Somalia: A Political Economy Analysis
Somalia has been without a central authority for more than a quarter century. An entire generation is growing up without experiencing stability and security, basic human rights, and economic prosperity. There is no functioning central government with authority over the entire country, extreme weather impacts the country unmitigated, and social challenges such as corruption are rampant. This bears several risks, such as support for radical Islamist groups, such as Al-Shabaab, posing a threat to domestic and international security, or a brain drain with large number of people fleeing the instability and conflict in Somalia. Informal governance actors, formal local authorities, and the private sector have filled the gaps in providing security, education, and health services. Yet, powerful formal and informal, national as well as international actors have vested interests in a weak state or governance failure, with conflict and instability becoming self-perpetuating. This political economy analysis sheds light on the actors, their interests, and power relationships, thus providing a better understanding of these arrangements and their relation with the wider state-building efforts.
Withdrawal under article 50 TEU: an integration-friendly prosess
Article 50TEU acknowledges the right of Member States to withdraw from the EU, and contains a specific procedure. It also constitutes the legal basis of an exceptional EU competence whose purpose is to ensure that a Member’s departure is “orderly”. This qualification entails the conclusion of an agreement between the parties on the terms of the withdrawal, but also presupposes that the withdrawal does not undermine the integrity of the EU legal order, while contributing to the fulfilment of the Union’s integration objective. The unprecedented exercise of that competence has enriched the law of European integration: core components of the constitutional identity of the EU have been (re)affirmed, the role of its institutions bolstered, and Union membership law further articulated. Paradoxically, withdrawal may therefore be envisaged as an integration-friendly process.
Nordic responses to Brexit: Making the best of a difficult situation
This policy brief examines how the British decision to withdraw from the EU has influenced the political debates in and foreign policies of the five Nordic states – Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden. With the exception of Iceland, all these countries had a stated preference for Britain to remain in the EU – not least due to historical ties and the tendency of Britain and the Nordic countries to have similar approaches to European integration. Three general findings can be highlighted: First, Brexit has featured prominently in political debates in all the Nordic countries since the British referendum, and the causes and consequences of the Brexit vote continue to be discussed with vigour. In all the Nordic countries, Brexit has also stirred debates about their current relationships with the EU, prompting EU critics to demand new privileges or opt-outs. Overall, however, the Nordic governments, supported by a stable majority among their populations, have signalled that they wish to preserve their EU membership or current forms of association models, with the access and benefits these provide. Second, for all the Nordic countries, securing good relations with Britain post-Brexit is a key priority, but they have generally indicated that maintaining good relations with the EU must come first. Finally, the Nordic governments are well aware that Brexit could create a vacuum in EU policy-making, perhaps tipping the balance among internal clusters. Britain has been a highly visible member of the ‘Northern’ grouping in the EU, and its absence is likely to be noticed. As the Nordic countries are about to lose what has at times been a powerful ally in EU decision-making, they may have to forge new coalitions to safeguard their interests.
Haiti: A Political Economy Analysis
Haiti is governed by a small economic elite and the majority of its poor and marginalized population has no access to power. This report analyses the historical roots of the deep socio-economic and political cleavage in Haiti and the consequences of repeated cycles of foreign interference, economic liberalization policies, increased food insecurity and natural disasters. The report reveals that the elections in 2010/2011 and 2015/2016 only served to exacerbate this cleavage. The elections in 2016 had a record low participation of 17.3%. Many of Haiti’s poor abstained from voting due to lack of confidence in the elections, as well as due to extremely difficult socio-economic conditions post-earthquake in 2010/2011, and post-Hurricane Matthew in 2016. Since the earthquake in 2010, there has been a heavy presence of international actors in Haiti. Whereas several of these actors put pressure on Haiti to hold elections relatively short time after the disaster, most of the foreign actors, and particularly the United States and the EU, showed little concern about fraud and low voter turnout. The elections brought President Michel Martelly to power in 2011 and President Jovenel Moïse to power in 2016, both of them representing the economic elite in Haiti. They invested in agribusiness and special economic zones benefiting the economic elite, but further marginalizing small-scale farmers. These two presidents also succeeded in reestablishing the Haitian Army, an institution with extremely bad reputation in Haiti, due to its past severe human rights violations.
Impact of non-tariff barriers on trade within the Eurasian Economic Union
How great is the impact of non-tariff barriers on trade in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and how much will internal trade grow if they are eliminated? The Treaty on the EAEU declares removal of non-tariff barriers as a common goal. This article estimates the impact of non-tariff barriers on trade in goods in the EAEU based on 2010–2015 trade data. The empirical approach draws on the Haveman and Thursby disaggregated model. The estimates show that various trade-growth effects can be observed in different trade groups if non-tariff barriers are reduced or fully eliminated. Agriculture and the food industry have the highest growth potential: around 40% growth with a 50% reduction of barriers. The highest growth potential is found for trade between Belarus and Kazakhstan. The most significant effects are observed for member-states that are small in terms of the size of the economy and for which the internal trade share is large.