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Tine Gade
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Tine Gade er seniorforsker i Forskningsgruppen for fred, konflikt og utvikling. Hun har sin ph.d. i statsvitenskap fra Sciences Po i Paris, og jobber i hovedsak med temaer knyttet til protestbevegelser og forholdet mellom stat og samfunn i Midtøsten.
Gade har tidligere vært Max Weber Postdoctoral Fellow ved European University Institute i Firenze og førstelektor ved Institutt for kulturhistorie og orientalske språk ved Universitetet i Oslo. Hun har gjort dyptpløyende feltarbeid i Libanon og Irak, og har tidligere vært bosatt i Egypt og Syria.
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Tøm alle filtreLiban : les paradoxes du salafisme djihadiste levantin
Le Liban est un contre-exemple des recherches sur la guerre civile, qui souvent surévaluent le potentiel de contagion transfrontalière des conflits. En dépit de nombreux facteurs qui aurait pu entraîner l’expansion au Liban de la crise en Syrie, les débordements restent limités, comparés à la violence de l’autre côté de la frontière. Malgré les liens historiques étroits entre les champs islamistes syrien et libanais, le nombre de Libanais sunnites ayant rejoint les djihadistes en Syrie est réduit (environ 1 000 personnes). C’est avant tout la surenchère confessionnelle et la rancune vis-à-vis du Hezbollah qui pourraient entraîner un nombre plus important de jeunes sunnites vers la prise d’armes. Si Daech ou Al-Qaïda misent sur cette option, et si les frustrations politiques et économiques d’une partie des sunnites ne s’atténuent pas sous le nouveau gouvernement, les risques de violence et de discorde civile, à long terme, demeurent plus que réels.
Hvorfor feilet Vesten i Syria?
Fordømmelser er forblitt tomme ord, og motsies av Vestens ambivalens overfor Assad, skriver Tine Gade.
Lebanon poised at the brink
Gravely affected by the Syrian crisis, Lebanon has remained relatively stable against all odds – despite the influx of some 1.5 million Syrian refugees and an internal political crisis involving supporters of opposing Syrian factions. Lebanon’s resilience can be explained by the high opportunity cost of state breakdown for domestic, regional and international political actors. Moreover, international economic assistance, diaspora remittances and informal networks established by refugees help to prevent outright economic breakdown. However, stability remains extremely precarious. Primary tipping points include (1) an IS strategy to spread the conflict to Lebanon, with consequent disintegration of the army along sectarian lines, (2) democratic decline and people’s dissatisfaction, (3) Hizbullah’s domestic ambitions and Israeli fears over the group’s growing military powers and (4) the potential that frustration between refugees and host communities may erupt into recurrent violence. The slow economic and sanitary decline in the country (5), however, is considered the biggest challenge.
Alawittene i Tripoli og Nord-Libanon: Krigerske problemskapere eller truet minoritet?
Lebanon on the brink
Gravely affected by the Syrian crisis, Lebanon has managed to remain relatively stable against all odds – despite the influx of some 1.5 million Syrian refugees and internal political crisis involving actors who support opposing Syrian factions. Lebanon’s resilience can be explained by the high opportunity cost of state breakdown for domestic, regional and international political actors. Moreover, international economic assistance, diaspora remittances and informal networks established by refugees help to prevent outright economic breakdown. Yet, stability remains extremely precarious. Important tipping points include (1) the IS strategy of spreading the conflict to Lebanon, and the consequent disintegration of the army along sectarian lines, (2) democratic decline and popular dissatisfaction, (3) Hizbullah’s domestic ambitions and Israeli fears over the group’s growing military power and (4) the potential for frustration between refugees and host communities turning into recurrent violence. However, (5) the slow economic decline and the worsening sanitary conditions stand out as the greatest challenges.
Libanon på kanten av stupet
I kjølvatnet av Syria-krigen har Libanon mottatt 1,5 millionar flyktningar og blitt ein bufferstat mot IS. Kva forklarer landets robusthet mot valdsringverknader frå Syria?
Boklansering: Eksterne makter og den Arabiske våren
Kva rolle spelte stormaktene under den arabiske våren?