Ti år med økonomiske reformer på Cuba og vegen vidare
Kor vellykka har økonomiske reformer vore på Cuba? Og kva alternativ finst det?
European Defence and Third Countries after Brexit
The UK’s departure from the European Union has given energy to the process towards ‘ever closer Union’ in the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). Many policies and initiatives have been brought to the table in the aftermath of the referendum that created shock waves in Europe. This policy brief takes stock of the developments in European defence integration since the Brexit referendum in June 2016. Contrary to the dominant political and public debate about those developments, and the political optimism inside the EU, the brief identifies some key obstacles towards expanded European defence integration. With the UK’s exit from the EU, the ‘third country’ role in the CSDP will inevitably be altered, as one of the largest military powers in Europe will stand outside of the EU. For current third countries – like Norway and Iceland – this should lead to caution regarding immediate participation and a pragmatic approach to the developments. Energy and resources should not be invested before post-Brexit institutions and practices have been established.
Tanzania: A Political Economy Analysis
This report provides a comprehensive political economy analysis of contemporary Tanzania. Focusing on developments since the election of John Magufuli as President, it traces the evolution of the country´s political economy. Three main developments are emphasized. First, significant efforts have been made at addressing corruption, reforming public service practice, and maximizing public revenues. Second, there has been a clear shift towards a state-led model of economic development. This reconfiguration is unfolding in an increasingly competitive political environment and in the context of long-standing symbiotic relationships between politics and business. Third, there has been an increasingly restrictive approach towards civil society. Representatives of the public have been arrested and detained, and open political gatherings have been banned. The potential impact of these changes on the political settlement are complex. Factionalism within the CCM in recent years have been characterized by repeated cases of grand corruption. Still, there has been remarkable party cohesion, related to the fact that the factions belong to a narrow elite, which with ultimately has shared interests. Effective state-led development faces several challenges. Political capacity to direct long-term developmental change has been challenged by the development of factions within the CCM. Moreover, there are limits to the state’s capacity to formulate and implement policy. Uncertainty over public finances, particularly regarding international commercial borrowing, will, in the short term at least, stymie efforts to make the public service more effective. The greater political challenge is that posed by CHADEMA. With the 2015 elections, it consolidated itself as the leading political opposition in mainland Tanzania, with stable leadership and a solid organization in much of the country. CHADEMA´s relationships with Tanzanian private-sector interests leave its supporters open to targeted actions by tax and regulatory authorities. The state´s repressive approach towards civil society reflects the level of threat perceived by the ruling elite. External issues – like shifting relationships with donors, the emergence of new international allies and financiers, and security threats from transnational groups – are more tangential to the future direction of the Tanzanian state. Their impact will depend on trajectories in the areas of political and administrative capacity, relations between capital and the state, and the levels of political and civic organization beyond the party and the state. Dialogue with development partners has remained generally poor, a decline that set in some years ago. Like other countries in the region, Tanzania is increasingly attracting investment and public debt finance from China, from emerging powers like Turkey, and from others with an investment interest in Tanzania, such as the Gulf states.
Russia’s New Asian Tilt: How Much Does Economy Matter?
The economic development of Russia’s Far East has been proclaimed a policy priority, to be facilitated by an ambitious turn or ‘pivot’ to Asia. This chapter assesses Russia’s economic reorientation towards Asia, offering an overview of the Far Eastern dimension of Russia’s economic relations with its major Asian partners in 2010–16, based on analysis of the dynamics of investment, trade relations and business climate development. Since 2014, trade with Asian partners has stagnated, while foreign investment (except for Chinese) has remained negligible. Moreover, trade is still mainly oriented towards markets in European Russia. The chapter concludes that Russia’s pivot to Asia has not yet become an economic pivot—and that such a turn would be more easily attainable under a non-sanctions regime.