Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Somalia
Somalia experienced its worst drought on record from 2021 to 2023, with an unprecedented five consecutive failed rainy seasons that displaced hundreds of thousands of people, undermined livelihoods and raised the spectre of famine in some areas. From August 2022, clan militias and the Somali armed forces launched operations against al-Shabab in some of the most drought-affected regions. As climate change and conflict continue apace in Somalia, the need for robust analyses and responses to climate-related security risks has never been greater.
Klima, fred og sikkerhet i Somalia
The Paris Agreement’s inherent tension between ambition and compliance
Partene i Parisavtalen møter et økende sosialt press for å heve ambisjonene sine, og dermed redusere gapet mellom individuelle løfter og kollektive temperaturmål. Selv om dette er avgjørende for å stimulere til positiv endring, spesielt siden Parisavtalen mangler en håndhevingsmekanisme, er det også viktig å vurdere hvilke negative konsekvenser sosialt press kan føre med seg. For det første kan det undergrave Parisavtalens fleksibilitet, som lar land utforme sine bidrag i henhold til nasjonale forhold og evner. For det andre kan det føre til omfattende mislighold ved å oppfordre til løfter som de berørte landene ikke ønsker, eller til og med ute av stand til, å oppfylle. Skulle det skje, kan tilliten til Parisavtalen og dens institusjoner svikte. Det er derfor behov for ytterligere forskning for å identifisere rammebetingelsene for sosialt press til å fungere effektivt innenfor internasjonal klimapolitikks domene.
The Paris Agreement’s inherent tension between ambition and compliance
Parties to the Paris Agreement face mounting social pressure to raise their ambition, thereby reducing the gap between individual pledges and collective temperature goals. Although crucial for inciting positive change, especially given that the Paris Agreement lacks an enforcement mechanism, it is also important to consider social pressure’s potential negative unintended consequences. First, it might undermine the Paris Agreement’s celebrated flexibility, which allows countries to design their Nationally Determined Contributions according to domestic conditions and capabilities. Second, it might result in widespread noncompliance by inciting pledges that the countries concerned prove unwilling or even unable to fulfill. Should that happen, confidence in the Paris Agreement and its institutions might falter. Further research is therefore needed to identify the scope conditions for social pressure to work effectively in the domain of international climate policy.
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Leonard Seabrooke
Leonard Seabrooke er professor i internasjonal politisk økonomi og økonomisk sosiologi ved Institutt for organisasjon ved Copenhagen Business Scho...
Considering ecological security from the perspective of Arctic ecosystemic politics
This brief essay is part of a book forum on Matt McDonald's book (2021) presenting the idea of ecological security. In the essay, I reflect on progress and prospects for Arctic cooperation and governance in order to consider the promise and limitations of McDonald’s ecological security framework. The Arctic is an instructive example for such an exploration. The longstanding post-Cold War cooperation in the Arctic is strongly rooted in an appreciation of the interconnected nature of the Arctic ecosystem, even as the governance mechanisms remain far from what would qualify as an ecological security approach in McDonald’s sense. Nonetheless, I suggest that especially two aspects are instructive from the Arctic example. The first relates to how ecological security would potentially interface with an already quite full landscape of governance practices rooted in ecosystems, and associated power political genealogies and effects. The second point is a reflection on unfolding events, seeking to explore how continued inputs from other forms of security governance could impact on emerging or partial attempts to govern with an ecological security perspective. Here, the status of Arctic cooperative governance after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is an illustrative example to consider. Both points can be read as impediments limiting the applicability of the ecological security framework. However, as McDonald argued, impediments are not the same as absolute limits (2021, 192) and potential obstacles are explored here in the spirit of advancing possibilities for ecological security.