A nuclear future and the evolution of the military dynamic on the Korean peninsula
North Korea’s nuclear program continues unabated and there is little prospect of a resolution to this seemingly intractable issue. The Kim regime, contrary to international law, is developing and testing a series of new missile and nuclear capabilities including more survivable missiles and tactical nuclear weapons that are increasingly difficult to defend against. At the same time, South Korea is investing in a series of conventional capabilities aimed at deterring and defending a North Korean nuclear attack. Consequently, there is increasing concern in the policy and academic discourse about strategic stability on the Korean Peninsula.
Navigating ASEAN-Myanmar Relations: The Phnom Penh Summit as a Critical Juncture for (Dis)Engagement
This article considers recent internal developments in Myanmar and how they strain external relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It identifies ASEAN’s Phnom Penh Summit as a critical juncture for disengaging the military government, engaging non-political entities and upgrading the 2021 Five-Point Consensus.
The Abe Legacy
Med det fryktelege drapet på tidlegare statsminister i Japan Shinzo Abe er ein viktig, men ikkje fullt ut ukontroversiell, politisk æra i landet over. Som Japans lengstsitjande statsminister lèt Abe etter seg ein viktig arv i politikken i landet, men også med tanke på kva rolle han ønskte at Japan skulle spele på verdsscena. I denne policy briefen deler NUPI-forskar Wrenn Yennie Lindgren og Richard Nakamura sine syn på implikasjonane som Abes bortgang har hatt for internasjonal politikk og økonomi.
The China-Europe Freight Train and the War in Ukraine:Triumph and Tribulations in Transcontinental Shipping
I denne policy briefen analyserer professor Xiangming Chen China-Europe Freight Train (CEFT), som er flaggskipet i Kinas belte- og vei-initiativ (BRI). Chen evaluerer CEFTs omfang, effektivitet og tilpasningsdyktighet basert på den senere tids geopolitiske utviklingstrekk, spesielt krigen i Ukraina.
NUPI tildelt tre nye prosjekter fra Forskningsrådet
Katharina Glaab
Katharina Glaab was a visiting research fellow at NUPI in the Research Group on Russia, Asia and International Trade.
Technological Determinism and Challenges to Deterrence in Southern Asia
Southern Asian strategic stability is fragile with multiple challenges affecting crisis stability, deterrence stability, and arms race stability. With rapid scientific developments, technological advancements are translating into new advanced military capabilities at a much faster rate. As countries move to achieve technological superiority, they are exploring ways to exploit “gray zones” or areas where their adversaries’ deterrence is the most vulnerable across various domains. Cross-domain coercion adds to the fragility of deterrence. In this environment, India and Pakistan must initiate a bilateral dialogue to discuss South Asian strategic stability with a focus on minimizing the drivers of instability and strengthening mutual deterrence. A joint publication by APLN and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI).
The Economics of Strategic Stability in US-China relations
The economic aspects of strategic stability tend to come second place in the study of US-China relations. For good reason, scholars have focussed on the military aspects of strategic stability, including the role of emerging technology and cyber capabilities, in this most important geopolitical relationship. Yet, considering the ongoing War on Ukraine, as well as tensions over Taiwan, it is worthwhile considering the effect coercive economic tools such as tariffs, sanctions and embargoes, can have on wider strategic stability.
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Contemporary Nuclear Dynamics in Southern Asia: Many Challenges, Few Possibilities
In this Policy Brief, Dr Manpreet Sethi, Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi, assesses the increasingly dangerous security situation among Southern Asia’s three nuclear weapons powers: China, India, and Pakistan. She proposes several concrete policy steps that, if taken, will greatly reduce the risk of an inadvertent nuclear exchange.