Forsker
Arne Melchior
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Sammendrag
Arne Melchior forsker på internasjonal handel og global utvikling, handelspolitikk og internasjonale økonomiske institusjoner, internasjonal ulikhet, geografisk økonomi og regional utvikling. Han har særlig arbeidet med Asia, India og Kina. Melchior avla doktorgrad i økonomi ved Universitetet i Oslo i 1997. Tema for avhandlingen var internasjonal økonomisk integrasjon.
Melchior har ledet forskningsgruppen for internasjonal økonomi på NUPI i flere perioder, og har vært assisterende direktør ved instituttet i tre år. Han har erfaring fra internasjonale handelsforhandlinger som departementsansatt, inkludert multilaterale forhandlinger og bilaterale forhandlinger med flere asiatiske land. Han har ledet en rekke forskningsprosjekter.
Ekspertise
Utdanning
1997 Dr. polit., Institutt for økonomi, avhandling: On the Economics of Market Access and International Economic Integration.
1981 Internasjonal økonomi og europeisk integrasjon, College of Europe, Brugge
1990 Cand. polit, økonomi, Universitet i Bergen.
Arbeidserfaring
1989- Forsker/seniorforsker/ass.dir./avdelingsleder ved NUPI
1981-1987 Førstekonsulent/byråsjef i Handels og sjøfartsdepartementet
Aktivitet
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This study analyzes TTIP, its implications for Norway and Norway’s trade policy choices. TTIP will hardly be concluded under Obama's presidency, but the agreement could become a reality within a few years. TTIP aims at comprehensive cooperation in the regulatory area. In the short term there will be limited harmonization of standards but regulatory cooperation between different systems. In the long term, the goal is stronger cooperation in the regulatory area. TTIP will from what we know not lead to a lowering of European health regulations or a "race to the bottom". If TTIP is realized and Norway remains outside, the EEA Agreement will be little affected and the overall economic impact is moderate. If Norway joins TTIP, there will be a significant real income gain, with estimates ranging from 2236 to 6772 NOK per capita in the various scenarios. There is considerable variation across sectors. With Norway outside TTIP there will be a moderate negative impact for a majority of the sectors, especially some manufacturing sectors that face tougher competition in the EU and USA export markets. The oil industry will benefit from increased demand and higher prices. If Norway joins TTIP, a clear majority of industries will benefit; especially business services and a number of other service industries. The public sector gains from TTIP, mainly due to cheaper inputs. TTIP will contribute to the dismantling of import protection for Norwegian agriculture and without compensating measures, production and employment will be reduced. TTIP will still allow some import protection and this margin of maneuver, which depends on future negotiations, is important for the outcome. With a larger margin of manoeuvre and unchanged budgetarty support, most of Norway’s agriculture can be maintained. With less margin of manoeuvre, it will be more challenging. Norwegian accession to TTIP may occur in the form of a standard trade agreement in which Norway or EFTA are formally equal to the EU and the United States. Alternatively, Norway may participate in a European pillar as in today's "Open Skies" agreement on air traffic. If TTIP succeeds in establishing comprehensive regulatory cooperation, the latter solution is most likely. Such a solution implies that Norway will become more closely integrated with the European Union also in trade policy towards third countries. Norwegian entry into TTIP implies that we have to accept the established rules and negotiate bilaterally with the EU and the USA on market access. The negotiations with the USA will apply to all aspects of market access, while negotiations with the EU will apply only to areas in which the EEA agreement is not already deeper. The negotiations with the EU for TTIP entry will thus include, among other issues, tariffs for seafood and agriculture. As an alternative to membership in TTIP, Norway or EFTA may initiate a trade agreement with the USA. Such an agreement would likely be less extensive in the regulatory area. Such an agreement will also provide an economic gain for Norway, but less than accession to TTIP. For Norway as a whole, accession to TTIP creates a real income gain between 12.5 and 35 billion NOK according to various scenarios, while a free trade agreement with the United States results in a gain of about 7.4 billion NOK. TTIP also includes negotiations on so-called Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS), whereby foreign-owned companies can sue a state if they are unfairly or inappropriately treated. Such rights also exist in national law but international tribunals have to some extent extended the interpretation of what is considered unfair. The European Union has proposed a solution in TTIP with a permanent court as well as rules that discipline the interpretation of the principles, and thus avoids that ISDS unduly interferes into the states’ "right to regulate". This and many other issues are analysed in this report and six background papers.
