindberg og Kacper Szulecki om energiomstilling, og John Erik Fossum og Trym Fjørtoft om demokratiets stilling i Europa. Redaktør Pernille Rieker har også skrevet nummerets leder.