Food Price Differences Across Indian States: Patterns and Determinants
The paper examines food price differences across Indian states during 2004-2014 using food consumer prices from household surveys and wholesale/retail prices for selected goods. At the individual product level there are large price differences across states, with prices doubling or trebling across India for a typical case, but with considerable variation across products. Price dispersion is still high but considerably lower for food on average; measured at this level price dispersion between Indian states is considerably lower than between countries within the same income range, and Indian states are slightly more integrated than countries in Western Europe. At the product level, the most important determinants of price differences across states are limited access to supply from other states, and the extent of own production in the state. Richer states have higher consumer prices, but this income-price link is weaker for wholesale prices. Food price dispersion within India has decreased during the period studied. For policy, the results suggest that India should eliminate obstacles to inter-state trade in order to promote food security and the real income of its citizens. The magnitude and importance of price level differences also suggest that better price level data should be provided in the future, to facilitate further study of India’s regional development.
TTIP and third countries: The role of trade policy spillovers
Some recent analysis of TTIP has predicted a more positive outcome for third countries because it was assumed that that trade barrier reductions in TTIP also benefited third countries in the form of ”trade policy spillovers”. The article examines the conceptual and empirical foundation for such spillovers and concludes that they are real and a potentially important phenomenon, but current estimates related to TTIP are uncertain and need a stronger theoretical and empirical foundation. Spillovers take different forms and vary across sectors and trade policy measures, and they often reach only a subset of countries rather than the whole world. The fear of trade diversion from preferential trade agreements (PTAs) can also create ”domino effects” whereby third countries initiate new agreements. Some trade policy spillovers can be expected from TTIP, but ”domino effects” are likely more important than the global diffusion of standards. The main reason is that regulatory differences between the EU and the USA limit the scope for harmonization of standards in TTIP.
Food Price Differences Across Indian States. Patterns and Determinants.
The paper examines food price differences across Indian states during 2004-2014 using food consumer prices from household surveys and wholesale/retail prices for selected goods. At the individual product level there are large price differences across states, with prices doubling or trebling across India for a typical case, but with considerable variation across products. Price dispersion is much lower for food on average; measured at this level price dispersion between Indian states is considerably lower than between countries within the same income range, and Indian states are slightly more integrated than countries in Western Europe. At the product level, the most important determinants of price differences across states are limited access to supply from other states, and the extent of own production in the state. Richer states have higher consumer prices, but this income-price link is weaker for wholesale prices. Food price dispersion within India has decreased during the period studied. For policy, the results suggest that India should eliminate obstacles to inter-state trade in order to promote food security and the real income of its citizens. The magnitude and importance of price level differences also suggest that better price level data should be provided in the future, to facilitate further study of India’s regional development.
TTIP og Norge: Virkninger og handlingsvalg
Denne studien analyserer TTIP-avtalen, dens virkninger for Norge og Norges handlingsvalg. TTIP-forhandlingene blir neppe avsluttet under Obamas presidenttid, men avtalen kan bli en realitet i løpet av få år. TTIP tar sikte på omfattende samarbeid på reguleringsområdet. På kort sikt blir det begrenset harmonisering av standarder men samarbeid mellom ulike systemer. På sikt er målet sterkere samarbeid på reguleringsområdet. TTIP vil ut fra det vi vet ikke bety en senking av europeiske helsekrav eller et “kappløp mot bunnen”.
TTIP: Consequences and implications for Norway
Norsk utanrikspolitisk institutt inviterer til eit ope seminar kvar resultata frå prosjektet “TTIP: Consequences and implications for Norway» blir presentert.
Brexit – ein norsk rapsodi?
På dette seminaret vil Dr Nauro Campos presentere resultata frå rapporten sin “Norwegian Rhapsody? The Political Economy Benefits of European Integration”. I tillegg vil han gi oss eit breiare perspektiv på post-Brexit Storbritannia.
Konsekvenser for Norge av en TTIP-avtale og norske veivalg
NUPI har sammen med andre forskningsmiljøer i Norge og utlandet analysert virkningene for Norge av en frihandelsavtale mellom EU og USA (TTIP – Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partn...
Food Security in India: the Interactions of Climate Change, Economics, Politics and Trade (FOODSEC)
Klimaendringer truer systemer for matproduksjon og levebrød for en betydelig andel av Indias befolkning. Dette prosjektet undesøker de potensielle effektene på matvaresikkerhet. ...
Trade Integration, Geopolitics and the Economy of Russia (TIGER)
Prosjektet analyserte hvordan handelsintegrasjon er koblet til geografi, geopolitikk og Russlands dreining mot Asia. ...